If the Clippers' season looks lost, will they make big trades?

ByKEVIN PELTON
November 22, 2017, 8:58 PM

— -- Are the LA Clippers' hopes of extending their playoff streak to seven consecutive years already dashed?

After starting the 2017-18 season a surprising 4-0 without All-Star guard Chris Paul, traded to the Houston Rockets over the summer, the Clippers have subsequently lost 11 out of their past 12 games, including their most recent nine in a row.

Injuries to starters Patrick Beverley, Danilo Gallinari and Milos Teodosic have been a big factor in the Clippers' swoon, and the situation went from bad to worse Wednesday when Beverley underwent season-ending microfracture surgery on his right knee. Without Beverley, can the Clippers realistically rally from their hole and reach the postseason? If not, they have some tough decisions ahead.

Clippers shorthanded at the point

Coming out of training camp, Clippers coach Doc Rivers envisioned playing Beverley and Milos Teodosic as his starting guards, with Austin Rivers and Lou Williams playing together in the backcourt off the bench. That plan lasted a little more than a game before Teodosic was sidelined with a torn plantar fascia.

Even without Teodosic, the Clippers continued to play well with Beverley. In his 335 minutes of action this season, they outscored opponents by 4.5 points per 100 possessions according to NBA.com/Stats. With Beverley on the bench, the Clippers are getting beat by 6.2 points per 100 possessions.

Until Teodosic returns, the only Clippers player who is a point guard by trade is rookie second-round pick Jawun Evans, who's shooting 31.7 percent in limited action off the bench. So Rivers has moved his son Austin to point guard and put another rookie, Sindarius Thornwell, alongside him in the backcourt. That starting five has actually been reasonably effective, getting outscored by 2.5 points per 100 possessions, but the Clippers have gone 0-5 in the games they've started.

As ESPN's Bobby Marks noted, help may not be on the way unless the Clippers are willing to pay the luxury tax. They're currently barely more than $100,000 below the tax, meaning adding a 15th player for the remainder of the season would take the Clippers over the tax line.

Projecting the Clippers' playoff chances

Despite the fact that Beverley won't return, things should get better for the Clippers. Teodosic will return at some point; so too will Gallinari, who has missed the past seven games with a glute strain. Even without Beverley, the Clippers aren't as bad as they've looked during their losing streak.

Still, further injuries should be expected for the Clippers, who added a number of players with a history of missing time this summer. And so far All-Star Blake Griffin has stayed healthy; he has missed at least 15 games each of the past three seasons. An extended absence for Griffin could lead to another losing streak.

The good news for the Clippers is they aren't the only Western Conference team battling key injuries. The Memphis Grizzlies have lost the three games Mike Conley has missed and their last five games overall, while the Utah Jazz are without Rudy Gobert?and the Denver Nuggets just lost Paul Millsap to wrist surgery. The number of wins needed to make the playoffs in the West no longer looks as high as expected before the season.

That said, just getting to .500 would require the Clippers to play at a 45-win pace from here on out. And while ESPN's real plus-minus projected the Clippers as a 48-win team entering the season, much of that lofty rating was due to Beverley, who projected as a top-60 player in the league.

Statistical projections aren't ruling out a playoff run but aren't optimistic either. The Clippers reach the playoffs in 27 percent of simulations using FiveThirtyEight's CARM-Elo projections. Simulations using ESPN's Basketball Power Index put the Clippers in the playoffs just 26 percent of the time.?(Neither projection accounts for Beverley's absence.)

So it's not too late for the Clippers to rally, but if they don't improve soon, the front office will have some difficult decisions to make.

Clippers could look to trade impending free agents

If the Clippers give up hope of making the playoffs, they'll have to consider trading two key players who can become free agents at season's end. Notably, that means All-Star center DeAndre Jordan, who holds a player option for the 2018-19 season. Assuming talks with the Clippers don't result in an extension, Jordan will likely become a free agent to lock in what might be his last lucrative multiyear deal.

Given Jordan's age (29) and price tag, the Clippers might be ready to move on, and trading Jordan before the deadline would allow them to recoup some value. The depth at the center position around the league makes finding a trade partner difficult, particularly if the Clippers insist on getting expiring contracts in return. But Jordan, selected for the All-NBA team the past three seasons, would be an upgrade in the middle for most teams, so there should be interest.

Williams will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, and we already have some idea of the value he can have at the deadline. Williams was traded from the Lakers to the Houston Rockets in February in exchange for Corey Brewer and a first-round pick. His value isn't likely as high now because Williams is in the last year of his contract and getting rid of Brewer's salary was part of the value to Houston. Nonetheless, Williams would probably fetch a solid second-round pick as a rental.

Besides their record, the Clippers' moves over the next two-plus months will also depend on their thinking as an organization. Are they ready to pivot to rebuilding around Griffin, or are they still trying to squeeze every win possible out of the Griffin-Jordan core? If the Clippers are still focused on trying to get back to the playoffs this year, it's possible Doc Rivers could be vulnerable to a midseason coaching change in the hopes of turning things around.

One way or another, we'll know a lot more about the Clippers' direction by the trade deadline, including whether the playoffs are still a realistic possibility. Beverley's surgery makes that prospect less likely.