Trade grades: Who wins the Raptors-Nets deal for Carroll?
The deal
— --
Raptors get:?Center Justin Hamilton
Nets get:?Forward DeMarre Carroll, 2018 first-round pick, 2018 second-round pick
Toronto Raptors: C-
After re-signing Serge Ibaka and Kyle Lowry, the Raptors were looking at a luxury-tax bill of $20-plus million in a (sort of) best-case scenario in which Lowry does not achieve the $2.3 million in bonuses in his new contract. That would mean a payroll in excess of $150 million, a tough sell to Toronto ownership Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment.
Something had to be done, and from the standpoint of performance versus salary, Carroll was a likely target. Knee injuries have compromised his performance, causing Carroll to fall short of the expectations the Raptors had when they signed him to a four-year, $60 million contract two years ago.
Presumably, the Raptors' plan is to move swingman Norman Powell into the starting lineup at shooting guard, bumping DeMar DeRozan to small forward. Powell should be an upgrade on Carroll. With Bruno Caboclo and injured rookie OG Anunoby as the two reserve wings on the roster, a player at that spot is a likely target for the midlevel exception. (The Raptors will probably be limited to their $5.2 million taxpayer midlevel.)
That said, I'm skeptical Toronto can get someone as good as Carroll with the midlevel. C.J. Miles and Thabo Sefolosha are the two remaining free agents I'd consider reasonable facsimiles. For all the concern over his decline, Carroll's steal and block rates remain solid (in fact, he blocked shots more frequently last season than during his previous contract with the Atlanta Hawks). Carroll's shooting efficiency has declined from those days, certainly, but his .530 true shooting percentage wasn't terrible. And Toronto actually played quite well with Carroll on the court, leading to a positive plus-0.8 rating in ESPN's real plus-minus.
Even if the Raptors spend the entirety of their taxpayer midlevel, the savings are still significant. That would cut Toronto's tax bill to a manageable $6 million or so (pending Lowry's incentives), giving the Raptors the possibility of avoiding the tax entirely with further moves midseason.
Whether the picks Toronto gave up are a fair price for that savings depends on how much value you think Carroll still provides. At this point, getting a first-round pick typically costs a team taking on about $20 million in dead salary. Carroll has a little more than $30 million remaining on his contract but still provides some value. (Hamilton's $3 million salary also offsets a little of the value from this standpoint.)
If you think Carroll is worth about $5 million the next two years, around the value of the taxpayer midlevel, this is a reasonably fair trade for both sides. If Carroll has more value than that, the Raptors are overpaying. I tend to lean toward the latter view.
With the caveat that it might not have saved enough money, I would have favored trying to trade Cory Joseph under the belief that Delon Wright is capable of replacing him, and moving Joseph's salary would not have cost draft picks. Toronto almost certainly considered that possibility before choosing this one instead, so maybe it wasn't possible. But this move could make the Raptors worse on the court this season and worse in the future with the lost draft picks, so I would have worked hard to avoid it.
Brooklyn Nets: A
The Nets pivoted quickly after having their offer to restricted free agent Otto Porter Jr. matched by the Washington Wizards, using part of their cap space to add draft picks and Carroll instead of on another free-agent acquisition.
Next year's draft is the last in which Brooklyn will not have its own first-round pick, and while getting one from Toronto hardly makes up for that -- particularly not with lottery protection on the pick, per Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today, though that's unlikely to come into play -- it gives the Nets another chance to add young talent on a cost-controlled rookie contract.
This trade reunites Carroll with Kenny Atkinson, an assistant with the Hawks when Carroll was there. If he can bounce back in a similar system, I don't think it's inconceivable that Brooklyn could trade Carroll again for a similar contract and a draft pick. In the worst-case scenario where Carroll is no better than replacement level, the Nets have simply committed about $12 million of their cap space this coming season and $15-plus million next season to getting the picks.
Given the Nets' limitations in terms of draft picks, that's a move well worth making. It still leaves them with about $14 million in space to use this summer, plenty of room to add another useful player to the roster.
