College Football Playoff contenders judged differently according to committee's 'eye test'
— -- As a college football fan, you might see an Ohio State team that has no wins against ranked opponents and a quarterback saga that changes by the week. The College Football Playoff selection committee sees "incredible talent ... some dominating players that impact the game," according to its chairman, Jeff Long.
You might see an undefeated Oklahoma State team that just knocked off then-No. 8 TCU, has four road wins and is No. 2 in ESPN's strength of record metric.
The committee sees one-loss Notre Dame.
This is the College Football Playoff through the eyes of its 12-member selection committee, and after just two weeks of rankings, you don't need glasses to realize how much they value the so-called "eye test" as one of their top criteria. It's the biggest reason one-loss Alabama was in the top four last week and Notre Dame snuck in this week.
There's nothing official about it.
You won't find any section dedicated to the eye test in the selection committee's handbook. The only written criteria used to evaluate comparable teams are: conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head competition, comparative outcomes of common opponents and other relevant factors like injuries (and, apparently, kicking off at 9 a.m. PT, in the case of Stanford.)
The ambiguous, constantly referenced eye test applies to the game film committee members break down on their CFP-provided iPads and whatever they watch on TV or see in person. There are also four former coaches in the room -- Barry Alvarez, Bobby Johnson, Tyrone Willingham and Tom Osborne -- who made their livings watching game film. Now, they're volunteering to do it.
The schedules haven't exactly sorted the playoff picture out for us yet, as there are still six undefeated teams for the committee to evaluate. That's much more difficult to do when Baylor hasn't played Oklahoma and Stanford hasn't played Notre Dame yet.
So you get the eye test.
Last year, Long made numerous references to wins over top-25 opponents and strength of schedule, and while those are still very important (just ask the Big 12), it hasn't been enough for some undefeated teams to supplant others in the eyes of the committee.
If "body of work" is the ultimate judgment of the top teams in the country, Ohio State wouldn't be in the top four yet, nor would Notre Dame, which has just two wins against teams in the committee's top 25 -- No. 20 Navy and No. 22 Temple.
Even Long said Ohio State is a team "that hasn't played their best yet."
Iowa right now has a better résumé than Ohio State, and Oklahoma State's résumé tops that of both.
The Cowboys, though, apparently aren't passing the committee's eye test or résumé test.
No. 6 Baylor is the Big 12's highest-ranked team, ahead of No. 8 Oklahoma State. The Cowboys' schedule ranks 53rd by ESPN's strength of schedule metric, higher than Iowa's (62nd), Ohio State's (73rd) and Baylor's (94th).
Doesn't matter. The committee likes what it sees.
"I think the committee remains feeling that Baylor is strong and [getting] stronger," Long said, "therefore, we voted them ahead of Oklahoma State."
Strength of schedule is also in the eye of the committee member.
The Buckeyes' best win, according to ESPN's Football Power Index, remains at Virginia Tech. According to Long, the committee thinks their best win was against Penn State. Regardless, the only teams Ohio State has beaten with winning records are Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and Penn State.
Which doesn't matter, because, again, the committee likes what it sees.
"You know, Ohio State, again, we watch them play, we analyze them," Long said. "We think they have incredible talent. We think that that team is a team that hasn't played their best yet. We think that their best games are in front of them. Obviously, they've had a little bit of inconsistency in the quarterback, and so we're looking forward to evaluating them going forward with J.T. Barrett. But, again, I think when you look at that team and we evaluate that team and we look at their statistics and look at their personnel, they've got some dominating players that impact the game. So we think Ohio State is strong, and yet they still do have important games in front of them that will demonstrate to the committee just how strong they are."
Long also pointed out on Tuesday how many important games the Big 12 still has to play that will help determine its place in the CFP. Oklahoma is at Baylor this week. TCU still has to play Oklahoma. Baylor still has to play TCU. It's likely that as the month unfolds and the results of key games eliminate contenders, Long will have more concrete evidence to support the committee's rankings.
"Again, as we said before, the majority of the Big 12's strength in there, strength of schedules, are here at the back end of the season," Long said. "So we will see in the coming weeks."
You might have seen something already from Oklahoma State.
The committee clearly has a different view.
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