Daily Tracking Poll: Barack Obama Answers on Experience, Improves on Commander-in-Chief

Oct. 22, 2008— -- Barack Obama has shored up his experience rating to the point where it now surpasses George W. Bush's in 2000 and matches Bill Clinton's in 1992, addressing what has been Obama's greatest vulnerability in the presidential election.

Obama, perhaps with help from his endorsement by Gen. Colin Powell, also appears to have stemmed some underlying advances by John McCain after their final debate last week.

In the battle of who'd best help the middle class Obama holds a 2-1 lead. And he's moved closer to McCain on who'd be the better commander-in-chief, cutting a 43-point McCain lead to 19 points.

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Fifty-six percent of likely voters now say Obama has the experience it takes to serve effectively as president, up from 48 percent after the Republican convention.

That's now better than George W. Bush's rating just in advance of the 2000 election, when 52 percent said he was experienced enough. Obama's advance on experience resembles Bill Clinton's 16 years ago, from 49 percent in June 1992 to 57 percent that October.

Obama's running evenly with McCain in trust to handle international affairs (as he has before), as well as by 2-1 in trust to deal with another key issue, health care. And likely voters by 19 percent to 4 percent say the Powell endorsement makes them more likely rather than less likely to vote for Obama, a 15-point net positive.

All told Obama leads McCain by 54-43 percent among likely voters in this latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll. Obama now has 50 percent support among men -- a first for likely voters in ABC/Post polling -- and an 8-point advantage among swing-voting independents.

A separate ABC News polling analysis Wednesday morning noted that Obama has an 11-point lead in the 16 states designated by the ABC News Political Unit as battleground states this year, and a 7-point advantage in the eight rated as toss-ups (Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia).

Further, in 30 "red" states George W. Bush won by a 14-point margin overall in 2004, Obama and McCain are now even, 49-49 percent. And in the 2004 "blue" states, which John Kerry won by 9 points, Obama's now ahead by 18. (Tracking poll data exclude Alaska and Hawaii.)