Daily Tracking Poll: Competitive on Terrorism, Iraq, McCain's Problem Is the Subject

Oct. 25, 2008— -- John McCain's pushback alternatives against Barack Obama are few but still potentially potent. Among them: Iraq and the war on terrorism.

While neither is a clear advantage for McCain, he and Obama run evenly among likely voters in trust to handle the situation in Iraq, despite McCain's support for the unpopular war. They're also about even on terrorism; 49 percent prefer McCain, 47 percent Obama.

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McCain's done better on both – a 20-point lead on terrorism, 10 points on Iraq, just after the Republican convention. After trailing Obama steadily for a month, that's the lightning he needs back in his bottle.

McCain's challenge, though, is the economy, the full-force gale blowing through this election. Likely voters have chosen Obama in trust to handle the economy in every ABC News/Washington Post pre-election poll since March, and by 55-40 percent now. Thin soup, but it's McCain's first 40 percent mark on the economy since late September.

The bottom line has been essentially static the past week; Obama holds a 9-point lead among likely voters, 53-44 percent, in this latest ABC/Post tracking poll, based on interviews Tuesday to Friday nights. Obama hasn't dipped below 50 percent, nor McCain above a high of 46 percent, since McCain's best of the year, Sept. 7.

Comparisons to 2004 underscore McCain's challenges. George W. Bush led John Kerry by 12 points in trust to handle terrorism and by 9 points on Iraq. They were about even on the economy – Kerry +3, 48-45 percent – but it was a far less dominant issue.

In 2004 likely voters divided evenly among these three – 22 percent said Iraq was their top issue, 21 percent the economy, 20 percent terrorism. Today 51 percent say it's the economy, 8 percent Iraq, 5 percent terrorism, a vastly changed political environment.

In aggregated data since the start of this tracking poll Oct. 16, McCain has almost unanimous support among likely voters who say terrorism is the single most important issue in their vote – 95-5 percent over Obama; his problem is that there are so few of them. Iraq voters, also few in number, favor Obama by 17 points. Economy voters, the most numerous by far, favor Obama by nearly 30 points -- the gist of his support.