POLL: Confidence Hits Four-Year Low as Buying Climate Ratings Lag

Jan. 29, 2008 — -- Consumer confidence slid to a four-year low this week, as positive ratings of the buying climate remain at their worst level in 14 years.

The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -27 on its scale of +100 to -100, down four points from last week, and seven points below where it began the year. This is the second four-point drop this month, continuing the CCI's now six-month negative double-digit streak, its longest since 2002-03.

Only 28 percent call it a good time to buy things, the fewest since August 1993. Faltering consumer confidence has not gone unnoticed by President George W. Bush and Congress. In his final State of the Union speech last night, Bush acknowledged that the economy is undergoing a period of uncertainty and offered a stimulus plan to reverse the economic slump. It remains to be seen whether such a plan, or the Fed's recent cut of three-quarters of a point in its benchmark federal funds rate, can reverse the downward trend.

INDEX – The ABC News CCI is based on Americans' ratings of their current finances, the national economy and the buying climate.

As noted, 28 percent rate the buying climate positively, down from 37 percent in September and 15 points below the 2007 high of 43 percent reached in late March. The figure is 10 points below the average for weekly polls since December 1985.

Twenty-seven percent rate the economy positively, a proportion matching last year's low and 13 points below the long-term average. This rating is down 10 points since late September, and 21 points since reaching the 2007 high of 48 percent in mid-February.

Positive ratings of personal finances, still the strongest of the three measures, are at 54 percent – the lowest in seven weeks and a point off the 2007 low of 53 percent reached in late August.

TREND – At -27, the CCI is at its lowest point since March 2003, surpassing last year's low and continuing the downward trend of 2007. The CCI averaged -2 in the first quarter of 2007, -9 in the second, -12 in the third and -18 in the fourth quarter.