Daily Fantasy NASCAR: Top players to target at California
— -- Last week, both in this space and the weekend preview, I said to start your team with Kevin Harvick, and he came through with 135.75 fantasy points, leading 139 laps and coming from an 18th-place starting spot for a victory.
I wasn't really going out on a limb with that pick. Harvick had won four of the last five Phoenix races and seven total in his career. But I'm not here to give you solely the unpredictable, out-of-nowhere pick. I'm here to give you the best fantasy plays my mind can comprehend!
Sometimes, that's the bland and predictable option. But there's nothing wrong with a bowl of vanilla ice cream once in a while ( leaves and eats a bowl of vanilla ice cream ...)
My early-week picks weren't without their bad breaks, though. Brad Keselowski and Ryan Newman both had issues. Keselowski finished with 6.5 points; Newman, a not-so-nice-14.
Hopefully, you followed through and also read the weekend preview (I'm only asking you to visit me twice a week, and you don't even have to bring me anything), when I backed off Keselowski and recommended the pole-sitter Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr. as high-value drivers.
Dale Junior quickly came from his 26th-place starting spot and finished fifth for 99.5 points, second-most in the field. Kyle Busch was fourth at 72.75.
In middle value, I liked Newman (whoops), and Ryan Blaney (hooray). In low-cost, I liked Ty Dillon, Danica Patrick and Regan Smith. Patrick and Dillon both got a pleasant-for-the-price 42 points (Smith was okay with 19). But I want to chat about Ty Dillon really quickly.
The drivers of the No. 14 car, rotating between Dillon and Brian Vickers until Tony Stewart returns from his back injury, have been regularly very-low cost, usually the minimum or not far from it, but they're in top-notch equipment.
Vickers has struggled a little bit in his two races, but his average position throughout the race shows he's running better than he finishes. However, Dillon has averaged 35.25 fantasy points per race in his starts in the No. 14 (throwing out his Daytona 500 finish for another team). That average would put him seventh among all drivers in fantasy points per race this year.
That said, Vickers is in the No. 14 this week as we move to California. But always keep the No. 14 in mind as a great low-cost option on a week-to-week basis until the prices are adjusted.
So, about California. It's a two-mile oval, bigger than the intermediates we've been at this year (Las Vegas and Atlanta). We don't have a ton of past data to look at here, as Michigan is the most-similar track and they haven't raced with this aero package. Plus, there's now only one race a year at the track, so we haven't raced here in a year. That means I'm leaning even more heavily on practices and qualifying this week. So make sure you stop on by over the weekend.
Here's my five picks to get you started on the week.
I'm starting my team with:
Kyle Busch didn't run this race last year, but in his previous four starts there his average finish is a 1.75. Yeah, I know, right? While not a Kevin Harvick-at-Phoenix level of domination, Busch's average of 85.9 fantasy points at California going back to 2011 is about 33 more than any other driver.
While I'm not a big fan of the "this driver is due" mentality when making picks, there's no doubt Busch is running great to start his championship defense, seeming to click with this aero package. He's finished fourth or better in all four races this season, and he had more laps led and fastest laps last Sunday at Phoenix than he had in the season's first three races combined.
Keep an eye on these four:
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior! Over the last two seasons, no driver has averaged more fantasy points per race on two-mile ovals than him. He's a multi-time winner at Michigan, but does good work at California too, with a finish of 12th or better in his last five races there, with an average finish of seventh. The laps led and fast laps numbers aren't there, but the pass differential has ben a combined plus-56 in those five races.
Kurt Busch: In the last four years, Busch has driven for three different teams at California and has finished ninth or better in each race. Until last year, the laps led and fastest laps numbers weren't there. But last year he started from the pole in this race, led 65 laps and ran 50 fastest laps, both leading all drivers, as did his 80.25 fantasy points.
Paul Menard: The Nard Dog finished fourth in this race last year, his third straight top-10 finish at the track. In fact, his average finish in the last 10 races on two-mile tracks is 7.6. On those tracks (Michigan and California) over the last three seasons, he ranks second in average fantasy points per race, right between Harvick and Joey Logano.
Brian Vickers: The selection on low-cost drivers is great this season, really freeing up the top of your roster. Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott are both great options, but both are making their first Cup starts at California. Vickers last ran at California in 2014, starting 19th and finishing seventh. His previous race there in 2011 resulted in an eighth-place finish. He's also won before at Michigan.
That's all I have for you this week. Check back in over the weekend for more analysis and fantasy goodness. In the meantime, have yourself a California roll. I'll join you.
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