Why a run-first scheme is best for Manning, Broncos
— -- John Elway knows the value of a quarterback in his late 30s changing from a pass-centric to a run-heavy offense. It helped him win two Super Bowls at a time when it appeared he might end his career without one. This mindset is part of why the Denver Broncos, with Elway making their personnel decisions, want to make significant changes to their offense.
The wild card here is QB Peyton Manning. He has always run a pass-first system and could be reticent to embrace another approach this late in his career. The hesitation would be understandable, but a closer look at the Broncos' scheme and personnel offers a host of reasons why a change in philosophy could be just what Denver needs to win the Super Bowl.
A powerful rushing attack
Last season, C.J. Anderson finished tied for second in the league in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric. This statistic gauges how productive a ball carrier is when opposing teams don't disrupt a rush attempt. GBYPA is a good indicator of a running back's ceiling, so Anderson -- just 186 carries into his career -- has the look of a stud.
The only back to do better than Anderson's 9.9-yard GBYPA mark was Baltimore running back Justin Forsett (11.4). Why is that significant? Forsett's offensive coordinator last season was Gary Kubiak -- the same Gary Kubiak who has since taken over as Denver's head coach.
Kubiak's biggest positive influence on Anderson could be giving the 24-year-old more open space. Last season, Denver placed 25th in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric, which measures how often an offense gives its ball carriers quality running lanes. Kubiak's Ravens tied for 12th in GBR last year, and his Houston clubs finished in the top 10 in each of his final three campaigns with the Texans. Expect Denver to show a significant GBR improvement in 2015.
The Broncos' rushing attack should also benefit from superb depth. In the last five weeks of the 2013 season, Montee Ball posted an 8.8 GBYPA mark (well above the 7.7 leaguewide average) and displayed greatly improved pass-blocking skills. Ball was an elite red zone back at Wisconsin -- a trait that helped him break the Big Ten single-season record for touchdowns -- so Denver could find a role for him as a lead back, an alternate breakaway threat, a goal-line back, or any combination of these roles. Add in the pass-catching skills of Ronnie Hillman, and an argument could be made that Denver has the best running back trio in the NFL.
A potentially dominant defense
Denver's D is no slouch, either. That much is clear after it posted top-flight numbers in a wide variety of categories last season. The Broncos finished second only to Seattle in yards per play (4.7), first in net yards per pass attempt (5.6), fourth in yards per rush (3.7), second in rush yards allowed per game (79.8) and ninth in passing yards allowed per game (225.4).
And remember: This D did it while playing opposite a pass-first offense, which is even more impressive. If the Broncos' rushing game is able to improve Denver's No. 13 ranking in time of possession, that would give the defense a good shot at improving across the board.
Declining vertical pass production
At this stage of his career, you'd hope Manning himself realizes that a run-first attack is both beneficial andnecessary. His play declined sharply in the second half of last season, particularly on vertical throws (11 or more yards downfield). During the first nine weeks his 2014 campaign, Manning's 13.3 vertical yards per attempt ranked fourth. From Weeks 10-17, that number dipped to 10.8, which ranked 15th overall.
During that same span, he also had a league-worst seven bad decisions on vertical passes. (Bad decisions are defined as mental errors made by a passer that lead to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team.) It was a major factor in Manning finishing tied for 25th in vertical interception percentage (6.5 percent) from Weeks 10-17.
To be fair, a portion of the decline in vertical production could be related to his quad injury, but the point remains: Asking a 39-year-old quarterback to continue to carry an offense with downfield throws is a recipe for another early playoff exit.
Play-action woes
Some of the issues with vertical production stem from play-action passing woes. In his first two seasons in Denver, Manning was the best play-action passer in the league: He finished first in Total QBR (96.1), yards per attempt (11.7), touchdowns (24) and yards (3,201) and ranked second in completion percentage (67.0).
That play-action production took a big hit last season, as Manning's 80.8 Total QBR on play-action for the season was tied for 11th and his 54.1 Total QBR from Weeks 10-17 ranked 24th. Part of the reason for the dip? Defenses were not honoring the play-action fakes as they had in previous years. A change in philosophy would force defenses to respect the run, freeing Manning to again make big plays with the defense off-kilter.
Bottom line
If Manning goes all-in on this approach, it would give him better passing opportunities and help keep him healthy late into the season. If that happens, it should lead Denver, possibly the most talented team in the AFC, to another Super Bowl berth -- and give Manning a chance to go out on top, just as Elway did.
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