5-on-5: Debating OKC, LeBron and who has most at risk this season

— -- What's going to happen to Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder? What about LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers? Our experts answer which players and teams have the most at risk in the second half of the NBA season.

1. Which East team should be most concerned about the risk it faces?

Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Is there an answer other than Cleveland? The Cavs are in the unenviable position of fighting not only the specter of expectation (they're supposed to win the East, easily at that), but fighting the Ghosts of Failures Past: They have to overcome The Shot, The Drive, The Decision and the Golden State Warriors, all at once.

There's absolutely no reason to panic.

Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider:  Miami Heat. First and foremost, the concern is with Chris Bosh as a human being and his health. That is paramount. From a less significant basketball perspective, he has three years and $76 million remaining on his contract after this season.

And they still have to determine how much impending free agent Hassan Whiteside is worth to them and whether he fits in the Heat's aging core.

Chad Ford, ESPN Insider: Cleveland. With so much cash flooding the system this summer, the Cavs' biggest window for making another run at a title seems to be now, while the rest of the East has yet to catch up.

If the Cavs falter again, I think it's fair to wonder whether they ever win a title with LeBron. Even scarier, will LeBron, who is a free agent this summer, wonder the same thing?

Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider:  Atlanta Hawks. After opting against any big moves at the deadline, the Hawks need to be competitive the rest of the season and in the playoffs. Otherwise, they risk Al Horford walking in free agency this summer and leaving them to pick up the pieces.

David Thorpe, ESPN Insider: I see question marks in Orlando: Who are they? Where are they going? In recent years, they have added multiple top-five draft picks, another lottery pick and additional young players, but to what end?

With a fan base that was outstanding in the Dwight Howard years, an incredibly beautiful arena and a portion of the state that wants to support a winner again, Orlando has an amazing opportunity that right now seems too slippery to grasp.

2. Which West team should be most concerned about the risk it faces?

Ford: The Thunder. Kevin Durant is a free agent this summer. The team needs to leave a strong lasting impression on him. If OKC can knock off the Spurs and/or Warriors in the playoffs, the pressure on him to stay increases. If the Thunder falter, the justification for him to leave increases.

Haberstroh:  Houston Rockets. This is a team hovering around .500 with Dwight Howard possibly looking for a max contract this summer. It's a volatile situation in the locker room, one that was not made any easier after losing the 2016 first-round pick in the failed deal centered on Donatas Motiejunas and Marcus Thornton. There's a lot of uncertainty when you shake up Houston's crystal ball.

Thorpe: It would be easy to discuss the Kings here, but I'm looking to OKC. The Thunder made a coaching change and added Enes Kanter, and by anyone's measure they are playing very well. But keeping this core together seems to rest so much on the very small chance they have of winning the West.

It's hard to imagine Durant leaving the West champs. Otherwise, however, the Thunder are stuck on just one win in the NBA Finals (Game 1 vs. Miami, four years ago). And his departure could be what leads a larger exodus down the road a year or two.

Pelton:  Memphis Grizzlies. If the Grizzlies fall out of the postseason, they'll lose the ensuing lottery pick to the Denver Nuggets unless it lands in the top three. And Memphis faces the same issue as Atlanta of trying to re-sign a key unrestricted free agent ( Mike Conley). While the worst outcomes aren't likely, they are risks.

Elhassan: The Thunder. With Durant's impending free agency this summer -- and Russell Westbrook's coming in the following summer -- everything OKC does these next two seasons feels like an unofficial referendum. The idea that this team is not only not good enough to win a championship but perhaps not good enough to place in the conference finals might be an unpalatable one for Durant and/or Westbrook.

3. Which East player should be most concerned about the risk he faces?

Thorpe:  Paul George. Now that he has recovered from his leg injury, what's next for him? He turns 26 in May. Will he and the Pacers always play second fiddle to LeBron's teams? Will they ever break through?

If the postseason goes well, he will probably feel at home in Indiana. But if it doesn't, with a contract that runs for three more years, he might be caught in a difficult bind.

Pelton: Hassan Whiteside. He is in line for a max deal from someone if he takes care of business the remainder of the season. But if the maturity issues that have hampered Whiteside in the past once again rear their ugly head, particularly in the playoffs, he could cost himself money.

Haberstroh:  Bradley Beal. As an impending restricted free agent with overuse injury history and a team desperate to win now in Washington, Beal has the most to lose from an injury standpoint. He'll have some protection with his restricted status, but if the leg issues creep up again, he could lose millions this summer with the "injury-prone" label scaring off teams.

But then again, something similar happened to Stephen Curry and look where that got him.

Elhassan:  LeBron James. What was meant to be a double-edged stroke of genius -- come to a roster with a longer window of contention than Miami's and bring a title back home -- now seems like the ultimate Clevelandic fate: new and inventive ways to not win the championship, despite being so close you can smell the champagne. This might be more heartbreaking to Northeast Ohio than had he never come back.

Ford:  Derrick Rose. There is hand-wringing in Chicago about his future with the Bulls. A poor run in the playoffs could add incentive for the Bulls to try to find a different answer at point guard this summer.

4. Which West player should be most concerned about the risk he faces?

Pelton: Dwight Howard. His next contract will surely be Howard's last big contract, and whether he can get four fully guaranteed years -- or even a fifth year from the Rockets -- will go a long way toward determining his future earning potential. For that, Howard must stay healthy and produce down the stretch and into the postseason.

Thorpe: By May we should get a firm handle on how the Spurs' LaMarcus Aldridge acquisition is going. If they roll to the West finals, things are happening as expected.

But the Thunder are built to give the Spurs a great series, and how Aldridge plays against them (assuming a West semifinals matchup) will tell a huge story about the next few years. Play well and it's not a big story. Play poorly, and he will have to answer far more questions than he ever did in Portland.

Elhassan:  James Harden. Durant might leave OKC, but he'll be OK; Chris Paul and Blake Griffin may not be good enough to win the title (or even reach the conference finals), but they'll win 50 games a year like clockwork; Howard's reputation is shot to hell no matter what he does.

But Harden! The Beard has gone from the toast of Houston to just toast. Coach killer, terrible defender, selfish player on a .500 team: This is a far cry from what his rep was a mere nine months ago.

Haberstroh: I already mentioned Howard, so I'll go with Lance Stephenson. It's hard seeing Memphis picking up a team option for $9.4 million this summer, so it's a real possibility that three teams will have gotten rid of him in a year's time.

If he can't show an ability to help Memphis win games, I could see a scenario where Stephenson is forced to take a minimum contract next summer a la Gerald Green.

Ford: Chris Paul. His legacy has been slightly tarnished by his playoff losses. Whether the Clippers can get past the Spurs or Warriors is questionable. But Paul really needs to have an epic playoff run.

5. Which team or player's long-term risk do you find most fascinating?

Haberstroh: Whiteside. Is he Hassan Wilt-side, as some Heat fans call him? Or is he the next JaVale McGee, whose big-time stats turned out to be empty calories? I'm still not sure where he falls on that spectrum, but putting up 25 points and 23 rebounds off the bench in his first game back from suspension crystallizes the wide range of possibilities.

His free agency this summer feels like Chapter 3 of a long, fascinating NBA tale.

Pelton:  Harrison Barnes' future with the Golden State Warriors. Are the Warriors willing to match a max offer to Barnes? Would they risk breaking up a team threatening to post the greatest season of all time? Could he be expendable in the pursuit of Durant? There's a lot going on here, with historic stakes.

Elhassan: Oklahoma City, by far. What happens to Durant (and later on to Westbrook) has the potential to severely alter the landscape of the NBA.

Ford: Philadelphia. To see real results from their first three years with Sam Hinkie as GM, they need to get a superstar in this draft, have a full recovery for Joel Embiid, get Dario Saric over from Europe and make moves in free agency to fill out their backcourt. That's a lot to accomplish in an offseason. If they can't, the regime change that started with the arrival of Jerry Colangelo might gear up.

Thorpe: Minnesota has been fortunate to get two absurdly talented young guys with great attitudes in Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. But for a decade or so, the Timberwolves have proved unable to build a fully-functioning franchise, creating risks for both the team and its budding stars.

Together they can rise to be contenders, or they can bounce around oozing promise and entertainment wrapped in too many losses. We'll see if the Wolves will be up to handling the burden of good fortune.