Consumer Confidence Index Hits the Dreaded -50 Mark

Feb. 23, 2010— -- The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index hit the dreaded -50 mark for the first time in nearly four months this week, a mere four points from its record low in 24 years of weekly polls.

While the change isn't statistically significant from recent levels, -50 is a psychological barrier – and not a happy one – for the index. This marks just the 25th time in 1,260 weekly polls the CCI has been this low. Remarkably, 23 of them have occurred in the past 16 months.

Click here for PDF with charts and data table.

Figure on a scale of 100 to -100, the index has averaged -48 so far this year, matching its 2009 average, its worst full year on record. Compare those to its long-term average, -13, much less its best year, +29 in 2000, and its best week, +38 in January that year. Those days seem far away.

The federal government has reported seasonally adjusted increases in initial jobless claims (up 31,000 to 473,000 last week) and wholesale prices (up 1.4 percent in January). Neither helps.

Another consumer confidence measure, by the Conference Board, startled Wall Street with a drop today, but it's done monthly rather than weekly. The ABC CCI hit a short-term peaklet, -41, the first week of January, then sharply surrendered ground.

CURRENT INDEX – The index is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, their personal finances and the buying climate. As has been true since early 2008, the current economy gets the most negative assessment of the three: Only 8 percent rate it positively, 30 points below the long-term average and in single digits for 13 weeks straight.

Just 24 percent call it a good time to spend money, 13 points worse than the long-term average. And 43 percent rate their personal finances positively, 14 points below its long-term average. Half or more have rated their own finances negatively for 88 of the last 94 weeks.

TREND – The CCI's hovered in a 3-point range since a highly unusual 6-point, one-week drop in January. It's been below -40 for a record 96 consecutive weeks.