Best bets on Week 16 NFL games

— -- It's Week 16 of the NFL season and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Saturday's action (with the bulk of the Week 16 schedule moved with Christmas landing on Sunday), included together in one handy file.

Dave Tuley

Last week: 4-2-1 against the spread with best bets (marked with an *); 5-0 with over/under best bets; 3-3 on ATS leans; 0-3 on O/U leans.

Season to date: 46-39-3 (54.1 percent) on ATS best bets; 39-25 (60.9 percent) with O/U best bets, including loss on Giants-Eagles Under 41.5 on Thursday night; 65-64-2 on ATS leans, including Giants on Thursday; 10-14 on over/under leans.

Mike Clay

Last week: 7-6-1 on ATS best bets; 6-7-1 with O/U best bets.

Season: 78-73-6 (51.7 percent) on ATS best bets; 76-68 (52.8 percent) on O/U best bets; 1-0 on ATS leans.

Erin Rynning

Last week: 1-1 on ATS best bets; 0-1 on O/U leans.

Season: 12-17 (41.4 percent) on ATS best bets; 19-17 (52.8 percent) on O/U best bets; 7-3 on ATS leans; 3-4 on O/U leans.

Rufus Peabody

Last week: 1-2-1 on ATS best bets; 3-1 on O/U best bets, 1-0 on O/U leans

Season: 23-32-3 (41.8 percent) on ATS best bets, including Eagles 2.5 on Thursday night; 16-19 (45.7 percent) on O/U best bets; 12-7-2 (63.2 percent) on ATS leans, 5-4 on O/U leans.

Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.

Matchup: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Opened Buffalo -3.5; now Buffalo -4
Total: Opened 42; now 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 54 percent Miami

Public perception: This is one of the rare public underdogs this year, as the public is siding with the Dolphins, who are still battling for a playoff spot, even with Matt Moore filling in for the injured Ryan Tannehill.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps have actually been behind the move from Buffalo -3.5 to -4. I would expect some buyback on Miami at 4.5 (which we're starting to see offshore).

Dave Tuley's take: I'm still debating if I'll be grabbing the Dolphins plus as many points as I can get by game time (though I'm leery of jumping on the public 'dog); however, I again prefer the over. Both teams are 10-4 with the over as both offenses have performed better than their respective defenses. Besides, the Dolphins won the first meeting 28-25, so the over/under of 42 seems cheap.

The pick: Over 42* (lean to Dolphins 4)

Rufus Peabody:

?

When Buffalo wins, it usually wins big, and last Sunday was no exception. Five of Buffalo's seven wins have been by double digits, while five of their seven losses have been by a touchdown or less. Miami, on the other hand, has won (more than) its fair share of close games, going 7-2 in games decided by seven points or fewer. While I'll shy away from a blanket statement regarding close games, a good record in close games is more indicative of good fortune than underlying skill.

Moore was exceptionally efficient last week, averaging 12.4 yards per pass play, but a lot of that was due to big plays -- four of his 12 completions went for 25 or more yards. For the game, Miami was successful on only 37 percent of its offensive plays, the Dolphins' lowest mark since Week 4. Miami's offense has been dependent upon big plays all season: While the Dolphins' offense ranks ninth in the NFL in yards per play, it is 26th in play success. Nobody doubts that big plays are important, but there is a lot of "noise" (randomness) in big gains, so in that way, Miami has over-performed its "fundamentals" on offense. Miami's defense has been similarly fortunate: While it rates slightly above average in yards per play allowed, it ranks first in the NFL in third-down play success. I like Buffalo at -4 or better, and lean Buffalo at -4.5.

Pick: Buffalo -3.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Buffalo -7.2; Total: 40.3

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Buffalo 27, Miami 21
The pick: Buffalo and the over -- BUF -3.5, 41.5

The Bills are sitting at 7-7 this season, but their underrated offense puts them in position to both win this game by a touchdown and score more points than anticipated by Vegas. The Buffalo offense has scored 42 touchdowns this season, which is third most in the NFL behind only Atlanta and New Orleans. The Bills have scored at least three touchdowns during 11 of their 14 games this season, falling short in three road games at Baltimore, New England and Cincinnati. In fact, the Bills are averaging 31.0 points per game at home this season, which trails only the Falcons (35.0 PPG) for tops in the NFL. Miami's defense has allowed the 10th-most touchdowns and eighth-most scoring opportunities (touchdowns plus field goal attempts) this season. Miami's offense has struggled to get into scoring position this year, and the team is averaging an underwhelming 18.0 points per game on the road.

Matchup: New York Jets at New England Patriots

Spread: Opened New England -16.5; now New England -16.5
Total: Opened 44; now 44
PickCenter public consensus pick: 56 percent New England

Public perception: The public is mostly on the Patriots here, though not by more than 60 percent at any of the bet-tracking sites that I monitor. Obviously, the huge spread scares off some bettors.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps are definitely in "dog-or-pass" mode, as they usually are with double-digit spreads in the NFL, even though that subset is a woeful 3-9 ATS so far this season.

Dave Tuley's take: I have to take the Jets here. Granted, I'm well aware of how poorly double-digit 'dogs have fared this year (no one has written or tweeted about it more than yours truly), and I'm also aware that the Patriots are 3-0 ATS as double-digit favorites as a big part of that stat. However, the Jets (even though they're 4-10 SU) are better than the teams we usually see in this role (49ers 1-4 ATS, Browns 1-3 ATS, Rams 0-2 ATS). In addition, the Jets always get up for their division rivals, and let's not forget they only lost 22-17 to the Patriots just four weeks ago to cover as 9.5-point home 'dogs. I'm not a huge fan of Bryce Petty, but I do like that he doesn't always check down like so many of today's QBs, and we just need him to connect on one or two of those deep throws to keep the Jets within this big number.

The pick: Jets 16.5*

Rufus Peabody:

New England has (unsurprisingly) slowed down a bit on offense since losing Rob Gronkowski for the season. The Patriots' defense has been playing its best football of the season, and ranks as Massey-Peabody's third-best defense in the NFL (behind only Seattle and Denver). They host the Jets in a game featuring the biggest point spread of the year. The Massey-Peabody numbers do not account for Gronkowski's injury (worth about two points, I've found), so if forced to take a side, I'd bet on the Jets here, but I'd just as soon pass.

Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: New England -16.5; Total: 42.3

Mike Clay:

Prediction: New England 31, New York Jets 16
The pick: New York Jets and the over -- NYJ 16.5, 44

Matchup: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Opened Tennessee -4.5; now Tennessee -5
Total: Opened 44; now 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 87 percent Tennessee

Public perception: The public is backing the Titans, as they're in the AFC South title hunt, while the Jaguars are 2-12 SU, 5-8-1 ATS and playing under an interim head coach.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps are more split on this game, as the Jaguars have been competitive at times, while there's also some concern about the Titans being ready to start covering as favorites (they did against the Broncos two weeks ago, but fell short the week prior against the Bears).

Dave Tuley's take: I am tempted to take the Jaguars plus the points. However, I've saved myself money the second half of the season by passing on them, as they have a tendency to stick around but then fail to finish the job late (it was seen again last week when they blew a big lead to Houston, though they did still cover that one). Still, I look back at the Titans' 36-22 win in the first meeting and expect more of the same here, especially with both teams putting up points and getting over this relatively low total (both teams are 9-5 with the over).

The pick: Over 43.5* (lean to Tennessee -5)

Rufus Peabody:

For the second straight game, Jacksonville won the turnover battle but still couldn't get the win. Tennessee's defense -- its weak link early in the year -- has come on strong in recent weeks, grading above average in each of Tennessee's past five games. The Titans' offense, meanwhile, has continued to impress; it has graded below-average in only one game since Week 3 and ranks sixth in the NFL in yards per play.

Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Tennessee -5.2; Total: 43.2

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Tennessee 26, Jacksonville 20
The pick: Tennessee and the over -- TEN -5, 43.5

Matchup: Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Opened Green Bay -6.5; now Green Bay -7 (EVEN)
Total: Opened 43; now 43
PickCenter public consensus pick: 77 percent Green Bay

Public perception: The Packers are always a public team, but it's increasing since Aaron Rodgers called for his team to run the table, and the Packers are well on the way to making it happen.

Wiseguys' view: Again, the sharps jumped on the short price on the favorite along with the public but are now split after reaching a full touchdown.

Dave Tuley's take: These appear to be two teams heading in opposite directions. The Vikings started hot (the last undefeated team at 5-0) but are 2-7 since then, while the Packers are coming on strong. However, this is a bitter rivalry, and I keep going back to the Vikings' 17-14 win in the first meeting. Yes, it was a long time ago, and the Vikings certainly got blown out by the Colts last Sunday, but I can't see this being anything but a defensive battle like the first meeting or the Vikings' recent 16-13 and 17-15 losses to the Lions and Cowboys, respectively, so I love getting the full touchdown (and would even like it at 6.5).

The pick: Vikings 7* (lean to under 43)

Rufus Peabody:

Despite an offense that hasn't been as prolific as the Rodgers-led attacks of previous years, Green Bay has been the second-best team in the NFL on success rate on third and fourth down. I expect some mean-reversion there, but I also expect the Packers' offense to be better than it has been so far this season overall. The Packers are now the favorite (54.2 percent) in the NFC North, and a win here would ensure that their season finale at Ford Field will be for the NFC North title.

Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Green Bay -5.6; Total: 44.8

Erin Rynning:

The Vikings were flat-out embarrassed last week, losing to the Colts 34-6. Still, this is a talented, largely well-coached football team that I would expect to bounce back in a major way. The Vikings still own a top-five defense that matches up well with the Packers' offense and Rodgers' limited mobility. Give Rodgers and the Packers credit for four straight wins. However, they're a mighty plus-10 in turnovers the past two weeks, making the results shinier than reality. Their defense flashed many issues again last week, hemorrhaging yards to the Bears. Plus-7 is the play in this rivalry.

Play: Vikings

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Green Bay 25, Minnesota 17
The pick: Green Bay and the under -- GB -7, 43

Matchup: San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Opened San Diego -6.5; now San Diego -5.5
Total: Opened 44; now 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: ? 78 percent San Diego

Public perception: The public is all over the Chargers, but that's just as much because very few people are willing to back the Browns. And with good reason, as Cleveland is a league-worst 2-12 ATS in addition to its 0-14 SU mark.

Wiseguys' view: Well, there are some people still betting the Browns: The so-called wiseguys have consistently lost on them all year and continue to try to recoup some losses as they've bet this line down from 6.5 to 5.5.

Dave Tuley's take: Just like with the Jaguars, I've cut the Browns cold turkey, and my bankroll thanks me. The Chargers are a bargain at 7-7 ATS, as they've given up a lot of leads and covers, so I'm staying as far away from this game as possible, except for pools where I have to make a play.

The pick: Lean to Chargers -6

Rufus Peabody:

It feels like my model has been a little too bullish on Robert Griffin III. Due in part to his outstanding rookie year, we still have some hope that he may be a serviceable quarterback. If Cleveland is to get a win, Week 16 is its best shot. The Browns' home-field advantage profiles stronger than normal against San Diego (3.3 points), and the Massey-Peabody model gives them a 34.9 percent chance of pulling the upset.

Pick: Lean Over 43.5
Massey-Peabody Line: San Diego -4.7; Total: 45.6

Mike Clay:

Prediction: San Diego 27, Cleveland 19
The pick: San Diego and the over -- SD -6, 43.5

Matchup: Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears

Spread: Opened Washington -3.5; now Washington -3 (-120)
Total: Opened 47; now 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 67 percent Washington

Public perception: The public is all over the Redskins, as they've been the better team this season and are trying to get back in the wild-card race (despite giving up their inside track with Monday night's loss to the Panthers).

Wiseguys' view: The sharps snapped up all the Chicago 3.5s and bet the line down to 3 despite all the public money on the Washington side. The Bears having covered five straight games despite being knocked out of playoff consideration long ago.

Dave Tuley's take: I would be tempted to take the Bears as 3.5-point home underdogs, but since I'm willing to flip to the Redskins at -3, that tells me that I should pass. However, I feel more strongly about the over. The Redskins are second in the league at 11-3 with the over, despite Monday night's under, and I expect their No. 3 offense (406.6 yards per game) to bounce back against the Bears; meanwhile, Matt Barkley is playing better than anyone expected, and the Bears should help to add to the over.

The pick: Over 46.5* (lean to Washington -3)

Rufus Peabody:

Despite their clunker on Monday, the Redskins still have a decent chance of making the postseason if they win out. Saturday's game in Chicago is no gimme: With Barkley at the helm, Chicago has lost three of its past four games, but all three losses were to teams that have greater than a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs. Washington is a 60.6 percent favorite, but there's no wagering value as of now.

Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Washington -3.3; Total: 45.8

Erin Rynning:

The Redskins failed on the defensive side of the football Monday night, allowing 438 yards to the Panthers. This has been the theme for the Redskins, who rank 29th in the NFL, allowing 375 yards per contest. This is simply a banged-up and vulnerable unit heading to Chicago. Meanwhile, the Bears are happily flinging the ball around to close the season. Barkley threw 43 times last week, while the Bears produced 449 yards of offense against the Packers. Key playmaker Alshon Jeffery returned last week and came to life in the second half, while the Bears' offensive line is playing its best football of the season. The Bears will be vulnerable to a Redskins offense that continues to carry the team. The Redskins rank second in the NFL in yards per play and should bounce back this week.

Play: Over

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Washington 25, Chicago 19
The pick: Washington and the under -- WAS -3, 46.5

Matchup: Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Opened Atlanta -2.5; now Atlanta -3 (-120)
Total: Opened 53; now 52
PickCenter public consensus pick: 75 percent Atlanta

Public perception: The Falcons' bandwagon has been filling up all season and that continues here, as they're battling for the NFC South crown, while the Panthers have only the slightest playoff chance remaining.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps also jumped on Atlanta at less than a field goal but are mostly split now, as those who prefer Carolina are waiting for the line to steam through the key number.

Dave Tuley's take: As I've stated more times than I can count, the Falcons were my Super Bowl value pick before the season started. It was easy to take Atlanta as a 3-point home underdog when they met earlier this season, but now they're -3 at Carolina. Usually, a team in this situation would be getting more than a TD on the road, so while I certainly understand how the odds have flipped, I'm not sure a 10-point swing in the line is warranted, especially as the Panthers are relishing the role of spoiler. Also, I've done well with the over in Atlanta's games (the Falcons are a league-best 12-2 on the season) and the first meeting was 48-33, but the Panthers have dictated the tempo in their past two wins, so I'll pass on the over as well.

The pick: Lean to Falcons -3

Rufus Peabody:

?

As I write this, the line has steamed hard to Atlanta, and a Carolina bettor can now get 3 plus money. Carolina feasted on a bad Redskins defense on Monday night, and Massey-Peabody rates Atlanta's defense as even worse. Carolina was also able to contain a very good Redskins offense. Atlanta has the best offense in the NFL, but Carolina's defense (MP No. 9) is no pushover. I don't get into motivation when handicapping games; it's strictly based on the two teams' Massey-Peabody ratings, adjusting for home field (and for totals, it's similarly all quantitative). My numbers say this game is a toss-up (Carolina is a 50.4 percent favorite). Despite Atlanta's prolific offense, this total is too high. This is a divisional rivalry played outdoors on a grass surface. Carolina is a big play at 3 or better and a lean at a reduced-juice 2.5.

Pick: Carolina 3, Under 51.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Carolina -0.1; Total: 48.7

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Atlanta 30, Carolina 25
The pick: Atlanta and the over -- ATL -2.5, 52

Matchup: Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders

Spread: Opened Oakland -4.5; now Oakland -3.5
Total: Opened 53; now 52.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 57 percent Oakland

Public perception: The public continues to fall in love with the Raiders (atop the AFC West at 11-3 while rewarding backers at 9-5 ATS), but the Colts have clawed their way back to .500, and this isn't as lopsided as one might expect.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps grabbed the Colts 4.5 at the books that opened that high and have mostly bet the line down from 4 to 3.5 in the face of more public money on the Raiders.

Dave Tuley's take: The Colts are tempting plus more than a field goal, though we've lost some value in the marketplace and I'm a little concerned about their No. 27-ranked defense being able to hold off the Raiders' potent attack. With that in mind, I believe the over is the stronger play, as the Raiders' defense (though improved) is still No. 30 in yards allowed and Andrew Luck should have success as well.

The pick: Over 52.5* (lean to Colts 3.5)

Rufus Peabody:

The Raiders continued their close-game magic last weekend, winning by three in San Diego to move their record to 8-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer (and 6-0 in games decided by less than a touchdown). Someone on that team has some serious karma. Indianapolis comes off its second blowout win in three weeks (and in both wins the Colts graded out as the week's top team). I liked the Colts at 4 early in the week but just lean that way at 3.5. I do have a strong play on the under. Oakland's defense has played back-to-back above-average games, and Indianapolis' defense has also been trending upward. It is also forecast to be a blustery day, which should help depress scoring.

Pick: Under 53, Lean Indianapolis 3.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Oakland -1.9; Total: 49.1

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Oakland 28, Indianapolis 24
The pick: Oakland and the under -- OAK -3.5, 53

Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Opened New Orleans -3.5 (EVEN); now New Orleans -3 (-120)
Total: Opened 52.5; now 52.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent Tampa Bay

Public perception: The public is on the underdog Buccaneers, which makes sense, as they've covered a league-best six straight games and pulled outright upsets in four straight wins over the Bears, Chiefs, Seahawks and Chargers. They also covered in a 26-20 loss to the Cowboys last Sunday night.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps have also joined in with the public in backing Tampa Bay and have taken away the 3.5s that were available. They're more split at 3.

Dave Tuley's take: In between those four upset wins and the cover against the Cowboys, the Buccaneers beat these same Saints 16-11 just two weeks ago as 2.5-point home favorites. The adjustment to the Saints favored by a field goal isn't out of line, but the Buccaneers are playing as well as anyone right now on both sides of the ball, and I give them a great shot at another outright upset.

The pick: Buccaneers 3*

Rufus Peabody:

The Massey-Peabody model still does not see Tampa Bay as a playoff-caliber team. In fact, we don't see the Bucs as even an average team. Why? Tampa Bay rushes for fewer yards per play (3.68) than its opponents (4.59), passes for fewer yards per play (6.45) than its opponents (6.84) and has a lower rate of play success (47.3 percent) than its opponents (49.1 percent). Tampa is 8-6 but has been outscored by its opponents. The Bucs' defense gets a lot of credit, but it really isn't much better than the Saints' much-maligned defense. The Bucs rank 26th in the NFL in yards per play allowed and 26th in play success allowed (New Orleans is 28th and 23rd, respectively), but rank third in play success allowed on third and fourth downs. If I want to predict how a student will do on an exam, I won't look at how he/she did on just a subset of problems on previous exams, I want to look at all the problems. When you look at Tampa holistically, the Bucs are not a good football team.

Pick: New Orleans -3
Massey-Peabody Line: New Orleans -5.2; Total: 52.0

Mike Clay:

Prediction: New Orleans 29, Tampa Bay 25
The pick: New Orleans and the over -- NO -3, 52.5

Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Opened Seattle -9; now Seattle -8
Total: Opened 43.5; now 43
PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent Seattle

Public perception: The public usually sides with the Seahawks at home and this is no exception, especially as they're 7-0 SU and 4-2-1 ATS in Seattle with their recent poor performances being on the road (at Tampa Bay and Green Bay).

Wiseguys' view: Despite Arizona's disappointing season (5-8-1 SU and 4-10 ATS), sharps have been betting down this number. Seattle -7.5 looks like the number attracting the most balanced action.

Dave Tuley's take: We've all seen how the Seahawks have turned around their season (with a few notable missteps), while the Cardinals have floundered. However, these teams obviously know each other very well, and I expect the Cardinals to put up a fight. I keep going back to the 6-6 tie these teams played to in Week 7 and expect another defensive grudge match. I might still land on the Cardinals getting more than a touchdown (and a low-scoring game clearly makes each point more valuable), but for now, I feel the under is the better play.

The pick: Under 43* (lean to Cardinals 8)

Rufus Peabody:

Going into the season, most people (myself included) thought this game would have NFC West title ramifications. It wasn't to be for the Cardinals, who, despite their 5-8-1 record, rate as an above-average team (they are 1.5 points better than average in this week's Massey-Peabody ratings). Seattle continued its recent pattern of inconsistency, but its Massey-Peabody ranking hasn't dropped below second all season. The Seahawks also get the benefit of a mini-bye, since they played last Thursday.

Pick: Lean Over 43
Massey-Peabody Line: Seattle -8.3; Total: 45.0

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Seattle 23, Arizona 19
The pick: Arizona and the under -- ARZ 8, 43

Matchup: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Opened Los Angeles -3; now Los Angeles -4.5
Total: Opened 40; now 39
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Los Angeles

Public perception: The public is siding with the Rams, but that's probably due more to the 49ers being 2-11-1 ATS (second worst in the league) than just taking the home favorite.

Wiseguys' view: Some sharps grabbed Los Angeles -3 at the shops that opened with that number, though it's mostly split now.

Dave Tuley's take: As with?the Browns and Jaguars, I've felt better about myself by avoiding the 49ers in recent weeks. I'm trying to resist this week, but I can't find very many underdogs this week that I like better than the 49ers (that is, considering the spread and their opponent). The Rams are obviously reeling after Jeff Fisher was fired and they shouldn't be favored over anyone. OK, they were 1-point road faves at the New York Jets in Week 10, and actually won and covered, but the only other time they were favored this year was the season opener when these same 49ers shut them out 28-0.

The pick: 49ers 4.5*

Rufus Peabody:

San Francisco has the NFL's worst defense, but faces the NFL's worst offense (by a mile). The consensus was that the Rams couldn't get worse quarterback play than they had under Case Keenum, but Jared Goff has managed to be miles worse -- comparing him to other NFL quarterbacks just isn't fair right now. Los Angeles does boast the 10th-ranked defense in the NFL (according to the Massey-Peabody ratings). A total of 40 is low in the NFL, but my numbers say it's still too high in this case. I have the under as a play at anything 40 or above, and a lean at 39.5.

Pick: Under 40
Massey-Peabody Line: Los Angeles -3.4; Total: 37.2

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Los Angeles 21, San Francisco 17
The pick: Los Angeles and the under -- LA -3.5, 40