Fantasy Fallout: Brady keeps it going in Week 2
— -- A Buffalo Bills battle? "Bah!" blurts Brady.
With his 28 fantasy points Sunday, New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has an NFL-leading 55 fantasy points through the season's two weeks.
Only eight quarterbacks since 1960 had more through their team's first two games. Brady was one of them: He scored 62 fantasy points through his Patriots' first two games of the 2011 season, en route to a 352-point campaign, which ranks tied for eighth all-time among quarterbacks. Brady is now the only quarterback during that time span to score as many as 55 fantasy points through two games in multiple seasons.
Four other quarterbacks, like Brady this season, scored exactly 55 through two games. Listed below are the 12 total quarterbacks to score at least that many, with stats showing how their seasons concluded:
These 12 who scored 55 or more through two games averaged 14.8 fantasy points per game the rest of those seasons, which, if Brady matches, would give him 262. This group, though, also has been responsible for the first- (Peyton Manning, 2013), sixth- (Steve Young, 1998, tied) and eighth-best (Brady and Cam Newton, 2011) single-season fantasy points campaigns among quarterbacks. Those four quarterbacks averaged 366-point seasons.
By the way, the 15 quarterbacks to manage at least 50 fantasy points in their first two games to begin a season since 2001 averaged 278 fantasy points come season's end, and 302 if you prorate their averages to full 16-game seasons (remember, Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick in 2013, Drew Brees in 2009, Donovan McNabb in 2004 and Robert Griffin III in 2012, all missed at least one game in those seasons). So it's awfully tough to dispute Brady's 300-fantasy-point chances, or his top-five fantasy quarterback potential going forward.
Incidentally, let's not forget how difficult this most recent Brady matchup appeared on paper, a road game against Rex Ryan's stingy Bills defense. By scoring 28 fantasy points against Buffalo, Brady continued his career mastery of them: It represented the fifth time in his career that Brady managed at least 25 fantasy points in a game against them, more than any other quarterback has against that team in history.
In fairness to both sides, though, Brady also has been held to eight fantasy points or fewer by the Bills six times during his career, including in two of his past four games against them. That said, both of those past two stinkers came in Week 17, once in 2013 (8) and again in 2014 (3).
Good first and second impressions?
Coming off an eye-popping, 24-fantasy-point NFL debut, rookie Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota on Sunday faced a steeper challenge in Game 2, battling a reputable Cleveland Browns secondary. And while Mariota's 15-point fantasy performance paled in comparison to Week 1, it gave him an impressive 39 points through two games.
That two-game pace puts Mariota on track for a whopping 312 fantasy points come season's end, and it puts him within 161 points of becoming only the seventh rookie quarterback in history to score at least 200 fantasy points. These are the previous six:
Second-round stinker
The future was looking bright -- and arguably still does -- for sophomore Cincinnati Bengals running back Jeremy Hill. From Week 10 through the conclusion of the 2014 season, Hill scored 99 fantasy points, tied for seventh-most among running backs. That helped earn him a No. 17 overall ADP (average draft position) this preseason, 10th among running backs. Those who selected him were then rewarded with an 18-fantasy-point Week 1, tied for fifth best at the position.
Entering Week 2, Hill again had the look of an RB1, easily earning a consensus top-10 ranking. He was to battle the San Diego Chargers, who afforded 27 total fantasy points to Detroit Lions running backs in their season opener.
Hill's final tally: 10 carries, 11 total touches, minus-1 fantasy points.
By scoring in the red, Hill earned a dubious honor: He became the first player selected in the first two rounds -- that's the top 20 picks overall -- on average in ESPN drafts to register a negative point total in a game in that same season since Randy Moss, who scored the same minus-1 during Week 14 of the 2009 season. (Incidentally, fellow top-20 pick Steve Slaton scored minus-1 just six weeks before that in the same season.)
Expanding the scope to zero-fantasy-point-or-worse performances during a top-20-ADP season, there have been considerably more such examples just in the past three seasons alone. To help encourage -- or perhaps discourage? -- Hill's owners, here's a quick look at those individual examples, as well as their seasonal outputs:
Miscellany
- Since Week 11 of 2013, a span of 25 games, Antonio Brown has scored 588 fantasy points in PPR leagues (ESPN standard scoring plus one point per reception). That's 70 more fantasy points than any other player has during that span. Since 1960, Jerry Rice is the only wide receiver to score more fantasy points over a 25-game span, having scored 620 during such a 25-game span from Week 10 of the 1994 season through Week 1 of the 1996 season. Brown's 398 standard-scoring fantasy points are 12th most at any position during that same time span, and are 67 more than any other wide receiver.
- New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr.'s 20 fantasy points on Sunday represented a pleasant bounce-back from his disappointing, four-point Week 1 performance. But perhaps more important, they gave him 221 fantasy points in his first 14 NFL games, the most by any wide receiver since 1960.
- Would you believe that Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald's 29 fantasy points Sunday tied his previous career high, set in Week 17 of the 2007 season?
- Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski scored 17 fantasy points Sunday to give him 44 through his first two games this season. Only one tight end since 1960 scored more fantasy points through his team's first two games: Ben Coates, who had 50 for the 1994 Patriots. Unfortunately, Coates cooled significantly from that point forward, scoring only 99 fantasy points in his next 14 contests.
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