Daily Fantasy NASCAR: Drivers to target at Watkins Glen
— -- This week, the Sprint Cup Series makes its second and final road course appearance of the season, at Watkins Glen in upstate New York, so we can discard any oval-racing strategy. We're going to have drivers in contention who we usually don't see, and certain big-name drivers you will want to avoid.
You can look at overall road racing performance when selecting your lineup this week, but there are differences between Sonoma, the other road course on the schedule, and the Glen. Some drivers (see Gordon, Jeff) have great numbers at one course but not the other. So make sure you check for track-specific success.
I'm really going to look at starting positions here, as a large number of cars will be on the lead lap, and late-race spins or mishaps can cause a driver to drop many spots.
Here's a starter course of drivers to watch for Sunday's race, but check back for the main course over the weekend after practices have been run and the starting lineup is set.
I'm starting my team with ...
AJ Allmendinger is the driver I want to start my team. Earlier this season I wanted to start my Sonoma team with him, but Watkins Glen is definitely his strongest track.
The Dinger averages 43.5 DraftKings points per race at Watkins Glen. There's only one other course where he averages more than 30 (Atlanta). Last year he won this race to get into the Chase for the Sprint Cup, and this is realistically his only shot to qualify for the 2015 Chase. While Allmendinger has had large negative numbers before at Sonoma, he has never failed to land at least 29 points in a Watkins Glen race.
Keep your eye on these four:
Carl Edwards: After a 17-race stretch to start the year, in which he averaged worse than a 20th-place finish and less than 20 fantasy points per race, Edwards has averaged an 8.5 finish and 42.6 fantasy points per race in the past four. But I'm focusing on his performance at Watkins Glen, where he has had back-to-back top-5 finishes and no finish worse than 14th in his past nine. Edwards has four top-5s in his past five road course races overall. And he also has shown ability to move through the field, so don't be discouraged by a poor qualifying effort.
Brad Keselowski: Ignore the 35th-place finish in this race last year, when he had brake issues. Keselowski ran 10 fastest laps, the third-highest mark in the field and two more than Allmendinger. Keselowski finished second in the three Watkins Glen races before that, scoring 50 fantasy points or more each time. Keselowski definitely falls under the category of drivers who run much better at Watkins Glen (which sets up for more aggressive racing) than at Sonoma. I can't blame him for loving the Finger Lakes region.
Kyle Busch: Busch won earlier this season at Sonoma, which started his run of four wins in five races. He's also the only driver to score more points at Watkins Glen than Keselowski from 2011 to 2013. And, much like Keselowski, Busch had a poor finish in this race last year due to a couple of bad breaks rather than a bad run. Busch gets out front at the Glen. In the previous six races there, he has led 188 laps. No other driver has led more than 97, and no other driver who will be entered in Sunday's field has led more than 39.
If you want to get more excited for Watkins Glen, hop on over to YouTube and watch Keselowski and Busch battle for the wins in 2012 and 2013.
The drivers starting in Row 20: You want a sleeper? I'll give you a sleeper row. Obviously, you'll want to see who actually starts there. But since NASCAR began tracking the stats used in Daily Fantasy NASCAR in 2005, no starting position averages more points per race at Watkins Glen than 40th (35.4). And 39th is the fourth-highest (32.3). Start/finish differential definitely comes into play in this race.
