B1G tournament questions for the Big Ten
— -- It's a fascinating tale, really. A college basketball tale.
Minnesota represents the speed at which an irrelevant team can pick up a few transfers (former Illinois State star Reggie Lynch averages 8.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 3.0 BPG) and a mature freshman ( Amir Coffey is second on the team with 11.9 PPG) and reignite a program and change a coach's future.
Richard Pitino entered the 2016-17 campaign desperate for a rebirth after an eight-win season and a scandal-filled year. Three of his players missed the end of the 2015-16 season when he suspended them the day after they dropped a sex tape on Twitter. And that, believe it or not, wasn't the worst off-court incident of the fourth-year coach's tenure.
A few weeks ago, however, Minnesota beat Purdue -- a Big Ten contender -- in West Lafayette, Indiana. The win propelled the squad into the league's massive sleeper pool and minimized any negative talk about Pitino's future in Minneapolis.
By Saturday, however, the Golden Gophers had lost at Penn State, their second consecutive loss to punctuate a 3-3 start in league play.
But Minnesota's season to date tells a larger story about a first-class league fading into coach.
The Big Ten is not just a big mess. It's just not all that in 2016-17.
Minnesota's loss at Penn State meant as much as Nebraska's win at Indiana and Maryland's win at Michigan. They did not ruin any postseason hopes. But they also failed to offer solid evidence the league's projected tourney teams will need more than a small suitcase in March.
Indiana is 2-3?in the Big Ten. Huh? Maryland is in first place. Huh?
Wisconsin and Purdue should battle for the title down the stretch, but the Badgers (Creighton, North Carolina, Purdue by double digits) and Purdue (Villanova, Louisville, Minnesota and Iowa) have compiled losses that complicate projections about their postseason potential.
The Big Ten, it seems, is filled with teams floating -- barely -- above mediocrity. And that's the difference.
From 2005 through 2015, the Big Ten sent 10 teams to the Final Four, but the league hasn't won the national title since Michigan State's run in 2000. That's not a fair barometer, though.
More recently, the Big Ten finished first or second in KenPom.com's composite efficiency rankings from 2011 through 2014. The conference dropped to fourth in 2015 and fifth last season, when it failed to advance a team beyond the Sweet 16.
This season, the Big Ten sits behind the Big 12, ACC and Big East on both KenPom.com and ESPN's BPI. It's not as hollow as the SEC or Pac-12, but the Big Ten lacks the star power both those leagues enjoy.
No matter what happens with the SEC, Malik Monk and? De'Aaron Fox?-- the nation's most potent combo -- could lead John Calipari's squad to a national title.
The Pac-12 might earn just three or four at-large berths. But a bunch of NBA talent leads the league's best -- Lonzo Ball and the Magnificent Bruins Road Show;? Lauri Markkanen and the Wildcats; and Oregon's Canadian Freight Train -- and all agree the top tier of the conference could compete with the elite squads of any conference.
College basketball's 2016-17 campaign features both style and per-possession allure. The analytics guru and casual fan who just craves buckets can share a beer without animosity this season.
Kentucky is the nation's most efficient team, per KenPom.com. And? Edrice Adebayo, Monk and Fox could all crack the lottery in next summer's NBA draft.
More than 40 players are averaging 20.0 PPG, and 51 teams average 80.0 PPG or more.
Love 3-pointers? College basketball features 60 teams shooting 38 percent or better from beyond the arc. Just 40 teams ended 2015-16 with those marks.
Gonzaga could go undefeated in the regular season. Frank Mason III could lead Kansas to its 13th consecutive Big 12 title, although Baylor and West Virginia intend to block history. The Big East is the pound-for-pound king, delivering a weekly slate of highlights -- find a replay of Creighton's win at Xavier on Monday -- to college basketball fans.
The wild and crazy ACC is a fascinating assembly with five-star talent and a collection of programs with legit Final Four dreams.
Meanwhile, the Big Ten wanders the sideline of the most action-packed college basketball season in years.
It's not "Rocky" (the Big 12), "Rocky IV" (Big East) or "Rocky III" (ACC), but the Big Ten is probably "Rocky Balboa," and who among us knows where to place "Rocky Balboa"?
The Big Ten gained its 21st century reputation as a formidable conference because the league produced dangerous squads even in lean years: Evan Turner's Buckeyes and Eric Gordon's Hoosiers and Draymond Green's Spartans.
And those teams were never safe.
Ask Green about the time his Michigan State team finished 2-3 during a five-game stretch in 2011-12 that included losses to Illinois and Northwestern, teams that missed the NCAA tournament that season, and a Michigan squad that lost in the first round. Victor Oladipo's Hoosiers suffered five losses in seven games also during 2011-12. Nebraska won just 12 games that season; Indiana took one of those L's.
Coaches would often tout the challenges in Evanston and State College. The delayed bus rides on a winter trip to Williams Arena in Minneapolis, where players feared for their lives as they competed on the elevated court. The weight of a packed house at Assembly Hall (State Farm Center) in Champaign.
No easy wins in the Big Ten, and they were right.
If that's still the case in 2016-17, it's attributable to the league's lull. Yeah, Minnesota can beat Purdue and then lose to Penn State; and Purdue can beat Wisconsin and then lose to Iowa; and Iowa can beat Purdue and then lose to Northwestern by 35 points on Sunday.
But this is not the perennial gauntlet Bo Ryan and Bruce Weber described. It's a mesh of solid squads with minimal separation and blunted postseason aspirations.
Yet, the Big Ten has stories. In all, Joe Lunardi listed eight Big Ten teams in his projections on Monday morning.
Michigan State could find a rhythm and dance. Northwestern could reach the NCAA tournament for the first time. Maryland, 4-1 in league play, could make a serious run at the crown.
And Pitino could guide Minnesota to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2013. Last season's avalanche could become the forgotten drama he left behind in 2016-17.
But what would a Minnesota appearance in the NCAA tournament mean? What would the Gophers do if they secured an invite?
That's a question for the entire league.
"Hard at this point [to grade]," said Purdue coach Matt Painter about the Big Ten, "but B, above average to good."
That's enough to pass the class but insufficient to stand out on the big stage.
Elite Eight potential
Purdue: Caleb Swanigan is a 6-foot-9 machine with four 20-point, 20-rebound games. He's a handful for any opponent. He scored 20 points in a loss to Villanova in November. Purdue is elite with Swanigan as its anchor.
Wisconsin: Nigel Hayes, Bronson Koenig and Ethan Happ are the league's most dangerous trio.
Wait and see
Minnesota: The team's win at Purdue proved it can do more than just knock off mediocre opponents in Minneapolis.
Maryland: The Terps padded their early record with two wins over Illinois. Let's see what happens when they face tougher competition.
Indiana: An M. Night Shyamalan flick. Intriguing, scary, surprising and wait ... what?
Northwestern: Balanced squad that just smacked Iowa in a 35-point win on Sunday.
Michigan: Top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom.com.
Illinois State on the move in the MVC
Watch out for Illinois State, which defeated Wichita State on Saturday to go 6-0 in Missouri Valley Conference play. MiKyle McIntosh has made 42 percent of his 3-pointers for an Illinois State squad that hasn't lost since Dec. 23. The Redbirds are ranked 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom.com.
Remember this hot start, if it continues, as you're searching for postseason sleepers.
Leonard Hamilton must overcome tough stretch to compete for national coach of the year
Had Florida State defeated North Carolina on Saturday, Hamilton would have surged to the front of the pack in the national coach of the year race. The loss didn't ruin those dreams, but this week's home games against Louisville and Notre Dame could help the coach advance in the race or ensure he falls behind.
Duke much different without Amile Jefferson
We all know that. The Blue Devils need their senior leader, who is battling a foot injury.
But how much does his absence really hurt the team?
Well, per hooplens.com, Duke is averaging 1.22 points per possession this season when Jefferson is on the floor and 1.05 PPP when he's on the bench. Duke's defense holds opponents to 0.88 PPP with Jefferson on the court, a difference of one-tenth compared to when he's on the sideline.
The team shoots 39 percent from the 3-point line with Jefferson -- his ball screens create pockets for Duke's shooters -- and 32 percent from beyond the arc without him.
