Westbrook deal changes OKC's future, so what comes next?

— -- Kevin Durant is gone, but Russell Westbrook is sticking around.

Where does that put the Oklahoma City Thunder next season? Can they still contend in the West? And what comes next for OKC after this summer's dramatic twists and turns?

As crucial as it was for the Thunder to renegotiate and extend the contract of their All-Star point guard, that move -- which is expected to become official Thursday -- is the first big step in the process of rebuilding a contender after Durant's departure.

A new deal with Westbrook that locks him up for at least two more years postpones a decision on whether to trade him and gives Thunder executive vice president and GM Sam Presti more time to upgrade the roster around Westbrook before that point.

Thunder figure to be playoff team in 2016-17

In the short term, Oklahoma City's roster is probably set. Including rookie Domantas Sabonis, who has yet to officially sign, the Thunder have 14 players under guaranteed contracts and will reportedly sign veteran point guard Ronnie Price to fill their final spot.

Though Oklahoma City doesn't figure to contend without Durant, the Thunder don't look like a lottery team either. Westbrook is surrounded by a group of intriguing, young talents such as newly acquired shooting guard Victor Oladipo and center Steven Adams, who are 24 and 23, respectively. A third likely starter, incumbent Andre Roberson, is 25.

An early version of projections using the multiyear, predictive version of ESPN's real plus-minus pegs Oklahoma City for an expected average of 47 wins, good for sixth in the Western Conference but closer to third in the conference than eighth. Barring the kind of significant injuries that caused the Thunder to miss the postseason in 2014-15, when Durant was limited to 27 games by injuries and Westbrook himself missed 17 more games, Oklahoma City should reach the playoffs.

Of course, after reaching the Western Conference finals three times in the past five seasons, the Thunder have bigger expectations than merely making the playoffs and losing in the opening round. And that's why Presti's long-term work isn't done.

Renegotiating Westbrook's 2016-17 salary up to the max will exhaust most of Oklahoma City's cap space. Assuming Sabonis gets the standard maximum 120 percent of rookie scale, and Price signs a two-year contract for the veteran's minimum, the Thunder will have about $3 million remaining. That could facilitate a trade in which Oklahoma City brings in more salary than it sends out. More likely, however, the Thunder will want to preserve 2017-18 cap space.

Oklahoma City can create cap space next summer

Determining the Thunder's cap situation for the summer of 2017 is trickier because we don't know yet where the salary cap (currently projected at $102 million, revised downward from $107 million) will fall, where Oklahoma City will draft in the first round and whether the Thunder will pick up a team option on center Mitch McGary.

By keeping everyone, Oklahoma City figures to have less cap space than the non-taxpayer mid-level exception. That kind of money won't buy the Thunder much in free agency. But Oklahoma City could try to clear more room, as reports indicated the team was prepared to do this summer if Al Horford showed interest in joining Durant and Westbrook.

If the Thunder turn down McGary's extension and don't guarantee any money to Price, they can likely create enough space to make a max-type offer to a player with less than 10 years of experience by trading Enes Kanter (who will have just two years and less than $36 million remaining on his contract by next summer) and trading Kyle Singler or waiving him using the stretch provision. Notably, free agents in that salary range include Oklahoma City native Blake Griffin, who can opt to become an unrestricted free agent.  Danilo Gallinari, Gordon Hayward and Paul Millsap (who will be eligible for a higher maximum salary by virtue of 10-plus years of experience) are other unrestricted free agents the Thunder might target to upgrade their shooting and shot creation.

Oddly, the desire to maintain flexibility for next summer's free agency means Westbrook's extension almost guarantees that Adams, Oladipo and Roberson won't get extensions to their rookie contracts. ESPN's Zach Lowe recently reported that Oladipo is seeking a maximum extension, which would start at a projected $24 million or so, and Adams surely has a similar target after his breakthrough postseason run.

By holding off on extensions, however, Oklahoma City can utilize smaller cap holds for Adams ($7.9 million), Oladipo ($16.4 million) and Roberson ($5.5 million) before going over the cap to re-sign them to the deals they want. That's the strategy the San Antonio Spurs used with Kawhi Leonard that allowed them to sign LaMarcus Aldridge last summer.

Using up all their cap space and then re-signing all three players would surely push the Thunder deep into the luxury tax, but that's a price worth paying given the urgency of retaining Westbrook beyond this extension.

Westbrook extension buoys Oklahoma City's long-term outlook

As difficult as Durant's departure was, the Thunder can rightly feel some optimism about their long-term future with Westbrook's extension completed. Beyond Durant's new superteam in Golden State, the rest of the West's contenders probably will be in flux the next few seasons.

The Spurs have already lost Tim Duncan to retirement, with Manu Ginobili likely to soon follow and Tony Parker also aging. The  Los Angeles Clippers can see both Griffin and Chris Paul become free agents next summer, and even the up-and-coming Utah Jazz must re-sign Hayward.

There's an opening for Oklahoma City to emerge as the greatest threat to the Warriors in 2017-18, and while that requires everything to go right in free agency and the Thunder's young talent to develop as anticipated, that scenario was only possible with a Westbrook extension.