DFS NASCAR: Drivers to build around at Dover

ByMATTHEW WILLIS
September 28, 2016, 3:50 PM

— -- Sunday's race at New Hampshire was dominated by the high-cost drivers. Four drivers distanced themselves from the pack, each putting up more than 70 DraftKings fantasy points.

They were Matt Kenseth (97.75), Martin Truex Jr. (89.25), Kevin Harvick (78) and Kyle Busch (70.25). Each cost over $10,000 and were the four most expensive drivers in the field. Fifth was Carl Edwards at $9,800, but he only put up 51.75 points.

In this space last week, I said to start your team with Harvick, but to keep an eye on Truex and Busch as well. In the weekend, post-qualifying preview, I stuck with Truex and Harvick as my top high-cost picks.

My mid-value picks were mostly based on start/finish differential. Austin Dillon gave a big boost there, starting 29th and finishing 16th. Greg Biffle couldn't quite move up from his 32nd-place spot. Clint Bowyer, the top low-cost pick, went 37th to 22nd for 37 points.

But that was last week, now we're off to Dover. Dover is a similar length to New Hampshire, but a totally different track configuration. As a high-banked track, it's more similar to Bristol, but nearly twice the size.

The story here recently has been the huge day of laps led. Look no further than this race last year and driver who won Sunday, Kevin Harvick. Harvick led 355 laps, had 135 fastest laps, and won from a 15th-place starting spot for 216.25 points. Since all the stats for daily fantasy NASCAR began to be tracked in 2005, that's the most points a driver has been put up in any race.

In fact, this shorter, higher banked track type is where the huge points days happen. Going back to 2005, six of the seven highest-scoring days have come at either Dover or Bristol, with three at each track.

How do those points come? Usually from the laps led and fastest laps, which earn .75 points a lap if you get them both, which drivers often do. The start/finish differential doesn't quite accumulate those huge points.

Of the 40 highest scores at Bristol and Dover since 2005, 38 of them have come from drivers starting better than 20th, with the two exceptions being drivers who won from outside the top 20, although both still led more than 100 laps.

So here's what I'm thinking early in the week for some Dover picks. Check back again after qualifying for my final picks and fades.

I'm starting my team with:

It's easy to go with the driver who put up 216.25 points here last year, but that's not Kevin Harvick's only solid run at Dover. For four straight Dover races, Harvick has led at least 91 laps, with more than 60 fastest laps each time.

Over the last three seasons, since Harvick moved to Stewart-Haas Racing, there are only two drivers who have averaged more than 100 DraftKings points per race at a single track. One is Harvick, who has done it at Dover, Phoenix and Darlington, and the other is Brad Keselowski at Kentucky.

Keep an eye on these four:

Martin Truex Jr.: I've been game on Truex everywhere lately, as he's in the midst of the best stretch of his career, including dominating another race last week at New Hampshire, even though he didn't win. Truex has been outperforming has career averages recently, and he was already pretty good at Dover.

Truex got his first career win at Dover for DEI in 2007, leading 216 laps after starting 26th. And even when he struggled in 2014, he still finished sixth and seventh in the two Dover races.

Kyle Larson: Larson was on the best streak of his career heading into the Chase, with three straight top-three finishes, but started the Chase with an 18th at Chicago and a 10th at New Hampshire. I expect him to turn it back around at Dover, where he's never finished worse than 11th in five starts. In the spring race here, he finished second, and topped 100 points thanks to his 85 laps led and 37 fastest laps.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Let's work our way down the salary scale. In the last four races at Dover and Bristol (two at each track), Stenhouse has a 10th-place average finish, and thanks to his 22.3 average starting position in those races, he averages 49.6 fantasy points per race.

Ryan Blaney: Blaney will also come cheaply, and in his only Cup race at Dover, started 18th and finished eighth, good for 47 points. With a small sample size, I like to look at what a driver did in the second-tier Xfinity Series at the track. In Blaney's start here last October in that series, he won the pole and finished fourth.