Daily Fantasy NASCAR: Drivers to target at Kansas

ByMATTHEW WILLIS
October 15, 2015, 1:18 PM

— -- Last week, I said I was starting my team with Kevin Harvick and also liked Kurt Busch from the high-salary class. Both gave us top-5 finishes and 55.5 and 41.5 fantasy points, respectively.

But for a second straight week, we had a single driver dominate, as Joey Logano led 227 of 334 laps and more than doubled anybody else's fantasy output, with 133.75 points. Passing proved difficult at Charlotte, and the one-day delay for rain might have also thrown teams off their game.

From the middle tier, Dale Earnhardt Jr. had a rough day, but Jamie McMurray's move from 30th to 12th helped give him the sixth-biggest fantasy day. In total, six of the top seven fantasy points earners started outside the top 10.

Why is that important, you might ask?

This week, we're right back at a mile-and-a-half track. Kansas has its own unique traits compared to Charlotte, but there's no need to reinvent the wheel as we head to a similar track. Also, there's a built-in advantage for those fantasy players willing to do their homework in that all the practice and qualifying sessions will be run in the daylight (as will the race), compared with last week, when there was a mix.

This will be just the 20th Sprint Cup Series race at Kansas, and one big trend to watch right off the bat is the value of the pole sitter. During the past five years, the pole sitter has averaged 81 laps led per race, 44 more than any other starting position.

Since 2004, when all the stats used in daily fantasy NASCAR began to be tracked, the value of the pole sitter holds true. The driver starting first averages 54.7 DraftKings points per race. Only two other positions even break 40 (14th at 44.2; 19th at 42.2).

Obviously we'll keep an eye on who actually will start from the pole. In 2012, AJ Allmendinger finished 32nd after starting from the pole. It's a driver-dependent stat to watch, but it's worth keeping an eye on nonetheless.

Here's an appetizer for who I'm watching for in Sunday's race, but check back again this weekend after the lineup's been set for the main course.

I'm starting my team with:

I'm staying the course after last week's impressive second-place effort, and hoping Kevin Harvick's cost has fallen a little bit. With the following race being a risky effort at Talladega, the pressure might be on to win this week to ensure a spot in the next round of NASCAR's playoffs. Harvick has proved he can shine at Kansas; in the past five races, he's averaged 74.6 points per race, with nobody else averaging more than 61.2.

The stars also align with Harvick's marks on 1.5-mile tracks this season. Despite a race at Chicago in which he cut a tire and finished 42nd, Harvick has averaged more fantasy points than any other driver this season on those tracks. In fastest laps run, for which you get a half-point every time your driver records one, he's tallied 300 in those races this year. Nobody else has more than 183.

Keep an eye on these four:

Joey Logano: I almost went Logano as my first pick, and if you ask me in 15 minutes, I still might flip them. Logano dominated last week and will probably be cheaper than Harvick. Logano really has nothing to race for this week except a win, which could make him risky -- or a pick with a tremendous upside.

In the past four races at Kansas, Logano has led 247 laps. Harvick's ahead of him with 371, and nobody else has more than 110. Logano started from the pole earlier this year at Kansas and hasn't finished worse than 13th in a 1.5-mile race this season.

Martin Truex Jr.: I've been shying away from Truex the past few weeks, not for lack of speed but a continuing trend in which he doesn't finish nearly as well as he starts. But a third-place finish at Charlotte finished off a four-race stretch during which he also finished 11th, eighth and 13th. In his previous 11 races, he averaged a 20.8 finish. In the past four seasons, dating back to his time with Michael Waltrip Racing and including his first season with Furniture Row Racing (when he was totally out to lunch), Truex is third among all drivers, with 59.9 fantasy points per race at Kansas.

Kyle Larson: Larson ran really well at Charlotte and was actually one of the few drivers who appeared capable at moving through the field. After starting 31st, Larson got up racing for second before being involved in a pit road wreck. Larson's problem in fantasy is his consistency, but he's shown raw speed, especially at Kansas. In his two full seasons in Sprint Cup, Larson has run 85 fastest laps at Kansas, the third most among all drivers.

Ryan Blaney: Hey, Blaney is back on the entry list this week, as is Brian Scott in Childress equipment, but I'd rather have Blaney. The engine problems that plagued his team earlier this season have seemingly been righted, and he ran 14th last week at Charlotte after spending time in the top 10 running with the Chasers. The 1.5-mile tracks have been the site of some of his better finishes this year. Two big issues to keep an eye on:

1. Make sure he makes the field. If qualifying is canceled, Blaney heads home because he runs for a part-time team.

2. Let's hope he's offered. Last week he wasn't available, putting that 14th-place finish to fantasy waste.

That's all I have for you this week. Check in again this weekend for my updated best buys. We're in Kansas this week; treat yourself to some ribs and burnt ends!