Four matchups to watch in wild-card round

BySTEVE PALAZZOLO
January 7, 2016, 1:48 PM

— -- It's a wide-open playoff picture and it all starts with wild-card weekend. The NFC looks strong at the top with the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals on a bye, but this weekend will feature the always-dangerous Seattle Seahawks, an Aaron Rodgers-led Green Bay Packers team, a fierce Minnesota Vikings defense and a hot Washington Redskins offense. Any of the six teams could make it through to the Super Bowl in what should be a wild NFC playoff race.

The story of the AFC starts with the quarterbacks, with nondescript players like Alex Smith, Brian Hoyer and AJ McCarron lacing them up this weekend. However, the media darling is the sixth-seeded Pittsburgh Steelers, whose explosive passing attack won many fans a fantasy football championship. With the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos facing question marks as they sit at home on a bye, the AFC representative could be playing this weekend as well.

Here's a look at the key matchups that will dictate this weekend's games.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. Chiefs CBs Sean Smith and Marcus Peters

Few receivers can take over a game the way Hopkins does, and with the lack of consistent options surrounding him, he'll need to be the key piece once again in Houston's passing attack. He finished tied for sixth with a 91.5 PFF rating while ranking third in the league in both receptions (111) and yards (1,521). His 187 targets also ranked third in the league, and he was targeted almost 100 times more than his next-closest teammate, Nate Washington.

The Chiefs' defense has its cornerbacks predominantly stick to one side, so it will be up to both Smith and Peters to slow Hopkins down. Smith aligns on the right side, where his 82.1 coverage grade ranks 19th; he surrendered 42 receptions on 79 targets into his coverage to go with five touchdowns, two interceptions and eight passes defensed.

On the other side, Peters has had a boom-or-bust rookie season, facing more targets (137) than any cornerback since 2007. Due to the high volume, the raw stats were great, as he picked off eight passes and deflected 17 more to lead the league, both numbers that place him as the favorite in media circles for defensive rookie of the year. However, with the good came the bad: He gave up 69 receptions for 939 yards to go with eight touchdowns.

Kansas City's cornerbacks are a strength of the team, but there are plays to be made for Hopkins.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals CB Dre Kirkpatrick vs. Steelers WRs Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant

The rubber match between division rivals always brings an added dynamic to the playoff picture. The Steelers' passing game will be the key to the team's playoff run, though Cincinnati has done a fine job of slowing Pittsburgh down in the first two matchups. The Bengals play a lot of "two-high" coverages, keeping two safeties deep and encouraging the offense to throw shorter routes, a strategy also conducive to hiding weaknesses in the secondary. Although the Bengals are deep on the back end, the weakness is Kirkpatrick, who ranks 111th of the top 119 cornerbacks, and with Brown and Bryant on the outside, it's a matchup the Steelers should win.

Brown is the league's best receiver at 96.9 overall, while Bryant brings an explosive yet inconsistent dynamic to the offense (15.3 yards per reception, 7.0 YAC per reception, but 11 dropped passes). Both players should have plenty of opportunities to make plays against Kirkpatrick, particularly after the catch, where Kirkpatrick's 16 missed tackles rank second among cornerbacks.

When you consider that Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger led the league with an accuracy percentage of 50.7 on deep passes (20-plus yards in the air), Kirkpatrick figures to be targeted often. To Cincinnati's credit, the Bengals have slowed the Pittsburgh passing game while forcing Roethlisberger into making bad decisions with the ball, and they'll need Kirkpatrick to overcome this matchup if they're going to move on in the playoffs.

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings

Vikings OTs Matt Kalil and T.J. Clemmings vs. Seahawks DEs Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett and Frank Clark

The Seahawks are starting to feel like the team that has been to the Super Bowl each of the past two seasons, and the defense is rounding into form after a number of uncharacteristic early-season lapses. While the secondary often gets the credit, Seattle's pass rush has always been at the forefront of the team's success, and this year is no different.

Bennett's 86.7 pass-rush rating ranks seventh among edge defenders, while Avril is right behind Bennett at 85.1, good for 10th. The added dimension this year is rookie Clark, who has picked up 3 sacks, 4 hits and 18 hurries on his 233 rushes. He replaces Bennett on the edge in sub packages, allowing the Pro Bowler to kick inside to rush against guards.

The multifaceted pass rush is a handful for any team, but it will be an especially difficult matchup for Minnesota's offensive tackle tandem of Kalil and Clemmings. Kalil has improved after a disastrous season in 2014, but his pass protection still ranks 51st of 76 qualifiers at tackle (6 sacks, 7 hits, 31 hurries on 556 attempts).

It's been even worse on the other side, where Clemmings has had a difficult rookie season, ranking 60th in pass protection while surrendering 8 sacks, 3 hits and 39 hurries on 553 attempts. When you throw in Minnesota's penchant for deeper dropbacks that put even more pressure on the offensive line, the pressure is on Kalil and Clemmings to keep the pocket clean against one of the league's best pass-rushing teams.

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins

Redskins TE Jordan Reed vs. Packers safety Micah Hyde

The statistical improvement of Redskins QB Kirk Cousins is directly related to his versatile playmakers: WRs DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon and the all-around threat of Reed. Reed's 93.7 receiving rating ranks third and he's productive whether lined up as a traditional tight end (40 receptions, 488 yards), in the slot (26 receptions, 283 yards) or out wide as a receiver (20 receptions, 172 yards).

To combat the Redskins' passing game, the Packers have a number of solid coverage players with varied skill sets, and Hyde will draw the majority of the assignments on Reed as he plays against tight ends and slot receivers in Green Bay's dime defense. Like Peters from Kansas City, there's some boom or bust to Hyde's game: He's given up 71.4 percent of his targets to be completed for 438 yards, but he's also intercepted three passes while deflecting two others. It evens out to a strong 79.9 coverage grade that ranks 22nd out of 87 qualifying safeties, so his ability to limit Reed's big plays will go a long way toward slowing down the red-hot Washington offense.