Race to the Chase scenarios with four weeks to go

— -- The Chase for the Sprint Cup has four spots open for drivers who haven't won a race this year.

Or maybe five. Or possibly three if there is another new winner. There are plenty of scenarios.

Five drivers getting in on points depends on whether Pocono winner Chris Buescher gets into the top 30 when the regular season comes to a close. Four races remain -- Bristol, Michigan, Darlington and Richmond -- before the Chase field is set.

The regular-season champion and then the next 15 drivers, based on wins and then points, make the Chase. A driver must be in the top 30 in points to take advantage of the win. Here's how the Chase looks heading into another unpredictable race Saturday night at Bristol Motor Speedway:

The 11 drivers with wins and safely in the top 30 in points are Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano and Tony Stewart.

Then there is Buescher, who is three points behind David Ragan for 30th in the standings. Buescher should be able to do it, but it won't be easy. There's a reason only three points separate them -- they have run near each other for much of the season. And the BK Racing cars that Ragan drives can be competitive at the short tracks such as Bristol and Richmond. This could come down to mistakes. Give the edge to Buescher, though, especially because he will have a horsepower edge at Michigan and Darlington.

Thanks to AJ Allmendinger dumping Kyle Larson on the last lap at Watkins Glen, four winless drivers know that as long as they don't have issues and no one else outside the top 14 wins a race, they likely will make the Chase.

Of course, few would have predicted Buescher's victory earlier this month at Pocono. And Larson wasn't having an issue at The Glen until Allmendinger turned him and cost him 25 points on the final turn.

If Buescher doesn't make it into the top 30, right now Larson would make the Chase, with Trevor Bayne the first driver out at eight points back. But if Buescher does make it, Larson would not as it stands now because he sits 30 points behind Ganassi teammate Jamie McMurray for that last spot (assuming there are no other new winners).

Ryan Newman is the highest winless driver in the standings. He has a 42-point edge on Larson and a 50-point edge on Bayne. He should feel good about making the Chase.

Chase Elliott, despite a recent stretch of four races outside the top 20 in the past six, still has a 41-point edge on Larson and a 49-point edge on Bayne. Like Newman, he should feel pretty good. But he can't feel too confident, as he has only two lead-lap finishes in the previous six races.

Elliott has to be feeling the pressure as a rookie. He probably has told himself several times during the off week that he finished fourth at Bristol and second at Michigan earlier this year -- and those are the next two races on the schedule.

Austin Dillon (39 points up on Larson, 47 on Bayne) was in great shape until his 31st-place finish at The Glen. He has been solid enough on intermediate tracks this year that he should be in good shape come Richmond as long as he doesn't get caught up in anything at Bristol.

McMurray (30 points up on Larson, 38 on Bayne) has the benefit of being one of the most consistent drivers this year -- he sits 14th in points without leading a lap all season. While on the bubble, if he just repeats his finishes from Bristol, Richmond and Michigan (a 13th, 16th and a ninth) and is respectable at Darlington, he should make the Chase.

Larson is in the worst spot. He needs to take chances to earn a win if Buescher cracks the top 30, but taking a chance and costing himself points could end up dropping him below Bayne or one of the others.

Of all the drivers on the bubble, Larson has knocked on the door enough that a win isn't totally out of the question. He was third at Michigan in June.

Bayne's best hope, obviously, is for Buescher to finish outside the top 30. If he does, Bayne has a legitimate chance of catching Larson. That might seem like a stretch, but don't forget Bayne finished fifth at Bristol earlier this year. He also was a top-20 finisher at Richmond and Michigan. One more bad day for Larson, and Bayne could capitalize.

Kasey Kahne (11 points behind Larson) and Ryan Blaney (18 points) both could get in on points if Buescher and Larson falter. Kahne would seem the logical choice considering his experience, but that hasn't helped him all that much this year and Hendrick Motorsports has been struggling. The one thing Kahne does have in his favor: He is great at Richmond, where he had one of his two fourth-place finishes this year.

Winless drivers who are more than 60 points behind McMurray and 30 points behind Larson have virtually no shot to get in on points. These drivers need a win: Allmendinger, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Paul Menard, Greg Biffle, Danica Patrick, Clint Bowyer, Aric Almirola, Casey Mears, Landon Cassill and Ragan.

Among them, the driver who has led the most laps this year? Allmendinger with 24.

But, hey, Buescher had not led a lap all season until his victory at Pocono. Which just goes to show that nothing is impossible when talking about Chase scenarios with four races left in the regular season.