Slight Summer Respite Fades for Consumer Confidence

Sept. 8, 2009 — -- It's back to school after a slight summertime respite for consumer confidence: After gaining ground from late June through the end of August, economic sentiment stumbled this week.

The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index, figured on a scale of +100 to -100, progressed from -53 in June (a point from its record low) to -45 in each of the last two weeks. But it's back to -48 now, pushed by weaker ratings of personal finances.

Click here for PDF with charts and data table.

Just 45 percent of Americans now rate their own finances positively, down 4 points in two weeks; it's been below a majority for 17 weeks straight and all but two weeks this year. The CCI's two other components – ratings of the buying climate and the economy – are far weaker, but at least have been stable.

Among the factors troubling consumers, the prospect of a jobless recovery looms large. Even as economists point to a possible end to the recession, unemployment jumped to 9.7 percent in August, its highest since June 1983.

INDEX – A mere 8 percent of Americans rate the national economy positively, steady for the third week, in single digits for a remarkable 45 of the past 48 weeks and 30 points below its long-term average. Just 25 percent call this a good time to buy things, 12 points below the long-term average and below 30 percent for a record 78 weeks.

Ratings of personal finances, for their part – while customarily higher – are just 6 points better than the record low in late June and 12 points below the long-term average in weekly polls since December 1985.

TREND – The index, between -45 and -49 the past seven weeks, has been trapped in a 4-point range since last hitting the grim -50 mark July 19. While near its record low, the index's current run above -50 is its second best streak since last summer.

Still, its 2009 average so far, -49, is 37 points below its long-term average and 7 points below its 2008 average – itself the second worst on record, after 1992's -44.