How to bet Warriors-Thunder Game 7

— -- LAS VEGAS - The holiday weekend ends Monday night with bonus basketball, as the Golden State Warriors have rallied from a 3-1 deficit to set up a Game 7 in the Western Conference finals. Here's our take on how to bet the decisive matchup.

Golden State forced Game 7 by winning 108-101 in Oklahoma City on Saturday night. The Warriors did it after closing as 3-point road underdogs and +135 on the money line. Underdogs winning have been nothing new in this series, as they are 4-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) so far. The only games where the favorite and won and covered were Golden State in Games 2 and 5 at home.

The unders are also 4-2 in the series, which is why the totals have gradually dropped after being 225 in Game 1.

There has been at least one Game 7 in each round this postseason, and favorites are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, with the Heat routing the Hornets in the opening round and the Raptors doing the same to Miami in the second round. The lone underdog to cover was the Pacers in the first round against the Raptors; they lost 89-84 but covered the 6-point spread).

Here are predictions from Monday's ESPN Forecast, featuring the ESPN panel, Basketball Power Index, FiveThirtyEight and PredictWise.

Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Spread: Golden State -7.0
Over/under: 218
PickCenter analysis

Tuley's take: I've gone 1-1 ATS in the preceding Game 7s, winning with the Pacers in the first round (after passing on Hornets-Heat) and then losing with the Heat in the second round. I like the underdog again here for pretty much the same reason.

The Thunder have gone toe-to-toe with the Warriors, splitting 3-3 SU and ATS in the six games. It's also clear from watching the games that these teams are pretty even at this point (part of that is due to Stephen Curry not being in the same form that we saw all season long) and we're getting seven points. Now, granted, I know we lost with the Thunder +7.5 in Game 5 on this same court as the Warriors ended up winning and covering 120-111, but that was clearly a toss-up the whole way. Then, in Game 6, the Thunder were winning most of that game before giving it away late. So, I expect nothing less than this decisive Game 7 to come down to the final few possessions again. I'm not as confident in the Thunder pulling off the upset, but +7 looks like a solid bet.

While I'm proud that I've been on the Thunder throughout the playoffs (and also made the right calls by passing on Games 2 & 5), I was wrong in thinking the overs would be the way to bet this series. Even with the lower total, that's the way to look in this winner-take-all Game 7 (and hopefully it doesn't go to overtime).

Tuley's pick: Thunder +7, lean under.

Erin Rynning's take: As the Thunder have shown tremendous maturation and grit in in their epic playoff run it was once again their undisciplined play that led to a Game 6 meltdown. Obviously, the major question for the Thunder is how they pick themselves off the floor and answer the bell for Game 7 after losing a firm grasp on a trip to the NBA Finals.

You could assume a rattled mindset to go along with a rookie NBA head coach and a history of disorganized play. Traveling on the road for this Game 7, unquestionably the odds are stacked against OKC.

However, there are numbers that can turn the box score, including the Warriors' amazing 3-point shooting (21-44) in Game 6 to the Thunder's brutal 3-of 23 clip, along with the Kevin Durant/Russell Westbrook pairing going 20-of-58 from the field. Still, this might be more wishful thinking for a team running on fumes against the reenergized Warriors. My numbers slightly favor the Thunder to the point spread, but again, the situation could easily prove difficult to conquer.

History is on the side of a lower scoring contest in Game 7's. In addition, the quickened pace of this series -- and the major players logging heavy minutes in Game 6, with a short turnaround -- figures to keep play at a lower level with shooting legs in question. Given the high total, I'll lean under the total.

Rynning's pick:  Lean under.