How to bet every tournament first-round game

— -- With more than 9.2 quintillion possible NCAA tournament brackets, it's easy to feel overwhelmed. But fear not: Chalk's college basketball experts are here to help with analysis on every game.

Dave Tuley and Andrew Lange break down how to bet all 32 first-round matchups below, with lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

And if you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter, which has projections on every NCAA tournament game, and the Chalk home page.

ATS picks for every game

Note: Picks marked with an asterisk (*) are best bets.

South | West | Midwest | East

South Regional

Current total: 152
PickCenter consensus pick: 61 percent pick Kansas to cover
BPI: Kansas has 99.1 percent chance to win

Lange: Austin Peay finished ninth in offensive efficiency and seventh in defensive efficiency in a conference than was ranked 22nd out of 32. On a neutral floor, the Governors would be underdogs to over half of the teams in the Ohio Valley Conference. The bottom line is that this squad is lucky to be here. November was a long time ago, but against Vanderbilt and Indiana, Austin Peay was outscored 182-117. Add it all up and it's the biggest mismatch of the tournament.

Lean: Kansas -14.5 in first half

Current total: 136
PickCenter consensus pick: 52 percent pick Colorado to cover
BPI: UConn has 52.6 percent chance to win

Lange: This game isn't going to be pretty on the eyes, as both teams struggle to score in the half court. UConn expends a ton of energy on the defensive end of the floor, and with a limited bench, this team looked exhausted during the back half of the regular season. The time off before the AAC tournament no doubt helped as the Huskies produced 1.10 points per possession or higher in all three victories. I'm having a difficult time envisioning ways in which Colorado will score.

UConn has plenty of size and length and won't allow many transition opportunities. The Pac-12 doesn't have a lot of elite-level defenses, and yet the Buffaloes finished 11th in the conference offensive efficiency. But Colorado does defend, at a level not far removed from that of UConn. In fact, I grade out both defenses as even based on strength of schedule. A lot of Colorado's numbers are because of playing in the up-tempo, offense-friendly Pac-12. The Buffaloes are actually not all that dissimilar in style to the Huskies. Traditional buckets will be at a premium.

Pick: Under 136

Current total: 143
PickCenter consensus pick: 55 percent pick South Dakota State to cover
BPI: Maryland has 67.6 percent chance to win

Tuley:  Everyone looks to make a case for a No. 12 seed because of their success over the years in pulling off big upsets in the NCAA tournament. The No. 5 seeds are often teams from major conference that fell just short of having been championship-caliber, and No. 12s are often mid-major champs. That's what we have here with Maryland, which tied for third in the Big 10 during the regular season, against South Dakota State, the Summit League regular-season co-champion and tournament champ. Handicapper Marc Lawrence of playbook.com has No. 12 seeds off a win (meaning they won their conference tourney) at 12-4-1 ATS (75 percent) against No. 5 seeds off a loss (meaning they lost in their conference tourney) over the past seven years. When the No. 5 seed is favored by more than 3 points, that improves to 11-2-1 ATS (84.6 percent).

ATS pick:  Sound Dakota State*

Current total: 143.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 52 percent pick Hawaii to cover
BPI: California has 83.7 percent chance to win

Tuley: California is led by freshmen phenoms Ivan Rabb and Jaylen Brown, and many people are touting the Golden Bears as having talent that compares with the very top seeds. Cal has lost 10 times this season, so it's still going through growing pains, but the potential is there. Hawaii has won 27 games, so its players "know how to win" and that can be beneficial in March Madness games that come down to the wire. The downside for the Warriors is they shoot only 32.4 percent from 3-point range and prefer to push the ball into the lane and draw fouls; however, Cal's talent edge should make it tough for Hawaii to penetrate successfully. California should get the win and bettors need to decide if seven points isn't too much to lay.

ATS pick: California*

Current total: 136.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 54 percent pick Arizona to cover
BPI: Arizona has 52.6 percent chance to win

I'm taking a proactive approach with a lot of these Pac-12 teams. Like Utah and Colorado, Arizona is historically a moderately-paced team with a defense-first approach. Bettors won't see that in the Wildcats' results because of all the soft defenses and uptempo teams in the Pac-12. When given the opportunity, Arizona will get out in transition and score at an extremely high clip; Wichita is a completely different entity. The Shockers defend in the half court as well as any team in the country, and against comparable competition tend to play at a more controlled pace.

While Arizona's defense isn't on the level of last year's group, I think they can handle Wichita. The Shockers don't have a lot of offensive firepower beyond Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker, who combined to take 26 shots and scored 28 points in Tuesday's win. The Shockers' offensive numbers are inflated because of being far superior to a majority of the Missouri Valley. Put them up against a team that can offer defensive resistance and it's a very mediocre offensive unit.

The fact that there were 44 fouls called and 52 free throw attempts in the Wichita-Vanderbilt game and it still went under by 20 points is a pretty good indication that Wichita is an "under" squad.

Pick: Under 136.5*

Current total: 148.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 52 percent pick Miami (FL) to cover
BPI: Miami (FL) 81.9 percent chance to win

Tuley: Miami (FL) let me down after I bet it to win the ACC tournament and my initial thought is to fade it by taking the points with Buffalo, as the Bulls should be running up and down the floor and can put a scare into the Hurricanes. However, I believe the Canes, led by one of my favorite point guards Angel Rodriguez, will be happy to get in a track meet as they have the better and deeper guards. This should lead to a shootout, so I prefer taking the over in case the Canes run the Bulls out of the gym.

ATS pick: Over 148.5* (pass on the side as it should be right around the number)

Current total: 139.5
PickCenter consensus pick : 67 percent pick Temple to cover
BPI: Iowa has 69.8 percent chance to win

Tuley: Temple won the tough American Athletic Conference regular-season title, but then made an early exit in the conference tourney. However, that's nothing compared to how Iowa backed into the Big Dance with losses in six of its last eight games, and the Hawkeyes' shooting stats have gone cold. I still have Iowa rated better than Temple, but nowhere near this 7.5-point spread. The Owls are a guard-oriented team and take care of the ball (No. 2 in the nation in turnover rate), which should keep them in the game until the end. Hopefully Iowa's failure to find the winner's circle continues (for the sake of my brackets), but I think we should be safe with the cover.

ATS pick: Temple*

Current total: 141.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 52 percent pick Villanova to cover
BPI: Villanova has 95.6 percent chance to win

Tuley: Villanova has players with a lot of NCAA experience, but none of them have been to the Sweet 16, as the Wildcats have gotten a reputation for early exits the past six years. They shouldn't have to worry about losing in the first round to UNC Asheville -- one of the teams to steal a bid in the Big South -- and will move on to the Iowa-Temple winner. The Bulldogs don't have the size (none of their main contributors are bigger than 6-foot-6) or the athleticism to stay with Villanova, which is No. 1 in scoring defense at 65.9 points per game and that's been against far better teams than Asheville. I like this game to stay under as Villanova should win comfortably and we shouldn't have to worry about a foul-fest at the end to push it over.

ATS pick: Under 141.5* (lean to Villanova)

West Regional

Tuley: We'll share our take Thursday after the odds are posted on this matchup.

Current total: 136
PickCenter consensus pick: 62 percent pick St. Joe's to cover
BPI: Cincinnati has 63.4 percent chance to win

Tuley: Here's another of the four 8-9 matchups with the No. 9 seed favored; however, the public has been siding with No. 8 Saint Joe's and the line is down to Cincinnati -1.5 at most books, so this is getting closer to a pick 'em line that we expect from these matchups. And this looks like a coin flip as both teams were close to the bubble but did enough to get in. Cincinnati arguably has the better talent with a lot of players back from the one that gave Kentucky a scare last year before being eliminated, but Saint Joe's has overachieved all season and has been better to bettors at 22-11 ATS (66.7 percent). The Hawks also finished the season stronger by winning the A-10 tourney.

ATS pick: Pass, as it's truly a coin flip (lean to under 136)

Current total: 136.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 63 percent pick Baylor to cover
BPI: Baylor has 59.1 percent chance to win

Tuley: Everyone loves looking for No. 12 seeds to knock off No 5 teams because of all their past success, but I would advise people to look elsewhere. That's not because Yale, despite making its first appearance since 1962, is a bad team or should "just be happy to be here." Justin Sears is a legit player who could thrive in other conferences besides the Ivy League and the Bulldogs hit the boards and would be a team I would love to back if they had drawn the right matchup.

However, Baylor comes out of the Big 12 and will be pushing the pace of this game while Yale tries to slow it down. That might work for a while, but once the Bears get going they can run anyone out of the gym. This spread is scary, as I really think it's depressed with the expectation that so many people will be taking No. 12 seed Yale. I would resist.

ATS pick: Baylor

Current total: 157
PickCenter consensus pick: 57 percent pick Duke to cover
BPI:  Duke has a 77 percent chance to win

Tuley: Duke is not as good as we're used to seeing and without the name, I'm not sure the Blue Devils would be a No. 4 seed. We're not used to seeing Duke have 10 losses and the Blue Devils also have underachieved for backers at 13-17-2 ATS (43.4 percent). UNC Wilmington should love taking on its more well-known rival and the Seahawks have the talent to make a game of it. They should push the pace and that could spell trouble for a Duke lineup that basically goes only six deep. I'll use UNC Wilmington on probably fewer than half my brackets as I'm more confident in covering the double-digit spread than pulling off the outright upset, but I won't be among the shocked multitudes if it happens.

ATS pick: UNC-Wilmington*

Current total: 124.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 61 percent pick Northern Iowa to cover
BPI: Texas has 64.8 percent chance to win

Tuley: While I'm high on the Big 12 as a whole, that doesn't mean I won't go against one of its teams if the price is right. I think we have that with Northern Iowa, which beat UNC earlier in the year (which shows me the Panthers are capable of playing with anyone) and also beat Iowa State and Wichita State (twice). The Panthers haven't always shown up, but they're peaking at the right time. Point guard Wes Washpun leads Northern Iowa in scoring and assists and is a joy to watch. And when defenses focus on him, his teammates can knock down the 3-pointers that result from the extra attention. Northern Iowa also plays solid defense and should frustrate the Longhorns, which isn't the best shooting team to begin with.

ATS pick: Northern Iowa*

Current total: 155
PickCenter consensus pick: 53 percent pick Green Bay to cover
BPI: Texas A&M has 87.8 percent chance to win

Tuley: This should be one of the most fun games to watch this week, but I'm not sure it's worth a bet. Both teams push the pace and can light up the scoreboard (and both don't do a very good job defending the perimeter), so it's obvious to look to the over. However, the oddsmakers have this over/under at 155, which is the highest on Friday and second only to Duke's total on Thursday. Green Bay is capable of staying with A&M, but I fear the Aggies' overall depth will take over in the second half. If anything, I believe the stronger play would be the Phoenix in the first half to try to shorten the game.

ATS pick: Green Bay +7.5 first half (lean to over)

Current total: 141
PickCenter consensus pick: 56 percent pick VCU to cover
BPI: VCU has 71.2 percent chance to win

Tuley: It's not surprising that oddsmakers made VCU (a popular team in the public's eye for past tourney success) the favorite over Oregon State (making its first NCAA appearance since 1990) mainly because the Beavers are expected to be without their best big man, Tres Tinkle. However, I do think the line has been bet higher because of the VCU brand name and people looking for "upsets" with a No. 10 seat vs No. 7. I think there will be an upset, but only because Oregon State is getting 4.5 points.

VCU isn't the defensive force it was when coach Shaka Smart was running things. With Tinkle out, Oregon State will rely on a guard-heavy lineup, but VCU does the same so Tinkle's loss shouldn't matter as much, at least in this game. Gary Payton II (yes, the son of that Gary Payton, who was on the last OSU team to make the tourney) will be the best player on the floor as he leads the Beavers with averages of15.7 points, 5.2 assists and 7.9 rebounds per game and is the two-time Pac-12 defensive player of the year. We often see star players take over games and carry their team on their back; I think that's the case here.

ATS pick: Oregon State*

Current total: 139
PickCenter consensus pick: 62 percent pick Oklahoma to cover
BPI: Oklahoma has 95.5 percent chance to win

Tuley: This looks like a clear case of a point spread that has been deflated because everyone is looking for underdogs during March Madness. I have this line closer to 20 points, so if anything there's value on the favored Sooners. CSU Bakersfield, making its first NCAA tournament appearance, looks like the epitome of a team that will just be happy to be there. Before beating New Mexico State for the WAC title, the Roadrunners' biggest win was against Grand Canyon University. Buddy Hield and his teammates have too much for CSU and can probably name the score.

ATS pick: Oklahoma

East Regional

Current total: 148.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 62 percent pick FGCU to cover
BPI: UNC has 97.9 percent chance to win

Tuley: Florida Gulf Coast looked quite impressive in its 96-65 rout of Fairleigh Dickinson in the "First Four" play-in game Tuesday night. And everyone remembers the team's run in 2013, so it's tempting to take the 22 points here; however, I'm going to pass on this game.

For starters, I usually avoid these No. 1 vs. No. 16 matchups as there hasn't been an outright upset in 31 years (0-124) and while the underdogs have been doing a little better in recent years, these games usually turn into blowouts and it's up to the subs to determine which team covers late. I'll stick to more competitive games. Besides, even though the Eagles looked good Tuesday, this is a huge step up in class.

North Carolina's five starters all average in double figures and guards Joel Berry and Marcus Paige can beat Gulf Coast's full-court press. Carolina isn't a good free throw shooting team (ranked 311th at 31 percent), but that doesn't matter as the Tar Heels do it two points at a time (No. 5 in offensive efficiency). In addition, Gulf Coast doesn't have the big men to keep Carolina's front line off the offensive putbacks.

ATS pick: Pass (lean to Florida Gulf Coast but like many other underdogs better)

Current total: 150
PickCenter consensus pick: 63 percent pick Providence to cover
BPI: Providence has 60.9 percent chance to win

Tuley: Providence is the rightful favorite in this 8-9 matchup, as the Friars have the two best players on the floor with their inside-outside combo of guard Kris Dunn and forward Ben Bentil. The Friars click when Dunn is penetrating and either getting to the rim or dishing off to Bentil; they're not so good when they shoot jumpers, and especially when they start launching 3-pointers, but I don't see them needing to do that against Southern Cal. The Trojans are on the right track under former Florida Gulf Coast coach Andy Enfield, but he just doesn't have the players yet to run with Providence.

ATS pick: Providence

Current total: 144.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 59 percent pick Chattanooga to cover
BPI: Indiana has 86.3 percent chance to win

Lange: Indiana can obviously score, but the loss of James Blackmon prior to conference play and recent ankle injury to Robert Johnson (missed past four games) really puts the pressure on Yogi Ferrell. Blackmon and Johnson combined to shoot nearly 45 percent from 3-point range, which frees all kind of space for Ferrell to operate. Without Blackmon and Johnson, and away from Assembly Hall, the Hoosiers can struggle to score. And Chattanooga does defend, as the Mocs' 6-foot-10 center Justin Tuoyo earned Southern Conference Defensive Player of the Year honors and provides them will some much needed rim protection. This squad, which is littered with upperclassmen, helped post some of the best defensive numbers in the So-Con.

The Big Ten schedule was favorable, but Indiana won the regular-season title because of its commitment on the defensive end. It's not a great unit, by any stretch, and should Indiana win, there's a potential nightmare matchup against Kentucky looming. The Mocs' best offensive weapon is getting to the free throw line, as they averaged 26.7 attempts per game in league play and shot 74.7 percent. Couple that with the aforementioned experience and resume of wins over Georgia, Illinois and Dayton, and it's clear this squad can stick around.

Lean: Chattanooga

Current total: 143
PickCenter consensus pick: 61 percent pick Kentucky to cover
BPI: Kentucky has 90.9 percent chance to win

Lange: It's always difficult to gauge the true strength of a team from a lower-tier conference that played a limited nonconference schedule. That lack of strength of schedule was no fault of Stony Brook, as head coach Steve Pikiell's squad is a perennial winner with 22, 25, 23, 23 and 26 wins the past five seasons. The Seawolves took Vanderbilt to overtime in Nashville and then lost to Notre Dame in South Bend 86-61.

Personnel-wise, Stony Brook has talent. Forward Jameel Warney is one of the best all-around players in the country and earned America East Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year each of the past two seasons. And guard Carson Puriefoy, who will be tasked with guarding Kentucky's Tyler Ulis, also earned first-team all-conference accolades.

Back in January, Kentucky's biggest problem was outside shooting. The ability was there but I think time was needed to adjust to head coach John Calipari's offense. Once roles became defined, the Cats started to knock down 3s, and went from shaky to dangerous in the half court. In the end, Kentucky shot 39 percent in SEC play and 47.7 percent in its three wins in the SEC tournament.

The problem I see for Stony Brook is trying to compete with an undersized, six-man rotation. Kentucky can throw three or four taller players on Warney, and Ulis can neutralize Puriefoy. I'm hoping to find some info on Stony Brook's game plan. They're the type of fundamentally sound team that can give Kentucky problems if it becomes a low-possession game. My initial look would be toward the under, but looks like the market beat us to the punch.

Lean: Under 143

Tuley : We'll share our take Thursday after the odds are posted on this matchup.

Current total: 146.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 63 percent pick West Virginia to cover
BPI: West Virginia has 89.3 percent chance to win

Tuley: A lot of people are high on West Virginia, as its full-court press is something a lot of teams aren't prepared for (and a lot of TV experts have been parroting each other that it will be tough for whomever faces the Mountaineers in the second round with little time to prepare). However, I'm not so sure that West Virginia makes it to the weekend, as it actually draws a tough first-round matchup with Stephen F. Austin, which also has a pressing defense.

The Lumberjacks, led by Thomas Walkup (17.3 PPG), are a better shooting team than the Mountaineers. West Virginia usually makes up for that with easy baskets in transition and by crashing the offensive boards. If Stephen F. Austin minimize turnovers and second-chance baskets, the Lumberjacks should be in this game the whole way with a shot at the outright upset.

ATS pick: Stephen F. Austin*

Current total: 130.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 61 percent pick Wisconsin to cover
BPI: Wisconsin has 54.1 percent chance to win

Lange: Pitt has been a model of inconsistency: Rarely do the Panthers play a game where one facet is really good while another is dreadful. And it's made this team a nightmare to handicap. Thirty-two games into the season, I still have no idea what kind of team Pitt wants to be.

Wisconsin interim head coach Greg Gard made some minor tweaks -- less 3s, more emphasis on attacking the basket -- following the departure of Bo Ryan, but overall it's still slow and boring Badgers basketball. I'm still dumbfounded that this team went on an 11-1 run in Big Ten play. There's some talent but Wisconsin has the look of a team that should have gone at best 9-7 in league play. Yes, the core philosophies of the program assist in yearly overachievement, but I'm still not overly impressed with this group.

As you can tell, I don't have much interest in either squad nor do I see much of an edge with the side or total based on the current market.

Pick: Pass

Current total: 147.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 54 percent pick Xavier to cover
BPI: Xavier has 93.3 percent chance to win

Lange: This is an absolutely brutal matchup for Weber State. Xavier is arguably the most dangerous -- and fun to watch -- offense in the tournament, boasting an endless array of athletic scorers. The Wildcats are well-coached and do a lot of things well, but the bottom line is they're going to need to score at least 70 points to have a shot at covering this game. And their statistical profile suggests that could be difficult.

Playing in the lower-tier Big Sky, Weber ranked 10th in turnover rate (18.7 percent), 10th in 3-point shooting (34.6 percent) and 11th in free throw shooting (66.3 percent). But what's really scary is Weber State's overall schedule was 347th nationally in terms of opponents' defensive efficiency, meaning the Wildcats posted subpar numbers despite playing a slew of soft defenses. You look at every upset that takes place this week and almost all will feature a team that took care of the basketball and knocked down 3s and free throws.

I won't give the Musketeers a free pass, however, as this team is notorious for falling in love with trying to outscore the opposition. Unlike a lot of Final Four contenders, playing great team defense doesn't come easy for this squad. The Musketeers are capable, assuming the matchup is right -- and I believe it is here. We'll worry about Sunday's opponents after they get the win and cover here.

ATS pick: Xavier*

Midwest Regional

Current total: 132.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 53 percent pick Hampton to cover
BPI: Virginia has 99.2 percent chance to win

Tuley: I usually stay away from these games, as we all know a No. 16 has never beaten a No. 1 seed. More often than not, the No. 1 seed gets out to a big lead and the point spread ends up being decided by the backups, as the starters rest for the next round. I think that'll be the case here, as Hampton doesn't have the shooters to take advantage of Virginia's methodical style. This looks like a game where the Cavaliers will get up early and coast to victory (Hampton hits only 31 percent of its 3-pointers, so it's not likely to make a big rally), so I like the under.

ATS pick: Under 132.5*; lean to Hampton

Current total: 147.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 61 percent pick Butler to cover
BPI: Butler has 57.4 percent chance to win

Tuley: Butler is a good team, so I wouldn't go as far to say that the only reason the Bulldogs are favored in this 8-9 matchup is because of their past Cinderella success and being a fan favorite, but I do think that's part of the reason the line has gone up to Butler -4 -- and there's increasing value on Texas Tech. The Red Raiders, led by coach Tubby Smith, certainly faced much tougher competition in the Big 12, and that's going to serve them well here.

They have a balanced attack (their top seven scorers average from 8.7 to 11.1 points per game) and share the ball with each other to get the open shot, plus they should also have an edge here on the offensive boards. Tech could be in trouble if Butler gets out on transition and Kellen Dunham (16.2 PPG) starts hitting 3s, but I expect Tech to keep those chances to a minimum; and the Red Raiders have certainly seen plenty of running offenses in the Big 12.

ATS pick: Texas Tech*

Current total: 130
PickCenter consensus pick: 53 percent pick Purdue to cover
BPI: Purdue has 79.6 percent chance to win

Lange: Arkansas-Little Rock can best be described as the Virginia of the mid-major circuit. The Trojans are ultra-efficient, slow-paced and defensive-minded, and from Day 1, they bought into what first-year head coach Chris Beard was selling. They beat San Diego State and Tulsa on the road in nonconference play -- two very athletic and physical teams similar to what they'll see in Purdue.

The Boilermakers are still going to be a tough matchup with a rotation that features six players that range from 6-foot-6 to 7-2. Little Rock has one true post player in Lis Shoshi, who at 6-10 and with a thin frame will have his hands full against A.J. Hammons.

Purdue's weakness all season has been hanging on to the basketball. The Boilermakers ranked 11th in Big Ten play in turnover rate (17.8 percent), which is scary considering Little Rock boasted the sixth-best steals rate (6.3 percent) in the country. Little Rock will undoubtedly test to see whether Purdue is disciplined enough to guard for 25 seconds. Underdogs typically have a more difficult time dictating pace. And the point-spread margin is in a range where we can project a late-game margin conducive for fouls.

I was hoping for a total in the mid-130's but oddsmakers posted the right number.

Pick: Pass

Current total: 167
PickCenter consensus pick: 58 percent pick Iona to cover
BPI: Iowa State has 91.2 percent chance to win

Lange: Here's a matchup the selection committee went the extra mile to create, as it pits two of the fastest teams in the country with the highest total on the board.

Iowa State actually trended under the total this season (13-16 O/U) and while not completely different, underwent subtle changes under first-year head coach Steve Prohm. I've noticed better shot selection and team defense compared to last year's group under Fred Hoiberg, which got bounced in the first round vs. UAB.

An interesting statistic to consider is that while both teams can score, neither gets to the free throw line at a particularly high clip. Only 13.7 percent of ISU's points came from the charity stripe (351st nationally) and Iona was only slightly better at 17.7 percent (311th nationally). This is in large part because of the frequency in which these teams take shots from the perimeter. Put two jump-shooting teams in an unfamiliar venue at elevation and you have a few factors that could help keep the scoreboard from breaking.

Pick: Under 167*

Current total: 143.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 53 percent pick Seton Hall to cover
BPI: Gonzaga has 70.6 percent chance of winning

Lange: A lot of folks are asking why Gonzaga is favored in this matchup. After all, Seton Hall comes from the far better conference and took down Xavier and Villanova en route to the Big East tournament title. Imagine what this line would have been had the Pirates lost to Xavier in the semifinals? It's clear oddsmakers are factoring in the venue, Gonzaga's fan base and Seton Hall playing clear across the country.

I'm more concerned, however, about the matchups on the floor, and the first thing that comes to mind is how will Gonzaga's guards handle Khadeen Carrington and Isaiah Whitehead. Both players excel at taking their opponents off the dribble, and Gonzaga rarely (if ever) faced this type of strength and athleticism in the WCC. I remember watching the Zags struggle to defend guard-heavy Tennessee earlier in the season. The Bulldogs ended up winning the game 86-79 because Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis combined for 60 points, but unlike against the Vols, Seton Hall won't be bullied in the front court.

This is a tough situation for the Pirates but I think they're going to cause Gonzaga all sorts of matchup problems. If Seton Hall is allowed to play physically, they'll advance to Saturday.

Lean: Seton Hall

Current total: 142.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 57 percent pick Fresno State to cover
BPI: Utah has 90.7 percent chance of winning

Lange: The Mountain West was littered with bad defenses this season, and Fresno State still only finished seventh in offensive efficiency. The Bulldogs hung some impressive numbers down the stretch (82 PPG past six games), but face a big step up in class in Utah.

Fresno's three games against San Diego State are probably the best indicator of what to expect. The Bulldogs beat the Aztecs 68-63 in the MWC title game, won at home 58-57 and lost on the road in overtime 73-67 (57-57 at the end of regulation). Fresno is a team that doesn't really dictate tempo and if given the opportunity to run and trade buckets, it'll be happy to do so. But defense is still this team's calling card, and with no tournament experience I expect a conservative approach similar to what we saw in low-scoring wins against Colorado State and San Diego State in the MWC tournament.

The Utes tend to play a bit more conservative on the road than in the comforts of the Huntsman Center. Playing in the Pac-12, there are obviously a lot of pace and points, but head coach Larry Krystkowiak is notorious for slowing down games. Take a look at the Utes' three NCAA tournament games last season: 57-50 win against Stephen F. Austin (60 possessions); 75-64 win versus Georgetown (foul-fest late, 58 possessions) and a 63-57 loss to Duke (64 possessions). Both teams' numbers appeared a bit skewed based on conference affiliation.

Pick: Under 142.5*

Current total: 131
PickCenter consensus pick: 54 percent pick Syracuse to cover
BPI: Syracuse has 50.2 percent chance of winning

Lange: If you like to watch jump shots clang off the rim, then be sure to tune into this matchup. Dayton finished the regular season ranked 160th nationally in offensive efficiency. The Flyers don't shoot the 3 particularly well (34.7 percent) and also struggle from the free throw line (67.3 percent). Dayton's strength is working for and taking high-percentage shots. And rest assured, Flyers head coach Archie Miller will have his kids prepared to do something other than hoist 3-pointers against a Syracuse zone that can be beat with good patience and ball movement. The Orange have lost 5 of 6 games heading into the tournament and in those five losses, opposing teams shot a blistering 55 percent from 2-point range.

Syracuse's offense is an all-or-nothing affair. They shoot a respectable 36 percent from 3, but are otherwise a mess. The team's turnover rate is way too high (18.4 percent), and it ranks below NCAA average in both 2-point field goals (47.6 percent) and free throws (68.3 percent). That doesn't bode well against a Dayton squad that plays excellent fundamental team defense.

A big key will be forcing Syracuse to work for points. The Orange score a lot of easy points on offensive rebounds and broken plays.

Lean: Dayton

Current total: 141.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 58 percent pick Michigan State to cover
BPI: Michigan State has 95.6 percent chance of winning

Lange: Expect a lot of 3-pointers in this one as Middle Tennessee State and Michigan State are two of the nation's top "takers" and "makers." In league play, over 35 percent of MTSU's points came from deep and the Blue Raiders connected on over 40 percent of them. The Spartans, meanwhile, head into the tournament as the top 3-point shooting team in the country at 43.4 percent. It'll be interesting to see how they adjust to the Scottrade Center, which isn't the most friendly of shooting environments.

MTSU will likely struggle on the defensive end, as in four games against two of the best offenses in C-USA -- Marshall and UAB -- the Blue Raiders allowed a whopping 1.16 points per possession. And against VCU, the only team even remotely close to Michigan State in terms of defensive acumen, MTSU was held to 35.7 percent from the floor and 56 total points.

Michigan State should score plenty and dictate a fast tempo, but with the number already moved (139 to 141.5) and a dicey venue, I can only offer a small lean over the total.

Lean: Over 141.5