The Challenges Ahead: Polls Point to Candidates' Future Hurdles

Feb. 6, 2008 — -- Exit polls identify candidates' weaknesses as well as their strengths. Per the Super Tuesday data, what challenges do the presidential contenders face in the contests ahead? A summary follows.

McCAIN — John McCain's chief challenge remains expanding his support to the conservative core of the GOP, particularly "very" conservative voters. Can and will the party be energized behind its nominee if he's inadequate or barely adequate to the base?

As we've noted, in all primaries yesterday, conservatives — 63 percent of all voters — went 39-32-23 percent, Romney-McCain-Huckabee. McCain actually won "somewhat" conservative voters by 7 points, but he lost "very" conservatives by a wide margin, 45 percent for Mitt Romney, 30 percent for Mike Huckabee, just 19 percent for McCain.

Looking at mainstream Republicans versus independents also illustrates the problem. McCain won independents by 14 points, 41-27 over Romney, with 16 percent for Huckabee. McCain won Republicans but just by 5 points, 40-35 percent, with 20 percent for Huckabee. If Huckabee hadn't been there to peel away some of those conservatives and Republicans, Romney could've had a much better night.

Appeal to the middle puts McCain in a good position for a general election — but he still will need the party base to energize behind him, to avoid getting swamped by turnout.

Looking at some of this in McCain's home state illustrates Arizona conservatives went 43-40 percent, Romney-McCain — close, but this is the home state. And "very conservatives" went 53-22 percent for Romney. This also played out on the issue of immigration, which ranked as high as the economy in Arizona; immigration voters went to Romney.

Another issue for McCain, albeit not in the exit poll, is his age. As we covered last night, it's the biggest net negative we've measured for any candidate. One point from the exit poll, under 30s split three ways in GOP primaries yesterday — McCain's weakest age group.

ROMNEY— Romney's biggest problem is Huckabee, who's Hoovering up conservatives and Republicans whom Romney needs; and evangelicals, a sizable chunk –