One bold move for every AFC team
— -- Each NFL team's offseason is filled with small moves and marginal personnel decisions. Sometimes, that series of small moves will build a winner. But a big, bold move always helps, either by dramatically improving talent at an important position or changing the overall direction of the franchise.
Football Outsiders is suggesting a bold move for each team. Some of these are realistic; others are more farfetched, but each would provide a significant change and improve a team's chances of winning future Super Bowls.
Pieces may refer to Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) metric, which takes every play during the season and compares it to a baseline adjusted for situation and opponent. It is explained further here.
Moves are suggested for each team independently of the moves suggested for other teams.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Sign Demario Davis
Buffalo already has decided on one big move that isn't necessarily too bold: cutting defensive end Mario Williams. He had just four sacks in 2015 and publicly complained about his role in Rex Ryan's defense. The move, when it comes, will save Buffalo more than $12 million on the salary cap.
The Bills have said they don't plan on being very active in free agency this offseason. They won't have much cap space, and the space they have is likely set aside to sign current players such as Cordy Glenn and Richie Incognito to new contracts. However, the Bills would benefit from finding enough salary-cap space to sign a veteran at one specific position: inside linebacker.
The first instinct might be to find a big-name pass-rusher to replace Williams after he is cut. But Ryan's defense has never depended on high-priced talent coming at the quarterback off the edge. His Jets defenses were known for scheme and interior pressure. The Bills' defense can do the same, but it needs inside linebackers who are versatile and can do whatever Ryan's scheme asks of them. Nigel Bradham and Preston Brown had both looked strong in Jim Schwartz's 4-3 scheme two years ago, then struggled to play in Ryan's defense.
The obvious target for the Bills in free agency is Davis of the Jets. There will be bigger names available, such as Danny Trevathan and Derrick Johnson, but Davis is the best fit. We've already seen him excel in Ryan's scheme; he may come at a discount because of a down season in 2015, and he's still only 27 years old.
Miami Dolphins: Cut Brent Grimes
It may sound ridiculous to cut a cornerback who has made three straight Pro Bowls, but at this point, Grimes' reputation is far better than his actual play. In 2015, Miami ranked 29th in pass defense DVOA and ranked dead last in DVOA when covering the opposition's No. 1 wide receiver.
Sports Info Solutions charting found that Grimes had a 44 percent success rate in coverage, which ranked a dismal 78th out of 83 cornerbacks with at least 40 charted targets. He also ranked 76th with 9.5 yards allowed per pass. Cornerback charting stats are notoriously inconsistent from year to year, but Grimes' stats in 2014 were unimpressive as well, and he's only getting older. Grimes will be 33 next season; last season, only two cornerbacks at age 33 or older were starters for most of the season, Terence Newman and Charles Tillman. (A third, Rashean Mathis, started seven games for Detroit before a concussion ended his season.)
Cutting Grimes would save the Dolphins $6.5 million in cap space, which would help give them room to both re-sign Olivier Vernon and keep Cameron Wake in the final year of his current contract.
New England Patriots: Trade Jimmy Garoppolo
The Patriots have a history of using midrange draft picks in an attempt to develop young talent behind Tom Brady on the depth chart. They used third-round picks on Kevin O'Connell in 2008 and Ryan Mallett in 2011, then a late second-rounder on Garoppolo in 2014.
The Garoppolo pick received the most attention because it was the first time that the young protégé could realistically be seen as the heir apparent. Two years ago, Brady's retirement could finally be seen on the horizon. In 2013, Brady ranked below the top 10 in Football Outsiders' passing DVOA for the first time in a decade. But two years later, Brady has rebounded instead of continuing his decline. He ranked sixth in DVOA in 2014, then fifth in 2015. It certainly doesn't look like he'll need a replacement anytime soon.
At some point, Brady will likely hit a sudden decline similar to what Brett Favre and Peyton Manning suffered in their final seasons. Nobody knows when that will come. But the Patriots should take a gamble, hoping the decline won't happen in the next two years, and do whatever they can to maximize their chances of winning Brady and Bill Belichick a record fifth Super Bowl title together. The Patriots have a number of needs and no first-round pick to help fill them. The next-best thing would be a second-round pick, and there's a good chance they could get one by dealing Garoppolo. That pick could find them the improvement they desperately need on the interior offensive line, or a young cornerback, or a second tight end to complement Rob Gronkowski in two-TE sets.
The longer the Patriots wait to deal Garoppolo, the less value he has to another franchise that wants to determine if he can be its starting quarterback. The worst result would have the Patriots waiting so long that Garoppolo simply leaves in two years and the team gets nothing in return. He gives them a backup they trust -- important because of Brady's age and because Brady still might lose his appeal of the still-threatened four-game suspension for Deflategate -- but a veteran backup from the open market wouldn't be much of a downgrade from Garoppolo in the short term, and they could use a third-day pick to draft yet another developmental quarterback prospect.
New York Jets: Cut Antonio Cromartie
Editor's note: A few hours after this was published on Monday morning, the Jets released Cromartie.
The Jets need money to re-sign players. Defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson is the most important; if they can't get him to agree to a deal, the Jets are likely to be carrying him on their cap with a $16 million franchise tag in 2016. They also need cap space to try to bring back quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and nose tackle Damon Harrison.
The Jets actually have three veterans they could cut to get at least $8 million in cap space without any dead money involved. But Brandon Marshall was probably the best player on their offense in 2015, and Nick Mangold is still one of the top centers in the league. Cromartie, on the other hand, is an average starting cornerback. Cornerbacks, except for the top handful, tend to be extremely inconsistent from year to year, and nobody symbolizes this trend better than Cromartie. His ranking in FO charting of yards allowed per pass went from 10th (2012) to 87th (2013) to 60th (2014). Last season, he ranked 61st, allowing 8.0 yards per pass.
Of course, cutting Cromartie would leave a hole in the roster. The Jets would likely move third-year corner Marcus Williams into the starting lineup. He had six interceptions last year in limited playing time, but his charting numbers were no better than Cromartie's (8.4 yards per pass and 52 percent success rate compared to 59 percent for Cromartie). Or perhaps Dee Milliner, the Jets' first-round pick in 2013, will finally be healthy and ready to live up to his potential. There's certainly no reason to believe the replacement for Cromartie would be any worse than Cromartie, but all the Jets' cornerbacks will look worse if they don't have Wilkerson up front to put pressure on the quarterback.
AFC South
Houston Texans: Bring back Ryan Fitzpatrick
No, seriously. In retrospect, the Texans made a big mistake by sending Fitzpatrick to the Jets last March in return for a conditional draft pick. The move seemed reasonable at the time. Fitzpatrick had career-best numbers for the Texans in 2014, but he certainly looked unlikely to repeat that performance in 2015. And the Texans didn't think they needed him; they were ready to give the starting quarterback job to one of the quarterbacks that head coach Bill O'Brien had worked with in New England, either Brian Hoyer or Ryan Mallett.
A year later, things look much different. Fitzpatrick posted career-best numbers in 2015. His 63.6 QBR ranked 12th in the league, marking his third straight year with a QBR above 50. In Football Outsiders' DVOA, Fitzpatrick ranked 14th at 3.5 percent above average. Fitzpatrick had never put up above-average DVOA his whole career until 2014, and now has done it two straight years.
The Texans have a good enough defense to make the postseason again in 2016, but better offensive performance would help. That means a new quarterback. It's unlikely any prospect available when Houston picks at No. 22 will be ready to start as a rookie, so the Texans will need a veteran who can start for a couple of years while a rookie develops.
Re-enter Fitzpatrick, who is once again a free agent. The Texans already know he can succeed in their offense. In fact, they know he can play better in their offense than Hoyer or Mallett. And it's unlikely the 33-year-old Fitzpatrick will cost as much as free-agent quarterbacks who are still in their 20s, such as Kirk Cousins, Brock Osweiler and Sam Bradford.
Indianapolis Colts: Re-sign Dwayne Allen, not Coby Fleener
In 2012, the Colts followed up their No. 1 overall pick of Andrew Luck by grabbing two tight ends: Fleener in the second round and Allen in the third. Four years later, both tight ends have reached the end of their initial contracts. All indications are that the Colts will go to a primarily three-receiver offense next season, which means they no longer have the room to pay starting salaries to two tight ends. So who should stay: Fleener or Allen?
The knee-jerk answer is Fleener, who always seems on the verge of breaking out as a major receiving target. But it is certainly telling that this has yet to happen after four years in the league. Meanwhile, Allen is widely regarded as the more complete tight end. He won't stretch the seam quite like Fleener or challenge DBs with his height -- Allen is 6-foot-3, Fleener 6-foot-6 -- but Allen is a better blocker and shows surer hands on short routes.
During the past two seasons, Allen and Fleener have had similar numbers in FO's advanced stats even though Fleener gets more pass targets. Two years ago, they were both well above average. Last season, because of the troubles the Colts had at quarterback, they were both well below average. Meanwhile, full offensive numbers show that the Colts have struggled more when Allen has missed games with injuries. (The numbers are worse when Allen plays limited snaps than when he misses the whole game, but that's likely just small sample-size variation.)
Yes, Fleener is dangerous up the seam, but he's not going to be a leading receiver when the offense is built around T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett. The Colts will have a better and more balanced offense with Allen as the lone starting tight end.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Sign Eric Berry or Tashaun Gipson
The Jaguars likely will go into free agency with more cap space than any other team in the NFL. Just like last year, they can afford to overpay to get the players they want. That means they can concentrate on specific positions of need and sign younger free agents who are just hitting their primes.
Gus Bradley has now spent three seasons trying to build the Jaguars around a tough pass defense that matches the one he coordinated in Seattle. But he can't succeed with that same scheme because he doesn't have the players to make it work, in particular one player: Earl Thomas. Playing Cover 3 requires a strong center fielder who can scare opposing quarterbacks away from throwing deep, give help to the cornerbacks on the sides and allow Johnathan Cyprien to play close to the line of scrimmage in the Kam Chancellor role.
Berry and Eric Weddle might be the two next-best free safeties in the league behind Thomas, and both are now free agents. Berry would be a particularly great signing for the Jaguars because he's still only 27. But it's unlikely the Chiefs will let him hit the open market. They're already working on a new contract and could give him the franchise tag. Weddle is excellent but just turned 31, so there's a strong risk that he will decline.
If Berry is not available, the better target for the Jaguars might be Cleveland's Gipson. He was one of the league's top safeties in 2013 and 2014, with 11 interceptions combined. He took a step backward last season but an ankle injury was partly to blame. Gipson doesn't turn 26 until right before the season, so he's just hitting his prime.
Tennessee Titans: Sign Lamar Miller or Doug Martin
It's rare for Football Outsiders to advise a team to sign a big-name running back in free agency. Since we began analyzing the NFL 13 years ago, we've constantly argued that high-profile running backs are almost always overrated. The problem isn't that running backs aren't talented, but the opposite: There are so many talented (but not transcendent) running backs available that it rarely makes sense to pay a premium for free agents when one player may only look better than another because of the blocking he received on his last team.
But the Titans may be an exception to this suggestion. They are going to have $40 million-$45 million in cap space and have a clear need at the position. The team has clearly given up on Bishop Sankey, and Antonio Andrews is nothing special. David Cobb, a fifth-round pick last year, is a complementary back rather than a starter.
If you are going to sign a running back, you want one who is still young and can make his own yardage even when the blocking isn't there, either with broken tackles or blazing speed. Martin, now 27, had a huge comeback year with Tampa Bay and stood out by breaking a league-high 77 tackles, according to Sports Info Solutions charting. He was only average in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings, but the offensive-line blocking plays a big role in that metric.
A strong alternative would be Miami's Miller, who has the speed to take advantage of holes in the defense when opponents have to overcompensate for the possibility of a Marcus Mariota bootleg or keep on the read-option. Miller will be just 25 next season. Four years ago, he had the highest Speed Score of any back in the draft. Unlike most speed backs, he's not a boom-and-bust guy. He led all NFL backs in our success rate metric in 2014 before the Miami coaching staff seemingly forgot about his existence for most of 2015. Either Martin or Miller would be a strong addition to the Titans' offense and would be able to play an important role for the next three or four seasons.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Sign Eric Weddle
It is not in GM Ozzie Newsome's nature to make big splashes in free agency, but the Ravens could use a quality veteran presence in the secondary to provide stability that has been missing since Ed Reed moved on. Last season, the Ravens allowed the most touchdown passes (30) while intercepting the fewest passes (six) in the team's 20-year existence. Baltimore's pass defense ranked 25th in DVOA, its lowest ranking since finishing 30th in the team's inaugural 1996 season. The 2015 Ravens ranked 28th against passes thrown to the deep middle of the field.
Although Weddle is 31, he has never missed more than three games in any season and was a first-team All-Pro safety as recently as 2014. He can slide right into the free safety position next to Will Hill.
Weddle can finish his career playing for what is usually a contender, and the Ravens get important defensive help in an AFC stacked with elite passers and wide receivers.
Cincinnati Bengals: Acquire Alshon Jeffery
How thin is the 2016 free-agent market at wide receiver? Cincinnati's own Marvin Jones may be the second-best player available, but if the Bengals want to upgrade, they should target Chicago's Jeffery. There is a good chance he does not leave Chicago, but this would definitely be a power move for a Cincinnati team in desperate need of getting over the hump in the playoffs, where Marvin Lewis is now 0-7.
This offense could use more from wide receivers not named A.J. Green. Andy Dalton had a career year before injuring his thumb, but he still has a tendency to throw high passes that his receivers have to adjust to. Jeffery is 6-foot-4, has reliable hands and can win on contested passes down the field. He is more than a deep threat too, having seen an uptick in screen passes the past two years, and would make for a great duo with Green in a division that lacks secondary depth.
The 1990s model of having one dominant receiver has not worked well in this era. If Cincinnati wants to score more than 17 points in a playoff game again, it should give Dalton and Green more help.
Cleveland Browns: Sign Kirk Cousins
Remember when Cleveland spent $100,000 on a quarterback study that said to draft Teddy Bridgewater, and ignored it to draft Johnny Manziel instead?
If Hue Jackson and the Browns are not fully sold on Carson Wentz (North Dakota State) or Jared Goff (California), the top two quarterbacks in this year's draft, then they should not force the No. 2 pick. Instead, they should try signing someone with proven NFL success, such as Cousins -- a free agent. Cousins has improved and had 23 touchdowns to three interceptions in his last 10 games of last season. The contract can be modeled as a "pay as you go" structure similar to what Colin Kaepernick has in San Francisco.
Jackson was in Cincinnati with Dalton. Cousins has a similar skill set in that he has solid mobility and is more accurate than Dalton. The Browns found some hidden gems in Gary Barnidge and Travis Benjamin last year, and Josh Gordon could be back along with a solid offensive line. The pieces are there minus the quarterback, which has been the main problem for Cleveland 2.0. After striking out in the draft so often, maybe settling for proven play with some upside is the way to go.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Let Kelvin Beachum walk
Perhaps more than any other team, the Steelers love to re-sign their own players instead of dipping into free agency. Sometimes this backfires when they overpay a marginal talent such as Willie Colon or Cortez Allen. Even center Maurkice Pouncey has been vastly overpaid, given the relative ease at which Pittsburgh has replaced him when he suffers his seemingly annual injuries.
Pittsburgh should not make that mistake again with Beachum, a left tackle expected to command a decent free-agent market just because of his age (27 in June) and the value of his position. Beachum missed the final 10 games last season after tearing his ACL. Pittsburgh continued to thrive without him, scoring at least 30 points in a franchise-record six consecutive games. Ben Roethlisberger had the lowest pressure rate (19.9 percent) of any quarterback in 2015, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.
Most teams would bemoan the loss of their left tackle, but Roethlisberger is used to a revolving door of linemen. The Steelers got by with Alejandro Villanueva, a massive 6-foot-9 tackle from Army who had not started a game at the position since 2008. Villanueva should continue to start while Beachum walks, leaving the Steelers with money to spend on other pressing needs like the secondary.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Lowball Brock Osweiler's second contract
Denver faces a very real possibility that Peyton Manning will retire and Osweiler (a free agent) will jump on a desperate team's offer, leaving the Broncos without a quarterback to defend their title in 2016.
Nonetheless, we would call Osweiler's bluff and lowball him a back-loaded contract for three years in the range of $12 million per year, which is below average for a starting quarterback in today's market. Right now, 18 quarterbacks have a contract that averages at least $16 million per season; Luck will likely make that 19 soon. Based on his seven starts, Osweiler has not earned this type of contract yet. He was solid, but he has to do much better at getting rid of the ball and avoiding mistakes -- his turnover rate was helped by four dropped interceptions in limited playing time.
When it comes to quarterbacks, most NFL teams are tied to an expensive contract or have spent a recent first-round pick. There are very few destinations for Osweiler to go to, but would places like Cleveland, Los Angeles and Houston really be that attractive to him? Denver is built to win right now with a great defense and some nice parts on offense. Osweiler also should recognize that Denver's talent core is the best place for him to succeed now, which means earning more money down the road. John Elway doesn't need to overpay him before he has earned it.
Kansas City Chiefs: Cut Jamaal Charles
This is not crazy. Charles turns 30 next season and is coming off a second ACL tear, and the Chiefs' offense has always replaced him quite well. For as great as Charles is, he rarely makes a huge difference for Kansas City. Since 2009, the Chiefs are 36-50 (.419) with Charles, averaging 20.5 points and 133.8 rushing yards per game. Without Charles, the Chiefs are 19-11 (.633), averaging 20.2 points and 129.9 rushing yards per game.
Remember, the Chiefs started 1-4 with Charles in 2015 and then went on an 11-game winning streak without him. The running game finished No. 1 in DVOA with Charles missing most of 2015. Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware looked very capable in replacing Charles, and you can usually find a receiving back in the draft or free agency. The Chiefs can save about $5.3 million by cutting Charles without any dead money concerns.
The Chiefs win with defense, but how good is that defense if free agents Berry, Derrick Johnson, Jaye Howard and Sean Smith do not return? Kansas City has to retain its defense, because you do not win shootouts with Alex Smith at quarterback. Star running backs are a luxury in this era, not a necessity.
Oakland Raiders: Trade two first-round picks for Von Miller
Go bold or go home. This suggestion may sound like fantasy land, but it is surprising we do not see moves like this attempted more often in the NFL. Let's assume the Broncos use the non-exclusive franchise tag on Miller, which would allow him to negotiate with other teams. Oakland could then offer a contract to Miller, and should Denver fail to match, the Raiders would have Miller at the cost of two first-round picks.
Teams shudder at the thought of giving up those picks, but look at the first-round picks the Raiders wasted from 2007-10 (JaMarcus Russell, Darren McFadden, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Rolando McClain) before snagging Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper in back-to-back years.
Miller is a proven All-Pro, has starred under coach Jack Del Rio before in Denver and would make for the league's most lethal pass-rushing duo with Mack on the other side. Oakland thinks it has the nucleus of a good, young offense intact; this would be solidifying the defense with an absolute stud. This could be the changing-of-the-guard move in the AFC West, which is exactly why it will never happen, but one can dream.
San Diego Chargers: Trade a second-round pick for Joe Thomas
If this were to happen, Thomas, who has never missed a snap in his nine-year, Hall of Fame-destined career, would finally get to play with a quarterback worth protecting in Philip Rivers. The left tackle has never been to a playoff game with the Browns. In addition to the second-round pick, the Chargers could throw in a mid-round pick to sweeten the deal if necessary.
Any stability along the offensive line would be a welcomed sight after the past few years in San Diego. In 2014, the Chargers' offensive line set a record for the most adjusted games lost to injury in our database (back to 2000). This past season felt like a repeat with King Dunlap missing nine games and Chris Hairston looking like a turnstile for San Diego. Orlando Franklin missed six games at guard and was not everything he was expected to be as a big free-agent pickup.
Thomas is as legit as they come, joining this exclusive group of players to make nine Pro Bowls in their first nine seasons: Jim Brown, Merlin Olsen, Mel Renfro, Franco Harris, Lawrence Taylor, Barry Sanders and Derrick Thomas.
It is about time Thomas could put his blocking to good use in an offense expected to be improved after countless injuries in 2015.
Related Stories
ABC News Live