New form of El Nino may increase Atlantic hurricanes

WASHINGTON -- El Nino may have a split personality.

The warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean has long been known to affect weather around the world, but researchers now say it may come in two forms with different impacts.

The traditional El Nino tends to reduce the number of Atlantic hurricanes. But a form Georgia Tech scientists call El Nino Modoki can lead to more hurricanes than usual in the Atlantic Ocean. Modoki, from Japanese, refers to something that is "similar but different."

The traditional El Nino involves a periodic warming of the water in the eastern part of the tropical Pacific. Indeed, it was first noticed by Peruvian fishermen, who named it after the baby Jesus because it tended to first appear around Christmastime.

In El Nino Modoki, on the other hand, the warming occurs farther to the west, in the central Pacific.

It's not clear why this new form is occurring, said Peter J. Webster, a professor at Georgia Tech's School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences and a co-author of a report on the finding in Friday's edition of the journal Science.

"It may be responding to some (climate) oscillation or it may be in response to global warming," Webster said in a telephone interview.

Regardless of the cause, improved understanding of El Nino and it's cold-water counterpart La Nina could help atmospheric scientists better forecast weather, including the number of Atlantic hurricanes.

Traditionally, La Nina has been associated with more Atlantic hurricanes than normal and El Nino with fewer.

Just last month government forecasters reported signs that an El Nino may be developing in the Pacific.

So which type might it be?

"We spent all last week trying to figure that out," Webster said. 'It looks like it might be a hybrid," with warming starting in the east and them moving west, possibly meaning more hurricanes late in the season.

Co-author Judith A. Curry said she feels that "there is about a 50% chance that we could have one of the Modoki years emerging by late summer."