POLL: Obama Surges on Electability, Challenges Clinton on Leadership

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April 16, 2008

Obama now leads Clinton, as noted, by 62-31 percent as having the better chance of winning in November; he also owns the "change" mantra, leading by 56-35 percent as the one who'd "do more to bring needed change to Washington." And he leads by 53-30 percent as more honesty and trustworthy; even among women, a more pro-Clinton group, Obama leads on trustworthiness by a 16-point margin (it's 35 points among men).

It's a close Obama +5 on the candidate who "better understands the problems of people like you," with men and women dividing, and an equally close Clinton +5 on being the stronger leader -- an attribute on which Clinton was +24 in February, and +41 back in September against Obama and John Edwards combined.

Clinton, then, is down to a broad advantage on only one attribute tested in this poll -- having the better experience, on which she leads Obama by 67-24 percent. The question is whether it's enough.

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone April 10-13, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,197 adults, including an oversample of African-Americans for a total of 213 and an oversample of Catholics for a total of 292 (both weighted to their correct share of the national population). The results have a 3-point error margin for the full sample, 4 points for the 643 leaned Democrats. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.