Transcript for Election Night 2012 Pre Show - Your Voice, Your Vote - from ABC News and Yahoo News
This is an ABC news Yahoo! whose life story election night you were voice you won't vote. You Martin Harris Amy Walter and of the Vietnam it's. Everybody have their hair salons that ABC news political director Amy Walter and Yahoo! News White House correspondent Olivier Knox depending on how you -- it. And a -- had -- how -- your -- is it's been about two years of campaigning and now is finally over it's in the hands of the voters. And we could be heading into a drawn out nail biter of a night all over the country the lines -- long -- people cast their ballots. Among the voters Mitt Romney himself seeing here with the wife and in their hometown. A Belmont Massachusetts listen to what he has to say. -- -- The president made a surprise and it's one of his campaign field offices in Chicago here's what he had to -- -- -- -- -- His supporters and doesn't need -- Yeah yeah. Republican veep nominee Paul Ryan hit the polls -- his three kids in his home state of Wisconsin which is a big battleground -- that team Romney hopes that. -- -- helpful -- that statement tonight and there was a revealing moment when vice president Joseph Biden went out to vote. In his home state of Delaware listen to this exchange. He prediction for thought. I can feel these slots unreasonable fears of things. I don't think -- it. Subtle there's yeah begun repeating -- -- say yes dean campaign that's a full employment act for political -- everywhere. We have a lot we -- to get to during the course this electrical organ start with -- get you worked for team Romney. -- -- -- -- is doing great thanks for joining us so the latest ABC news tracking poll number shows the president. Pulling ahead for the first time -- tractor pull up by three points 5047. When you see this as it give people in your office park -- you feel like the wind. Is behind your opponent in this homestretch. Now not -- -- in fact we feel really good about where everything stands these all of that tightened in recent days. And I gotta tell you because governor Romney's closing message of having more jobs and higher take home pay but the enthusiasm that we've seen really goes to that gusted to those numbers. We have our offices in the states is brimming with volunteers. And if you look at our rallies where act capacity because -- -- -- Pouring out to see governor -- and hear his message and they believed that he can win in sped away. I think that went into our back and these these calls -- so tight acting that it's going to be a long night but at the end of the night they'll be at the fact that Romney victory. Let's talk on the one state that the governors visiting today and that's Pennsylvania State that hasn't been on the map for most of his campaign sort of popped up at the end. Tell us how you see a governor Romney winning. The state of Pennsylvania State that's a -- at Republicans for quite some time. Well first of all -- I think it's a great question and Pennsylvania -- on our map -- just the right time in which we think. That timing is everything. -- -- Time it. We started we went there on Sunday and we had just an incredible event -- there is a large crowd. A lot of energy and enthusiasm in the states and we've seen those numbers close every bit the last couple of days. -- yesterday when we were talking about what governor Romney was going to be doing on Election Day we had and is going to vote. And he said now I -- -- campaign you can't -- he won't sit down on this last day won't hold that they'll open in important states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. -- is there -- some some number above which -- -- you're predicting a Romney victory. Is there -- some number about which the that he would have a definite mandate to govern you think he just needs to win by eighty points by one Electoral College vote -- -- say. Just at the end of the night does this Webber wins. Have. A clear mandate next four years. Now you -- I I -- -- very question but I don't think that you can put any kind of number on it. -- the next president of the United States is going to be elected by the people and you know -- -- I wouldn't put any kind of Electoral College number on it. But what it's -- what's going to be important about tonight is that when they're there is the winner. That and we expect that -- to be governor Ronnie. That he's his first goal is to going to Washington and make it work again you heard him talk over the last couple of days on the campaign trail about. Needing to reach across the -- and he's encouraged people across the country to reach. To their neighbors across the street who perhaps have another guy's yard sign -- -- art. I think that no matter who wins by how much it's going to take some bipartisanship. To get this country moving again. -- know we know you everybody worked with have been networking incredibly hard -- must be -- -- really appreciate. All of your time on this culmination today it would only hope that is -- after the be a campaign. Thank you again we really appreciate it. That was -- from delegate -- from the Romney campaign and me let's talk about how to get to seventy that's the magic never. It is magic map I have imagined that it's it's it's it's working just on magic realist you know yes there's no -- is just magic now but this is. As we know that the the popular vote is very important but it's the electoral college -- elects the president. And this is the current path right now you see these white states here these are considered the tossup states we have Pennsylvania leaning blue. As night is -- to -- -- this is a state that. Republicans say they want to fight in every time and -- they always come up short in large part because of the eastern part of the state Philadelphia and the suburbs very democratic. So to win tonight I think what. What for both parties here's here's a pathway for. For for for President Obama it really does go through the following states it's his firewall out here. In the midwest Ohio Iowa Wisconsin. An Iowa he put those together he can lose all those other white states he comes up with 270. -- The math gets a little bit harder though. When you look at. What Mitt Romney needs to do here so let's say he does win Florida. And he captures Virginia. Two states that books that have been. Leaning in. Well Florida certainly leaning toward Romney Virginia much more competitive and we can't forget we should know -- pretty soon -- but if -- -- him. -- Wisconsin alludes him. -- he does have many more pathways to go here so it's a much. Tougher road but Ohio and Pennsylvania there's a reason he's spending his time there those are the two states. Ohio with eighteen electoral votes -- his nineteen he gets one of those. He's at 268 and -- he can lose Iowa Colorado Nevada Wisconsin Ohio. Hollywood need to do is pick up New Hampshire -- When -- Marinate in this electoral map for just a few moments and I'll. Not only we have Amy -- we will hold murderer's row of Yahoo! News correspondents and and columnists including to my left Walter Shapiro. And Jeff Greenfield. Thank you both for being here what do you think about the various Pat's -- what's the best case you can make -- we do well here for Romney getting. -- -- is that there's the Paul Ryan. That fundamentally. That -- of the way I've always -- was that John Kerry states plus. In this case. -- Obama is already it is being here in New Mexico. He's almost certain from everything -- we -- So -- really. It really -- pretty much. Romney who run the table and the real thing is. Wisconsin off. That would -- for me if you think all of active came back from. Five days -- all the 580. -- Now -- certainty that something should be very yours this point it. For -- we appreciate you being for personal life asked to use the word five's. Yet let me turn you wouldn't -- -- late game -- by Romney for Pennsylvania viable. Two months -- that. You don't pennsylvanians. Is to the Republicans what. Lucy and the football presidential. They always had this for years ago with McCain. You know that they only see potentially twenty electoral votes it's got a lot of conservative pro life folks between Philadelphia Pittsburgh and and white working class people even in those cities we can get him and since 1988. They happen but if Walters right. News five's -- in that -- going for Obama he's got to take something. And it -- -- looked -- the money nobody was campaigning intensely and he would be the ultimate. We -- unexpected result of the state everybody Mitchell the -- Obama probably before we ears lips what we're when he was saying. We're getting. We're engaged in manly art of getting make up a place where cases in that room back there government I don't have used it to -- -- -- can't -- If Obama loses Pennsylvania means he had some really bad pollsters that was made at age group. It because and one of the reasons Obama seems to be likely to win Ohio. Is that they were in very early. They did the whole demonization of Romney. As a rich guy the -- the -- who destroyed loves to destroy jobs the man who has Cayman island bank accounts. Then the 47%. Comments -- punctuated that. Obviously if they were confident about Pennsylvania. None of that. Characterization. Of Romney took place in Pennsylvania and that is why. If somehow. Obama loses Pennsylvania. I would not like these pollsters trying -- for the next president. Let reality get it over to you talk about Virginia for those of us who really walking tonight early wise Virginia so potentially important in terms of signaling how the rest of the night. But it's a great battlegrounds -- got a lot of Electoral College votes but the way it works is really looking to see not just who wins but by what margin. Because tonight where carries the state meaning it. If it's a landslide either way. Because certain we're concerned looking for echo effects across the landslide I don't think -- either you know the Obama folks earlier today were saying they were they were. Happy because they're seeing high turnout. In Northern Virginia Virginia heavily democratic. Part of the state so they're they're already seeing what they -- where they're saying that they're seeing a lot of a lot of positive signs there. They put a lot of African language and he made a lot of stops there it's not on interestingly it's not on his list. Of interviews -- -- the president a budget of cable television news today there is when he DC that's alien to reach people in Northern Virginia. They put a lot of effort into getting state and they're actually they've they've they feel fairly confident that I Italy's this morning were -- just watch the margin of victory -- that. Must closely guards at this this issue of -- what to watch something we're all over as our coverage continues tonight. You are looking at it. He -- I am and in -- you can do this at home as well you can followed -- abcnews.com assigned Saddam watching force and -- is a great place to go. In terms of the signs in of which counties to vote for we -- the counties that count. Prince William county is the one in Virginia I think that we will all be paying very close attention to this is suburban Washington DC fast growing -- -- This is suburban women we've been hearing a lot about them and also -- growing Hispanic population those are two groups of people that Barack Obama's gonna need to win again he won them in 2008. But who need to win them again he's gonna -- -- us. I'm also looking at some of his early vote number you know this is sort of fascinating to me is the fact that Election Day while it is very important has become less important. And it was at Jon Karl -- -- election months into it is an entire month we have almost a third of the country may be more than a third of the country that has voted for the polls even opened. And in some of these early state and some of these battleground states Colorado Nevada 6070% of the vote is already been cast. So looking at some of those numbers there you see that the Obama campaign still ahead in the early vote in places like Iowa which is going to be -- very important. But behind in Colorado. Are those signs going to tell us who's gonna win that state. While they're here is not tell him that -- -- -- any other specific times we cumulative work well I'm you know I'm also paying a lot of attention to be diversifying electric demographics is destiny that is the that's the model but the Obama campaign has been writing on witches that white voters -- continuing becoming smaller share of the electorate. Mitt Romney's only path to winning the nomination goes through. Winning overwhelmingly among white voters even as he loses nonwhite voters African Americans Hispanics by big big big margins so. What percentage of the vote in these battleground states and nationally is white -- not like it's gonna tell -- -- -- and watching very closely social media tonight the debates. Were huge social media events and deputy county senior editor -- -- Covers the entire Internet for us on the life and -- what are you looking for time. Well I think I -- to to divide and actually what I'm doing there. And we are looking to see what the volume is going to be up and down. Social media this evening so as you mentioned at the debates that the most heated political event in US history now the traders along around that long. With the first presidential debate with ten million. If you think about what we're at four years ago four years ago in the note the post election note that Twitter posted about volume what they were -- it congratulated Barack Obama having the first presidential Twitter handle so. We're obviously -- -- really different place and more. Are do you think that tonight has had any chance of being the kind of social event of the debates were -- other means that you're going to be looking at target people will be watching the coverage and debt. And making gifts and whatever it is. It'll be a lot -- -- participatory. Involvement as well people taking photographs of the lines at polling places between art scene. -- folks at the signal -- -- this morning on Twitter to me what people were sharing around the election. And we are seeing consistent volume of around 500 feet per minute since -- 7 AM eastern time this morning of people. Commenting on the long lines but they're seeing -- polling places but we're seeing much more volume closer -- 2000 tweets government around people just saying hey I voted I went out. I went my polling place and PV one thing that we've been picking up to is this idea of actually picking a picture of your ballot -- you're standing in about. The voting there's. Is is actually not. Kosher it's actually illegal to take a photo of while you're in there and a lot of people now worried about the fact that -- -- grand. The -- so if you go on to answer for every now and you going to be explores how -- you can search for people who attacked their photos with vote. -- as an hour ago there were over half a million photos that people had uploaded thing. Hash -- vote. It. Citizen media law project is one organization has pulled to gathers statistics around -- but in states like Nevada Texas and Michigan there are actually got to some place prohibiting you from taking photographs your polling places and shouldn't be doing. Maybe this is a good time for last minute campaign. Blitzing we got that president doing big long round of TV interviews. How much are we seeing and in social media we -- some last minute tweeting by any difference. -- absolutely -- Biden chaired a photo of himself that the polling place this morning. I'm also -- Donald spotting and who has its own Twitter account shared a photograph of the Republican candidate and but Joseph when he did not -- He did not is to -- his ballot. -- would be really hit ballot with friends and he's probably broad Ngo but as well -- thank you a question to -- -- group here. Role of our -- -- person's -- and the. Poll number that stays with me -- -- the NBC Marist poll out of Ohio I think was released Saturday. Do you approve of Obama's handling hurricanes and 73 precinct gas disapproved 7% yes. And that clearly signifies. That at minimum. It was help to Obama how much to help I don't know was this the -- -- -- Will Republicans and some -- it was if running loose snow -- the the numbers show that Obama was beginning to improve his position before hurricanes and but in this instance in 2004 John Kerry and -- -- the state thieves the release of the Osama bin Laden tape made the difference. I think you're going to hear. The Republicans. For the next six years it will we we were we were -- we have this up for one -- Barbara senators this morning and sandy came in and stop the movement control whether it's true or not is less relevant and it will be key talking point if the Republicans. Hill I think -- I think you're exactly right and that. At least what we are seeing before hurricane Cindy we were talking about the slot. All of us the possibility. Of an elect -- popular votes. That OK think that the battleground states Sandi didn't -- much of an impact but it could have an impact on popular and that's what we saw in our own poll. Jeff is right at the numbers started to move and close. Before seeing it in terms of President Obama making up some territory he lost after the first debate. I think what sandy did is it. We left the -- last taste in the -- of voters a good one of of the president. And that could be the difference between winning the popular vote. And not winning it. If it is a big hit if Romney loses alleviate -- is Chris Christie. Going to complain but members of his own parties as you know he lavishly praised. Obama's response to the -- that's -- that's a great you're already seeing some admittedly anonymous carping about Chris Christie rule last week or so. In -- sandy took him off the trail it's. I don't Rania of Jordan -- with the Christie as a surrogate. You know it -- this there's an anonymous Romney advisor quoted him enough and post complaining that Chris Christie wouldn't even come to rally and Pennsylvania. This past week while obviously Chris Christie wasn't gonna go out of state do a political campaign rally I think if anyone believe that -- they were you know. Believe pulling themselves. Pumping you're already hearing some complaints to the saying well you know this is to Christiane the trail that's gonna hurt us -- this is like like Pennsylvania -- whether states. It's -- -- a reaction to see whether the Obama folks credit that you -- bear hug. Four straight games I'd be surprised if they did that on -- some Republicans. -- a -- -- distance from the campaign saying look if this is common. Bipartisanship -- times of a disaster frequent frequently see the governor -- -- depending on the president for a lot of things federal aid. Rushed to embrace that the person who could be attacked you know on the opening the damage due to federal money. I'm as it's not that common. It's certainly going to be fun to see how they -- Romney folks take the -- role and described in the coming days. So not only is there the presidential race on the Internet that we've got some pretty things that -- Patrick. You know two years ago. We sat down and said that he -- -- could take control of the senate you look at the math and say boy. This is going to be really tough for Democrats hold on -- this they have 23 seats up just a handful of seats up on the Republican side most of the seats up for. Democrats in really red states like Montana and North Dakota. Places like Missouri. And then over the course of this election what we've seen is a combination. Of luck bad luck. And some bad recruiting and some bad candidates have really helped out Democrats so much so that there is talk now that Democrats may actually increased their majority. There's nobody talking. About the reality of Democrats losing territory and a house were not expecting to see much. Not expecting much maybe. Before five seats one where the other -- Democrats picking up -- a handful. -- district this is a redistricting year its parent a -- district near a presidential year but when you do. You -- -- that the impact of what I have. The election before redistricting redistricting here so important Republicans got control of the state legislatures they drew lines to help. There candidates and that has hurt. -- can say whatever about how it. For those who care about the house is one very early race to watch. It Kentucky's takes us to Louisville suburbs it's Ben Chandler -- imperiled. Moderate Democrat. And another tough race in a state where Obama's going to get wiped out. So if Chandler holds on I would suggest that you might downplay your expectations. For Republican gains in the house. But -- and I asked this and that we're different we -- -- -- early. Thing you'll now I ask this question oval table this is an all in everybody in the pool -- -- response. The if the chattering classes and the chattering class and that and the polls are right and we have a long history chattering class and the penalty wrong but if there right there were looking at. A likely scenario where we have the incumbent winning and no change in the house of the senate and six billion dollars spent on this campaign give or take. What have we gained if anything if the predictions -- and where where does that leave and leave us in terms of solving big problems that this country -- From apart from the fund bottom line for radio and television stations leaves -- where we work. There's absolutely no reason to think it's gonna move the needle -- -- John Boehner is already soon forget -- revenue increases even on people one million. You know -- famous quote from a Herb Stein. Nixon's economic advisor simply can't go on forever won't I'm beginning to think he's wrong about the gridlock and dysfunction of the congress. Deep that the political incentives just aren't there for compliment. Well I think and let me just one other thing if it ends up like this particularly on the presidential level with the Obama winning. Let -- save the fiscal acumen. Of -- Republican donors. Two large Republican super -- might be quite. Where that these are supposedly genius businessman who made so much money. But it's quite possible they participated. Income transfer program from them to Republican campaign consultants -- -- Right and then there against income redistribution so it. -- bear that in mind as the night continued one last guess -- -- -- get -- in this important this is available -- -- team Obama and Chicago event can hear us. Designated funds so does it give you any anxiety that your rival is hitting Ohio and Pennsylvania on this final day and your guy is -- -- -- Well. What the president's focus on today is turning -- supporters in key states across the country and making sure that. Voters on the way to the polls hear his message is doing a series of satellite issues in battleground states across the country but look he's been. Crisscrossing the country. On what day he campaigned nonstop for 48 hours I think. Voters in key states had seen him out there working for it now the time is to. To turn out our supporters we've got more than 208000. Volunteers should spilled across the country today we want to make sure that they're not focused on building events they're focused on getting their friends and neighbors. To the polls. Then among it'd just go off the political and on ten more the emotional a for a moment here we saw the president getting. Quite emotional last night in actual tear rolling down his face there in Iowa and just curious what. We're sure what's going through your head in the folks -- -- -- with now for the last how many months in that campaign headquarters in Chicago -- -- coming up on. Really the final hours of the final campaign. That's right and and you know many of us have been here in Chicago for 600 days. But we feel like we all started in February of 2007. When this unlikely journey. Began in the first place what's incredible about this team -- well we've always brought in new blood that the core of it has remained intact. For years and it was a bunch of people who believed. In the president when nobody thought he would win. We proved that organizing on the grounds still matter. More than money. It did and it's been a long. -- several years working through. Many challenges that the nation face it's certainly good to see old faces just about everybody -- -- involved in the first campaign. Is back here making call message to voters to turn them out today and it's it's a very memorable experience so any tears -- done your face now about. -- that at night well I -- -- emotional I've -- -- god here comes the emotional question that's not my that's the. Here we -- the question Olivier as part of and I guarantee -- -- in this -- -- -- manhandled -- anyway. So we talk a little bit about -- six billion dollar stimulus package for for the media in this election. Mark Knoller be an official archivist for the white house press corps -- out there today. That by his by his count the president did a 101 rallies in nine states 20021 fundraisers in 24 states. Who is the president reaching with a TV interview to say Colorado today and why should why should we expect it to make any difference after this kind of. Will look we're not saying that the whole election will and -- doing this at a satellite interviews today we laid the ground work. Starting in April of last year building this campaign on the ground in states across the country. To have those teams on the ground intact today he knew everybody in their neighborhood who was supporting the president. Everybody who was on. Decided but ultimately I think that final pitch from the present himself to reach those small sliver of voters who are either undecided. Or undecided about voting it's important some of the interviews he's been done in the past few days. Have been unlikely venues on the radio Ryan Seacrest for example to remind young people that. -- fifteen million young people who weren't old enough to vote for the present the last time around. They're very supportive if they go out and vote will get a long way towards reelection president. And the -- notwithstanding -- totally disappointing lack of emotion -- appreciate your time. Yeah all right there are adamant hope we get a break when this thing is over we all -- it's over tonight and speaking of tonight. All of us will be back here starting at seven. Until this thing ends we'll be covering it the combined forces of ABC news and Yahoo! News reporters at an all battleground states the -- -- Amy. And Walter and yet and Phoebe and be here trying to add some minimal amount of value as well. You can. Tweet us at hash tag your vote we'll have local results all night long. Season.
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