The case four: 12 teams have playoff-worthy résumés

— -- The College Football Playoff committee's first ranking of the season wasn't without surprises. One-loss Alabama made the top four and undefeated Oklahoma State didn't crack the top 10. This week's edition most likely won't look similar, with the Cowboys earning a big upset over TCU and Alabama manhandling previously undefeated LSU. In all, 12 teams can make a legitimate case for top-four consideration.  

Clemson Tigers (9-0, 6-0 ACC)

AP ranking: 1; CFP ranking: 1

Why they deserve a spot in the top four: It's easiest to allow ESPN Stats & Information to present the most compelling reasons why: The Tigers have the best win to date, a 24-22 victory over No. 5 Notre Dame. With last weekend's win over then-No. 16 Florida State, and Clemson now has two victories over AP Top 25 opponents. It also ranks No. 1 in ESPN's strength of record, and is the only remaining undefeated team with a strength of schedule ranked in the top 50. Clemson has the second-most wins (five) against ESPN's Football Power Index Top 40 opponents, and six wins against teams with a winning record -- that's a slam-dunk case in favor of the Tigers.

Why they won't get it: The Notre Dame and Florida State game tapes got lost en route to selection committee headquarters in Dallas? That would be the only reason why Clemson might be excluded from the top four, especially after being No. 1 in the committee's first ranking. Clemson has done nothing but enhance its case following a 23-13 win over the Seminoles. If Clemson is left out of the top four this week, the selection committee will have some serious explaining to do.

Chance they make the playoff: 71 percent. That's the FPI projection that Clemson will win the ACC. If that comes to fruition, then the Tigers almost certainly will be undefeated following the ACC championship game, with a potential third win over a Top 25 team to add to their résumé, should they end up facing North Carolina (8-1).  -- Andrea Adelson

Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0, 5-0 Big Ten)

AP ranking: 2; CFP ranking: 3

Why they deserve a spot in the top four: The Buckeyes weren't overly impressive in beating Minnesota 28-14 on Saturday, especially as the Golden Gophers scored late to make it a seven-point game for a while. But Ohio State got the job done, winning its 22nd consecutive game dating to last season. J.T. Barrett is returning as the starting quarterback this week after a one-game suspension for operating a vehicle while intoxicated, and the Buckeyes' offense can go to a different level with him at the controls. Yet Ohio State is more than just a flashy offense. It is one of the most balanced teams in the nation, with a defense that is allowing just 15 points and 302 yards per game. Questions about the schedule should soon dissipate. After this week's game at Illinois, coach Urban Meyer's team faces its toughest stretch of the season: Michigan State, at Michigan, and -- if it wins both of those -- the Big Ten title game, potentially against an undefeated Iowa.

Why they won't get it: The only reason Ohio State won't finish in any top four from now to the end of the season is if it loses a game. Otherwise, there's no justification for leaving out an undefeated team with this much talent, especially after other unbeaten teams fell by the wayside in Week 10.

Chance they make the playoff: 85 percent. The Buckeyes are still in an excellent and enviable position to get back to the playoff, though those final three games won't be easy. A loss could be fatal, however, as Ohio State doesn't have much on its résumé to make up for a late stumble. -- Brian Bennett

Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1, 5-1 SEC)

AP ranking: 3; CFP ranking: 4

Why they deserve a spot in the top four: They've answered most every question since losing at home to Ole Miss in September. Jake Coker solidified his hold of the QB position and has limited turnovers. Derrick Henry has emerged as a Heisman Trophy contender at tailback. And the defense -- what can we say about arguably the most dominant defense in the country? The front seven is stifling and the secondary is as stingy as they come. After beating LSU convincingly at home on Saturday, the toughest test of the regular season appears to be over. If Alabama wins out, it's comfortably in the final group of four.

Why they won't get it: The best chance of an Alabama loss -- one that would knock the Tide out of playoff contention -- might actually be this weekend at Mississippi State. While there's a clear disparity in talent, the timing and location of the game provides the potential for upset. After an emotionally and physically draining game against LSU, will Alabama suffer a hangover on the road in Starkville? Those cowbells can rattle your cage.

Chance they make the playoff: 75 percent. With Ole Miss' loss to Arkansas this past weekend and a remaining schedule that includes only one ranked opponent (Mississippi State), the road to the SEC championship game, and thus the playoff, is wide open.  -- Alex Scarborough

Baylor Bears (8-0, 5-0 Big 12)

AP ranking: 4; CFP ranking: 6

Why they deserve a spot in the top four: The Bears have been dominant all season. Sure, they defeated Kansas State by only 31-24 last Thursday. But Baylor led 31-10 in the second half and was pretty much in command the entire way. There may have been initial concern about what would happen to the offense without QB Seth Russell, who suffered a season-ending neck injury. But blue-chip true freshman Jarrett Stidham was fabulous at K-State in his starting debut, throwing for 419 yards and three touchdowns while flashing a big-time arm. Based on strength of schedule alone, the Bears don't warrant a spot in the top four right now, but they have passed the so-called eye test. And while the Bears currently don't have a victory against an above .500 team, these next three weeks they get Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and TCU, which are a combined 26-2. According to FPI, that's the fourth-toughest remaining slate in the country. The strength of schedule portion of their résumé is on the way.

Why they won't get it: To this point, Baylor's best wins came on a neutral site over Texas Tech, which is 5-5, and at home against West Virginia, which is 4-4. Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame, Stanford and most recently Oklahoma State all have produced more impressive wins. The Bears will have a chance to prove their mettle in the next three weeks. But until they land a signature win, the committee has a glaring reason to omit them from the top four.

Chance they make the playoff: 18 percent. Even if they handle Oklahoma, the Bears would still have to go win in Stillwater and Fort Worth. Baylor is more than capable of running the table, but the odds suggest it's more likely that it doesn't.  -- Jake Trotter

Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-0, 6-0 Big 12)

AP ranking: 5; CFP ranking:14

Why they deserve a spot in the top four: Oklahoma State is unbeaten and now has arguably the most impressive victory of any playoff contender after hammering TCU 49-29. The selection committee has said it's looking for "complete" teams, and the Cowboys put together a complete performance against the Horned Frogs. The passing combination of QB Mason Rudolph and WR James Washington has been lethal, while DE Emmanuel Ogbah has spearheaded a relentless defense that can get after the passer with the best of them. The Cowboys also boast three conference road wins, and while they haven't always been dominant, they've been notably clutch in tough environments in the fourth quarter. With Baylor and Oklahoma both set to travel to Boone Pickens Stadium this month, the road to the Big 12 title goes through Stillwater, where Oklahoma State is 31-6 since 2010.

Why they won't get it: If the committee is focused on "game control," the Cowboys might not fare as well. They trailed or were tied in the second half in games against Central Michigan, Texas, Kansas State, West Virginia and Texas Tech. At this point, that's really the only real knock on Oklahoma State -- which, while nitpicky, could be enough to exclude it from the top four.

Chance they make the playoff: 22 percent. If they can escape a tricky trip to Ames, the Cowboys would be home victories over Baylor and Oklahoma away from all but locking up a playoff spot. That will be easier said than done, even given how well they played at Boone Pickens Stadium against TCU.  -- Jake Trotter

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1)

Why they deserve a spot in the top four: If Notre Dame was the committee's No. 5 team and one of the four teams ahead of the Irish lost convincingly, then that would automatically make the Irish a top-four team, right? Not necessarily, but there is still a good chance Notre Dame hears its name called in the top four Tuesday night after an impressive 42-30 win at Pitt. When the offense clicks the way it did throughout much of Saturday, the Irish look capable of playing with anyone in the country. After some early questions about its schedule, Notre Dame has notched four straight wins over teams with a combined 27-8 record -- and four of those eight total losses being against Notre Dame. What's more: No. 1 Clemson, the only team to beat Notre Dame, beat its last scheduled ranked opponent, Florida State, on Saturday to clinch the ACC Atlantic Division. Additionally, 7-1 Navy, whose only loss is to the Irish, routed previously unbeaten and No. 13 Memphis. All in all, a great weekend for Notre Dame.

Why they won't get it: If the selection committee is really, really high on No. 2 LSU and No. 4 Alabama, then it might not hit the Tigers too hard for losing on the road to the Crimson Tide. Perhaps the two could flip spots, again relegating the Irish to No. 5? No. 14 Oklahoma State's rout of then-No. 8 TCU will certainly earn the Cowboys a giant leap in Tuesday's rankings, although 10 spots would probably be a bit much. For now, though, Notre Dame has to feel good about its chances of being a top-four team . . . at least this Tuesday night.

Chance they make the playoff: 25 percent. Sure, Notre Dame looks like it's in good shape right now, but there is so much football left to be played, and it still has a loss on its résumé. And as long as there are undefeated teams from some Power 5 leagues, it is very likely those teams get in over one-loss Notre Dame. The Irish also have a massive test in their regular-season finale at Stanford, and even if they win that, there is no guarantee that an 11-1 Notre Dame squad gets the nod over another 11-1 or 12-1 Power 5 team. However, if the Cardinal enter that Irish game 10-1-- and then go on to win the Pac-12 title the following week -- a one-loss Notre Dame team would be in prime position to crack the final four. Still, a lot needs to happen in the next month. --Matt Fortuna

Stanford Cardinal (8-1, 7-0)

Why they deserve a spot in the top four: The Cardinal have won pretty and they have won ugly. They have won with offense and they have won with defense. They have caught a couple of breaks and made their own luck. The College Football Playoff committee was very forgiving of Ohio State last season for a Week 2 loss (at home) to Virginia Tech. It should show that same latitude to the Cardinal for their Week 1 loss at Northwestern. If the Cardinal run the table, they'll go steaming into the postseason riding a 12-game winning streak, with consecutive wins over Oregon, Cal, Notre Dame and whoever they beat in the Pac-12 championship game (potentially a top-10 Utah team). That's too impressive a résumé and too much momentum to keep the one-loss Pac-12 champion out.

Why they won't get it: The Cardinal could lose to Notre Dame, but still win the league title. And a two-loss Pac-12 champion -- especially with a head-to-head loss to a one-loss Notre Dame team--- would all but certainly get passed over in favor of a one-loss Power 5 champion or the Irish.

Chance they make the playoff: 50 percent. The Cardinal are in a pretty good win-and-they-are-in situation. So a 50-50 chance seems reasonable. Oregon and Cal will provide plenty of challenges prior to the Notre Dame and, presumably, the Pac-12 title games. -- Kevin Gemmell

Iowa Hawkeyes (9-0, 5-0 Big Ten)

AP ranking: 8; CFP ranking: 9

Why they deserve a spot in the top four: Selection committee chairman Jeff Long introduced last week a metric involving wins over FBS teams that are better than .500. If that indeed is some sort of criterion, Iowa should be sitting pretty. The Hawkeyes have four such wins: Pitt, Illinois, Wisconsin and Northwestern. The wins over Wisconsin and Northwestern, both on the road, should continue to grow in stature, as the Badgers and Wildcats are a combined 15-4 and are currently ranked in the coaches' poll. The Hawkeyes got pushed at Indiana last weekend but closed out a 35-27 victory that was arguably more impressive than Ohio State's win at Indiana. Long also knocked Iowa for its lack of "explosive offense" last week. Well, coach Kirk Ferentz's team is averaging 32.6 points per game in a defensive-minded league. Committee members Barry Alvarez and Tom Osborne should be impressed with how Iowa is winning in old-school fashion.

Why they won't get it: The committee showed last week that it didn't have much respect for Iowa's body of work, ranking the Hawkeyes No. 9 despite a better strength of schedule than some teams ahead of them. That SOS isn't going to improve in the closing weeks, though Minnesota (in respectable losses to Michigan and Ohio State) and Nebraska (in an upset of Michigan State) have shown they will not be pushovers.

Chance they make the playoff: 20 percent. Iowa will have to run the table and beat a really good team in the Big Ten title game, quite possibly Ohio State. That alone carries enough degree of difficulty to still make the playoff a long shot at this point.  -- Brian Bennett

LSU Tigers (7-1, 4-1 SEC)

AP ranking: 9; CFP ranking: 2

Why they deserve a spot in the top four: Despite what happened Saturday at Alabama, the Tigers have to like their chances to beat their three remaining opponents, Arkansas, Ole Miss and Texas A&M, as long as star running back Leonard Fournette stays healthy. Even after the Alabama loss, the Tigers still rank eighth in strength of record, according to FPI, and fourth in game control. There is still plenty of time to make up ground in the playoff rankings, especially because most of the teams that rank ahead of the Tigers still have daunting challenges on their schedules.

Why they won't get it: The manner in which the Tigers lost to Alabama makes an at-large playoff berth seem like a long shot. The Crimson Tide's defensive front completely overpowered LSU's offensive line and limited Fournette to 31 rushing yards. The committee will remember that. Also, FPI rates LSU's remaining schedule as the nation's ninth-most difficult. It gives LSU just a 19.4 percent chance to win out the regular season. Even if the Tigers finish with one loss on their résumé, they'd probably be stuck in the middle of a crowded field of one-loss teams. Fifteen Power 5 teams (plus Notre Dame) have one or no losses at this point.

Percentage chance of making the playoff: 5 percent. Right now it seems unlikely that the SEC will get two teams into the playoff field, so it will take an Alabama loss and four LSU wins (including another victory over Florida in the SEC championship game) for the Tigers to claim the conference title that would get them in for sure. Seems like too many dominoes that would have to fall LSU's way.  -- David Ching

Utah Utes (8-1, 5-1 Pac-12)

AP ranking: 10; CFP ranking: 12

Why they deserve a spot in the top four: Much like Stanford in the Pac-12 North, the Utes are in the enviable position of being in the driver's seat. The College Football Playoff committee probably won't frown too much on a road loss at USC. And the Utes have already picked up wins over two ranked teams and Michigan, which wasn't ranked then but is now. The big one for the Utes will be in Week 12 against UCLA. That would give them a win over a third ranked opponent. And if they go on to beat Stanford in the Pac-12 championship game (and if Stanford beats Notre Dame in the regular-season finale), that will be a signature win over a top-10 team that closes the season with a bang. That's exactly the kind of momentum the committee likes to see, especially from a team with the No. 7 strength of record from ESPN's FPI metrics.

Why they won't get it: If the Utes win out, but Stanford loses to Notre Dame, a Pac-12 championship win over the Cardinal won't carry as much weight. That could give the selection committee pause as it sorts out which teams are undefeated and which one-loss conference champions to pick. And even though the Utes beat Oregon and California while they were ranked, those wins have lost some of their shine, with both teams falling out of the top 25.

Chance they make the playoff: ESPN's FPI metrics gives the Utes a 12.2 percent chance to win the rest of the way. If they do that, they'll be right in the thick of the conversation. And if they beat a one-loss Stanford team that knocked off Notre Dame, that percentage increases to essentially a coin flip between the Utes and other one-loss league champions.

Florida Gators (8-1, 6-1 SEC)

Why they deserve a spot in the top four: Well, the Gators aren't always pretty, but they find ways to win. Isn't that what really matters, anyway? Go back and look at that 2006 Florida team. Certainly not the greatest team college football has manufactured, but when the Gators needed to make a play, it was made and they eventually won the BCS national championship. Florida clinched the SEC East with its 9-7 win over Vanderbilt this past weekend and still has one of the nation's best defenses, allowing just 14.6 points per game. Jim McElwain became just the third coach ever to guide a team to the SEC title game in his first season. When a team has a defense as ferocious as his, you can never count it out, especially when it's playing loose and has already vastly exceeded expectations.

Why they won't get it: There's just no way this offense can guide the Gators past the SEC championship game, right? Even though Vanderbilt's offense is legit, the Gators turned it over four times and were an abysmal 3-for-13 on third down. Florida still has to play Florida State and likely Alabama, which might have the country's best defense.

Chance they make the playoff: 20 percent: The defense is excellent, but the Gators just can't move the ball effectively enough with Treon Harris at quarterback.  -- Edward Aschoff

Oklahoma Sooners (8-1, 5-1 Big 12)

AP ranking: 12; CFP ranking: 15

Why they deserve a spot in the top four: Since losing to Texas, the Sooners have been on an absolute tear, outscoring the opposing by a whopping margin of 182 points, or 45.5 points per game. In those four games, Oklahoma boasts the top rushing attack of any Power 5 team, with Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon giving the Sooners a powerful thunder-and-lightning combination. Oklahoma has also been overwhelming defensively, thanks to the emergence of cornerbacks Jordan Thomas and Dakota Austin; Oklahoma ranks fifth nationally in fewest yards allowed per play. QB Baker Mayfield could begin to generate some Heisman buzz, too. Oklahoma also boasts that noteworthy non-conference victory at Tennessee. Take out the Texas loss, and the Sooners have been as impressive as any team in the country.

Why they won't get it: That Texas loss hangs like a two-ton albatross on Oklahoma's résumé, especially now that the Longhorns look like a long shot to make a bowl game. Though they've been dominant otherwise, the Sooners also don't have a victory over a Top 25 opponent. According to FPI, they have the toughest remaining schedule in the country, so they will have a chance to make up for the Texas loss. 

Chance they make the playoff: 15 percent. Oklahoma has the toughest remaining slate among the Big 12 contenders, with road trips to Waco and Stillwater, plus a home tilt against QB Trevone Boykin and TCU. The Sooners are playing well going into this gantlet, but they also lost to all three last season. It's also a possibility that, given the one loss, the Sooners don't make the playoff even if they do win out.