Only two other active players show up on the radar for this record. One, not surprisingly, is James, who has a 21.1 percent of breaking Kareem's mark. The other might shock you: Carmelo Anthony. Nobody thinks of him as an all-time great, but the method gives him a 7.6 percent chance of being the game's top all-time scorer if Kobe and LeBron don't get there.
With a 31 percent chance of catching Kareem, KB24 might need some more 81-point nights to become the points king.
There's a good chance Bryant will end up taking more shots than any other player in history. He's established a 33.1 percent chance of owning the record for field-goal attempts, one that's currently held by Abdul-Jabbar.
James (22.4 percent), Anthony (10.9 percent) and Iverson (10.1 percent) also have a good shot at the mark.
Kareem's mark for made field goals, however, seems far more elusive. James has the best chance at 8.4 percent, followed by Bryant at 4.4 percent. Nobody else is in the running for this one.
Moving to the free-throw line, two active players have roughly equal shots at Karl Malone's career record for attempts. Although he's fourth all-time, Shaquille O'Neal isn't one of them. His former teammate Bryant has a 15.2 percent chance of breaking the mark, while the best chance belongs to King James, at 17.4 percent.
Bryant's odds are better when it comes to made free throws. There, he has a 37.2 percent shot of breaking the Mailman's mark, far better than that of James (14.4 percent), Iverson (9.5 percent) or Chris Bosh (4.5 percent).
And then there's the record for just showing up. Thanks to their early arrivals in the NBA, Bryant (9.6 percent), Nowitzki (4.6 percent) and James (4.0 percent) have established a slim chance at owning Robert Parish's career mark of 1,611 games played.
Stockton's no-look act won't be matched by any current players, writes John Hollinger.
If you're thinking of breaking John Stockton's career assists record, just forget it. Even the four players averaging double-figure assists this season registered as having no chance. In fact, to put Stockton's 15,806 mark in perspective, consider that two-time MVP Steve Nash has averaged double-figure assists for four straight seasons … and that if he does it twice more, then at the age of 36, he'll be halfway to Stockton's record.
Another absolutely safe record is Wilt Chamberlain's all-time mark of 23,924 rebounds. Only one active player, Dikembe Mutombo, is even halfway there. Perhaps the "best" chance belongs to Kevin Garnett; to pass Wilt, KG needs only to lead the league in rebounds until he's about 45 years old.
A close third on the impervious list is Moses Malone's career record for offensive rebounds, which stands at 6,731 and is more than 2,000 ahead of any other player in history. No active player, not even Dwight Howard, registered as having any chance. Throw in Moses' 651 offensive boards from the ABA and it gets even more impossible.
Note: Offensive rebounds were not officially counted before 1973-74.
And then there's Oscar Robertson's record of 181 triple-doubles. Jason Kidd is the only active player who is even halfway there, at 99, and even he doesn't register as having any chance. Nor does James; in fact, you might contemplate the difficulty of Robertson's feat by noting that James has only 17 triple-doubles in five pro seasons.
A couple you might not have expected