EXIT POLLS: Negative Campaign Tarnishes Clinton, Obama

And Obama supporters were more confident: just 5 percent of his supporters thought Clinton will win the nomination; by contrast, 23 percent of Clinton supporters said they think Obama will be the nominee.

If Obama does win the nomination, a quarter of Pennsylvania Democrats say they'd either support John McCain or sit out the contest entirely; if Clinton's the nominee, one in six said they'd either vote for McCain or sit it out.

That, however, may indicate the heat of the Democratic contest more than it predicts the future; the question's akin to asking a quarreling couple what they'll be doing for Valentine's Day. It might end ugly -- but they also may kiss and make up.

At the same time, there is a racial element to these views. Among white voters who said the race of the candidates was important in their vote -- albeit a small group, 12 percent of all voters -- just 55 percent said they'd support Obama vs. McCain.

Of the rest, 27 percent said they'd back McCain, and 15 percent said they wouldn't vote. Whites who discounted race as an issue were 17 points more apt to favor Obama against the Republican.

Fifty-eight percent saw Clinton as honest and trustworthy; in a hold-their-nose result, 23 percent of those who didn't see her as honest voted for her anyway.

More overall -- 67 percent -- saw Obama as honest. And despite the sniping that flew during the campaign, Obama and Clinton were rated equally on being "in touch with people like you" -- two-thirds for both.

It's the Economy & Change...Again

Fifty-five percent in Pennsylvania rated the economy as the top issue in the election, similar to what it's been in all Democratic primaries to date. Nearly nine in 10 said the nation's economy is in a recession; 41 percent said it's a "serious" recession.

On attributes, as elsewhere, the top quality cited by far was the candidate who "can bring about needed change"; that again worked for Obama, with "change" voters favoring him by a vast 69-31 percent.

Clinton came back among voters focused on experience -- winning 94 percent of their votes -- as well as the relatively few who cared most about electability.

Clinton won small town and rural voters, 63-37 percent; weekly churchgoers, 59-41 percent; and gun owners, 63-37 percent -- all groups of interest given the controversy over Obama's comment about small-town voters clinging to guns and religion.

In Ohio, whose primary preceded those comments, Obama did better among weekly churchgoers (losing them by 4 points) -- but worse among small-town and rural voters, who favored Clinton by 70-26 percent. Gun ownership wasn't asked there.

Among other differences with Ohio, Obama did better in Pennsylvania with seniors -- he lost them by 63-37 percent, better than the 72-26 percent tally in Ohio. But there were more of them in Pennsylvania, mitigating the change.

Results reported in this analysis have been updated with a final weighting of exit poll data.

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