Consumer Confidence Mired in Negative Territory

Sept. 22, 2009 — -- Consumer confidence held its ground this week after a recent slide – but it's not shaken loose from its deep funk.

The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -46 on its scale of +100 to -100, still in a 4-point range the last nine weeks and near its record low, -54 in January. That compares to a long-term average of -12 in 23 years of weekly polls.

Click here for PDF with charts and data table.

The public's grim outlook runs counter to some economic assessments, including Federal Reserve reports of stabilization and a slower pace of layoffs. Americans more likely are focused on unemployment, now at a 26-year high 9.7 percent and expected to worsen before it gets better. In an ABC News/Washington Post poll last week, one in four Americans reported a job loss or layoff in their home in the past year, with predictably negative consequences.

INDEX – The CCI is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, their personal finances and the buying climate. Just 10 percent rate the national economy positively; on one hand that's in double digits for only the fourth time in the last 50 weeks, but on the other it's still 28 points below the long-term average.

Twenty-six percent say it's a good time to buy things, a point from the year's best, but hardly reason to celebrate; it's been below 30 percent for a record 80 weeks and stands 11 points below average. Ratings of personal finances, at 45 percent positive, are below a majority for the 19th straight week and 12 points below their average since late 1985.

TREND – As noted, the CCI has moved in a narrow 4-point range since late July, teetering twice on the edge of the bleak -50 mark, including last week. The only glimmer is that it's been above -50 for nine weeks straight, matching the best such run since last summer.

At -46, the CCI is 3 points above its average for the year so far and 2 points below its worst annual average, -44 in 1992. It's been below -40 for a record 74 weeks and hasn't seen positive territory since March 2007.