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Daily Tracking Poll: Not Just Economy and Bush; Palin Is Trouble for McCain Too

Obama Leads McCain 54-43 in Latest ABC News/Washington Post Poll

Contacts are higher in the 18 battleground states and five-toss-up states (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana) as identified by the ABC News Political Unit. McCain campaign contacts are reported by 35 percent in the battlegrounds and 38 percent in the toss-ups; Obama contacts, by 37 percent in both.

Graphic pic image of Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain in the ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll.
Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama are locked in a tight battle for the White House. ABC News and the Washington Post partner in a daily tracking poll, examining the 2008 presidential campaign from now through Election Day.

What matters, though, is not just the number of contacts but their targeting and/or effectiveness. There Obama has a very large advantage nationally: Among likely voters who report a contact by the Obama campaign 72 percent support him, while among those who report a McCain contact, 54 percent support the Republican.

This gap is narrower, however, in the battleground states: There Obama's supported by 66 percent of those who've been contacted by his campaign, and McCain's supported by 58 percent of those who've heard from him.

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FRIENDS/FAMILY – A corollary to campaign contacts is lobbying by family and friends, and there Obama also has an advantage. Thirty-one percent of likely voters say a family member or friend has asked them to support Obama; fewer, 22 percent, say the same about McCain. Nationally, those lobbied about Obama support him by 73-24 percent; those lobbied about McCain support him by a narrower (but still wide) 62-36 percent.

There are some differences among groups, fitting the candidates' support profiles. Fifty-eight percent of African-Americans, 45 percent of voters under age 30 and 42 percent of Democrats say a friend or family member has asked them to support Obama. For McCain, such appeals have peaked among Republicans, 35 percent; evangelical white Protestants, 29 percent; and conservatives, also 29 percent.

Thirty percent of independents and 36 percent of political moderates say someone close has asked them to support Obama, outnumbering the 23 and 20 percent, respectively, who've been approached by a friend or family member on behalf of McCain.

EXCITED/SCARED – Twenty-two percent of likely voters say they're "scared" by the prospect of an Obama presidency, essentially equal to the number who are scared by the idea of McCain as president, 23 percent. Naturally these views are highly partisan and ideological.

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