POLL: Confidence Stuck in a Rut

March 25, 2008 — -- Consumer confidence is stuck in a three-week holding pattern, hovering above its recent lows but still significantly below its long-term average.

The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index, at -31 on its scale of +100 to -100, has remained at -30 or lower for the past two months, the longest such run in 14 years. While the CCI rebounded early this month since bottoming out in February at -37 -- its lowest point since 1993 -- that upturn has leveled off.

Consumer concerns continue amid signs of a slowing economy: the Federal Reserve last week responded to credit concerns by lowering the fed funds rate by three-quarters of a point; gas, although down 3 cents is still at a costly $3.26 per gallon; and stocks zigzagged between big gains and huge sell-offs all week.

INDEX – The ABC News CCI is based on Americans' ratings of their current finances, the national economy and the buying climate. This week 55 percent rate their personal finances positively -- traditionally the strongest of the three measures -- slowly rebounding from hitting its 14-year low point of 49 percent last month. Ratings of personal finances are now just 2 points below the long-term average in weekly polls since late 1985.

Only 20 percent rate the national economy positively, down 11 points since the beginning of the year and half of its long-term average of 40 percent. Twenty-nine percent say it's a good time to buy things, the same as last week, and 9 points below its long-term average.

TREND – At -31, the CCI is exactly where it was last week, and remains a point below its 2008 average, its lowest since 1993. Although it did improve 7 points in the first half of this month, it still has much ground to gain from a 17-point drop over a five-week span in January and February.

The index today is much closer to its record low, -50 in February 1992, than to its all-time high, +38 in January 2000.

GROUPS – The CCI as usual is higher in better-off groups. It's 13 among higher-income people, while -71 among those with the lowest incomes, -24 among those who've been to college while -48 among high school dropouts, -28 among whites but -50 among blacks and -25 among men while -36 among women.