Predicting Colorado's Impact on the 2016 Election

ABC News' Clayton Sandell talks with University of Denver political science professor Seth Masket and local reporter Mark Stewart about Colorado's role in the presidential contest.
10:45 | 11/08/16

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Transcript for Predicting Colorado's Impact on the 2016 Election
Again it's Clayton Santo here at ABC news were coming to you from the beautiful University of Denver campus here on this special Election Day FaceBook live cast thank you for joining us. I'm here with University of Denver a political science professor Seth mask it and also contributes to 538. And reporter extraordinaire from our ABC affiliate Mark Stuart. Came GH TV. Here in Denver thanks guys for coming back and we're gonna give a little snapshot of what's going on in terms of Colorado's sort of Fayette swing states. Developing is just me and I guess here in recent years where is it negative picture what's going on here. This election cycle. Start stuff with you talk about this of the state of the race and it seemed like Hillary Clinton had almost. Pulled their ads over the summer what's it been like here. Yeah we usually expect Colorado to be a swing state it's been very competitive since 04 at least and then just this very quiet here Hillary Clinton was ahead pretty substantially in the polls. Neither campaign was really running any ads the remaining candidate visits and all of sudden the race I mean really nationally it tightened up and this is one of the places where we saw some in those movements in Trump's direction and now they've been. They've been visiting a lot and have been running a lot of ads. Talking about visiting with talk about the ground game mark because. There seem to be and not a lot of visits and then also on this flurry of visits just over the last week. Well just like the Denver Broncos had to throw that in both parties kind of have their playbook. In the past the Democrats at a really strong formula. And this year that kind of upped the ante almost did me a very direct appeal to Latino voters mobilizing that meeting them one on one door to door visits with a policy really. Increased their presence especially courting Latino voters a social media with FaceBook and Twitter. The Republicans. Have had success on the ground as well but they've been a little bit more shy about sharing their strategy. But they have had some success attacked two years ago. They had success winning a senate seat I tried to press him Republican leaders not exactly what is it that you're doing but. They keep that playbook sacred and secrets. I'm. Struck out eighteen hours because they are rolling. Part of the electorate like what 15% and how important is their votes they. It's very important we don't know exactly how many get a chance to but I I think they were at about 14% of the electorate. Back and that's when he twelve elections. Their numbers have been increasing. In the electorate with each passing cycle they've also been becoming more and more democratic with each passing cycle so they can really make the difference her for Clinton. And I assume markers are talking of people who Latino is are are not supporting Donald through very heavily in the stands. Well they obviously are leaning toward the democratic candidate Hillary Clinton which is an artist prize based so the statement. But the thing is if he talked to Latino voters here in Colorado. Their top concern is a necessarily immigration which I think a lot of people think is a natural go to. It's the economy it's jobs it's health care but I think that they feel natural comfort at least here in Colorado toward Hillary Clinton. Well before I want to remind everybody that is watching. Right down here in the comments section you can leave us a question and producer Carol is over there watching for the questions and show weigh in if you guys have something you would like do you. Ask either sat or mark here. The down ballot races a little bit. Have it down ballot races had an impact Rahm Trump's comments back Access Hollywood. Done it probably the most eye reaction that we've seen has been and six congressional district. Where Mike Coffman is running for reelection in NC he's in a pretty tight race and he's been under some pressure to. Both distanced himself from trump and to show some support for trump from some from a Republican activist in his district. Mark will be seen in that district and that's been tight race lot of outside money. A lot of outside money a lot of advertising that we are seeing more advertising but this six district congressional race between Morgan Carroll and my coffin. Then we have in the presidential race some of it has been paid for by the candidate itself but we have seen these pack at some of them have been. Pre targeted pretty net nasty. Mike caught that has been targeting Morgan Carroll's record while the state legislature working Carroll has been targeting my coffee and because of his. What's it lackluster distant scene with Donald Trump. Pointed out to his his statements his comments and like many national candidates it says this someone you want to see an office. Most. Of the congressional seats here in Colorado are either safely with the incumbent Republican or Democrat but it is this race that could. Possibly slipped to the Democrats in the US House of Representatives. What do what area do you predict about weather how that race is. This particular race it's actually really hard to call I mean. I guess best example we have of it was four years ago. When I'm when Kaufman was running against much less well known state legislator. And only won by a few thousand votes. And said it's in a presidential election this is a very competitive district Kaufman has done what he can to. Moved to the center and kind of short as votes but it's it's really hard cholera. Yet the district is six congressional district is is kind of a wild card. Eight used to be heavily democratic but because of redistricting has become. A lot more conservative. However has a large immigrant population has a very large Latino population so efforts have been made to court those boaters but. I think sex is right that spits the race in leasing Colorado when the big ones to watch we'll talk. I think one seat before redistricting by something like 66% up man barely kept it quiet at two points. Last time he may be fighting that there's life here. Yes it's a really tough one win when he first one he was replacing Tom Tancredo would resign it is very outspoken very arch conservative candidate and Kaufman was very much in that mold and he's had to really. Kind of handled himself toward the center as his district to change. About mail in voting this is something the Colorado hasn't done with the presidential election before. Democrats had the lead in in early voting Republicans and cod up. You've written a little bit about this on 538. What can we read into the early voting numbers here in Colorado what can we read to these numbers. It's it can be difficult in any state to predict the final vote outcome from the early votes simply because who votes early is not necessarily saints are people. Who'll show up on Election Day and maybe a little younger a little more attentive to what's going on politics. That said and you know as of this morning I think something like three quarters or more of the of the whole electorate is probably voted already. And some private pretty good sense of how things are going right now it looks very tight Republicans have a slight advantage. But there's a huge percentage of unaffiliated voters who are just starting to make up their minds now and we don't really know how they voted. And that's what they can ask you mark about because. There is via the voters here are split almost in thirds really. Colorado really defines the wild wild west people don't necessarily follow their true party lines. Democrats actually support Republicans and many issues and Republicans support Democrats and any issues that perhaps the rest of the country would would raise an eyebrow about. This is really an independent state people are vary issue base. But along the lines of early voting I thought it was interest in the other day I was talking to a county clerk. Who told me that he expects 10% of people actually vote in person in his swing county because he feels. There's at least going into this week there were some I notes particularly that Hillary Clinton's and FBI investigation that he felt there was going to be a good chunk of voters are gonna wait until the last minute. Actually vote in person so even though we have an L and system we actually may see some lines in suburban Denver today. Any predictions on how things are gonna go tonight I mean is is there there. If Hillary Clinton wins for example this will be the third time in the road that Democrats won the presidential race here Colorado that's never happened here before. What he has to. Well we've seen. In the last few cycles this state run about a point or two more democratic than the nation as a whole. And so assuming if if the polls are accurate Hillary Clinton is winning nationally by about three or four points it's probably more like 45 points here. But there's a lot of uncertainty in these polls right now more so than we usually see in presidential elections a lot of people haven't been able to make up their mind until the last minute. And there's more support for third party candidates and they're usually is it's hard to know how. People have been supported their party candidates are gonna end of voting how have the third party candidates been doing in this race. Well Gary Johnson in particular has done certainly better the libertarian candidates usually do I mean his support was up close to 10% for awhile their but it's fallen now it's probably five or 6%. And and that's pretty typical usually see third party supporters and of going toward one of the two major parties. In the last few days before an election. This may be an unusual year you have an usual presidential candidates we might see. More people stick with him or another candidate. Wool wrap this up before we go where to both of you think Colorado's nine electoral votes are going to well. Highly the predictions have to set because he studies that the math in this signs and and data all all of it but it is a fact of the state. Has been leaning blue just remembered this Colorado 13 of the voters are Republican 13 are Democrats the other third are independents and so for that reason. We RC to watch it makes us a little more purple sun times. So I think it's a wild card but I think if you look at the stats I think Santa probably agree we are probably leaning toward the loot but we have this independent streak and sometimes there are some prices. All right Mark Stuart from my came GH TV here in Denver set basket with the University of Denver thank you both for joining us in Albany inside and what's going on here in Colorado. And thank you for joining us. We do we get any questions producer Carol. Or did. If you talk about Hispanic vote and nuts or someone wanted to know what what would bring Hispanics adding cholera it was r.s issued voting took it. But if you mentioned that a little better layers yeah I mean you know immigration has been such a hot topic. But I think that if he talked C Latino voters in particular they make a point to say. Yes it's a concern it's an issue that he and today. We want to know about education we wanted to jobs with why no let the economy we won't know what our future so I think. This isn't always on about minimum wage is on the ballot here me. You know it's all about the pocketbook is all about the economy. All right guys thanks so much for joining us here on FaceBook live and ABC news we will see you next time it out and vote.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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