GameDay Final: Chaotic Saturday trips up CFP contenders

ByMARK SCHLABACH
November 13, 2016, 10:01 AM

— -- We knew chaos would show its big, beautiful face in college football once the calendar flipped to November.

We figured it would return during the final week of the regular season, when No. 1 Alabama played No. 9 Auburn in the Iron Bowl, No. 3 Michigan played No. 5 Ohio State in The Game, and No. 4 Washington played No. 23 Washington State in the Apple Cup.

But if we've learned anything about the world's greatest sport during the past 100 seasons or so, it's that chaos returns when we least expect it.

Saturday was supposed to be a ho-hum day for the top College Football Playoff contenders. Each of the top three teams in the CFP rankings -- Alabama, Clemson and Michigan -- were favored by more than three touchdowns. No. 4 Washington was a 7?-point favorite over No. 20 USC at home.

It looked like another opportunity for the last remaining unbeaten FBS teams to pile up style points and move a step closer to securing one of the four spots in the playoff.

Yeah, right.

For only the second time in the history of the AP top 25, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 each lost on the same day during the regular season. The last time it happened was Oct. 19, 1985, and Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh has the dubious distinction of being involved in both of them.

First, Pittsburgh stunned No. 2 Clemson 43-42 at Death Valley on? Chris Blewitt's?48-yard field goal with six seconds left. The loss was Clemson's first against an unranked opponent in 46 games and also ended its 21-game home winning streak, which was the longest in the FBS.

Shortly after the Tigers fell, USC bullied Washington in a 26-13 win in Seattle, ending the Huskies' 12-game winning streak. Trojans freshman Sam Darnold threw for 287 yards with two touchdowns and upstaged Heisman Trophy candidate Jake Browning, who was harassed by USC's defense all night. After losing three of their first four games, the Trojans have won six in a row.

And then finally, unranked Iowa, which lost 41-14 at Penn State last week, stunned Michigan 14-13 at home. Freshman Keith Duncan kicked a 33-yard field goal as time expired to give the Hawkeyes their first victory over a top-five ranked opponent in six years. Iowa's last win over a No. 2-ranked Michigan team was a 12-10 victory on Oct. 19, 1985, when Harbaugh was the Wolverines' starting quarterback. Iowa's Rob Houghtlin kicked a 29-yard field goal as time expired to beat the Wolverines that day.

How unlikely were Saturday's dramatic events? According to ESPN's Football Power Index, there was only a 5 percent chance that at least two of the four remaining unbeaten teams would lose and a 0.3 percent chance that at least three would fall.

"Is college football not the greatest thing in the free world?" USC coach Clay Helton said. "Unbelievable."

Most unbelievable is that the surprising outcomes probably won't affect the CFP selection committee's rankings all that much when they're released Tuesday night. Each of the previously unbeaten teams that lost are still in position to win their respective conference championships, which carries a lot of weight with the committee.

About the only certainty we know is that defending national champion Alabama will remain No. 1 after blasting Mississippi State 51-3. The teams that lost for the first time will fall in line in somewhere behind the Crimson Tide.

Washington coach Chris Petersen summed it up best after the Huskies' loss to the Trojans, saying, "[When] guys are looking down the horizon, they get hit right between the eyes."

And there's a good chance that our old friend chaos is out there somewhere waiting to do it again.

Playoff teams after Week 11

1. Alabama : The Crimson Tide won twice, cruising to a 51-3 rout over Mississippi State and then winning the SEC West title after Auburn lost 13-7 at Georgia. Alabama plays FCS foe Chattanooga next week, then closes the regular season against rival Auburn at home in the Iron Bowl on Nov. 26.

2. Ohio State : By defeating then-No. 10 Nebraska and Maryland by identical 62-3 scores the past two weeks, the Buckeyes became the first team in 30 seasons to score at least 60 points and give up fewer than 10 in consecutive conference games. The last three teams to pull off the feat -- Oklahoma in 1986, Michigan in '71 and UCLA in '54 -- went on to win conference championships.

3. Michigan : The Wolverines fell from the unbeaten ranks with a 14-13 loss at Iowa. They can probably still reach the CFP if they beat Indiana (home) and No. 5 Ohio State (road) in their last two regular-season games and then win the Big Ten championship game.

4. Clemson : The Tigers' stunning 43-42 loss to Pittsburgh at Death Valley was its first home defeat since falling to Florida State in 2013. But ESPN's Football Power Index still gives the Tigers a 94 percent chance to win the ACC Atlantic and an 80 percent chance to win the ACC. As long as it doesn't lose again, Clemson's still very much alive in the CFP race.

Next four in contention

1. Louisville : After another slow start, the Cardinals dominated Wake Forest in the second half of a 44-12 victory at home. After trailing 12-3 at the half, the Cardinals scored 34 points in the final 10:35. The Cardinals have to bounce back quickly for Thursday night's trip to Houston, before closing the season at home against rival Kentucky on Nov. 26.

2. Washington : The Huskies' 26-13 loss to USC in Seattle doesn't knock them out of the CFP race, but it sure raised some concerns about whether they're still the best team in the Pac-12. As long as Washington wins its last two games against Arizona State (home) and No. 23 Washington State (road), and then wins the Pac-12 championship game, it will have a good chance of being one of the four teams in the playoff.

3. Wisconsin : The Badgers remained in control of the Big West by crushing Illinois 48-3 at home. Tailback Corey Clement ran for 123 yards and three touchdowns, and the Wisconsin defense intercepted Illinois quarterback Jeff George Jr. four times. The Badgers play at Purdue next week and then host Minnesota in a regular-season finale that might decide the division title.

4. Penn State : The Nittany Lions get the nod over Oklahoma for now because of their 24-21 win over Ohio State on Oct. 22. They won 45-31 at Indiana and should cruise in their final two games against Rutgers (road) and Michigan State (home). If Penn State wins out, Ohio State can't win the Big Ten East. But if Michigan wins out, the Wolverines claim the division title.

Heisman candidates

1. Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville: For the first time this season, Jackson actually looked human in the first half against Wake Forest, before leading the Cardinals to a 44-12 victory. He completed 14 of 26 passes for 145 yards with one touchdown, and ran 22 times for 153 yards. It was his lowest passing total and fewest touchdowns in a game this season.

2. Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama: After Washington's Jake Browning and Clemson's Deshaun Watson struggled, maybe it's time to give the Alabama freshman some serious consideration. In the rout of Mississippi State, Hurts became the first Tide quarterback to pass for 300 yards and run for 100 in a game, completing 28 of 37 passes for 347 yards and running 11 times for 100. It was his fourth 100-yard rushing performance, most in a season by an Alabama quarterback, and he tied another school single-game record with five touchdowns (four passing and one rushing).

3. Dede Westbrook, WR, Oklahoma: Westbrook had four catches for 88 yards with two touchdowns in the Sooners' 45-24 win over Baylor, giving him 14 touchdown catches in 10 games, which is one shy of the Sooners' single-season record. Each of his 14 touchdown catches and 1,100 of his 1,254 receiving yards have come in the past seven games.

4. D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas: Foreman ran for 167 yards on 35 carries in the Longhorns' 24-20 loss to West Virginia, his 11th consecutive game with more than 100 rushing yards, tying Earl Campbell's school record and extending the longest active FBS streak. Foreman has 758 rushing yards with five touchdowns in his last three games.

Best moments

Tweets of the night

Best plays

Worst plays

Quotes of the night

1. "Everything's hard on me. Going gray. Losing hair. Getting fat. You name it. It's hard. It's fun, too. I'ma go enjoy it." -- West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen after his team's 24-20 win at Texas.

2. "It's one of the things we've been wanting to do is try to develop some confidence in the passing game, and obviously he was able to do that very well today. He got the ball to some of our playmakers down the field and they had opportunities to make big plays." -- Alabama coach Nick Saban on freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts.

3. "We always joke about the offense, that you want to be good up the middle, and we were missing all three -- the center, the quarterback and the b-back. Those guys filled in. Since I've been coaching football, I don't know if I ever started three true freshmen on the offensive line, especially on the road. Someone forgot to tell them they were freshmen, they just went out there and played." -- Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson, after the undermanned Yellow Jackets upset No. 14 Virginia Tech 30-20 on the road.

4. "I can't worry about that, and I really don't worry about that. I have a really good group of guys and I know they are going to play for me." -- Texas coach Charlie Strong, on his job security after the Longhorns fell to 5-5.

Stats that matter

1. 112: The longest regular-season winning streak in NCAA history ended Saturday when Division III John Carroll upset Mount Union 31-28, ending the Purple Raiders' 112-game winning streak. Mount Union hadn't lost in the regular season since falling to Ohio Northern on Oct. 22, 2005. The Purple Raiders are 222-1 in their past 223 games dating to 1994.

2. 443: Kentucky rushed for 443 yards in its 49-36 loss at Tennessee, its highest rushing total in a game since it ran for 446 against Tennessee Tech in 1951. The Wildcats became the first FBS team to lose a game this season when rushing for 400 yards or more; teams were 30-0 when doing it before Saturday.

3. 127-0: After losing to Michigan State 49-0, Rutgers has been outscored 127-0 by the two Big Ten teams from Michigan (the Wolverines defeated the Scarlet Knights 78-0 on Oct. 8). It was Michigan State's first Big Ten win, and Nov. 12 is the latest the Spartans have won their first conference game since going winless in Big Ten play in 1958.

4. 45: Alabama's 51-3 win over Mississippi State was the 45th game in which Nick Saban coached the No. 1-ranked team in the AP top 25 poll (he's 40-5 in such games). His total tied Bobby Bowden and Woody Hayes for the most in major college football history.