How to avoid, or at least minimize, holiday flight delays
— -- For those forced to fly during the holidays, December has become the cruelest month. In recent years, winter storms and security hassles have combined with higher and higher percentages of occupied seats to make air travel in the final month of the year a particularly frustrating experience.
Now is the time when many travelers are booking seasonal flights, but for most consumers the emphasis undoubtedly is on fares, not on-time performance. And that's a strategy that may not make sense at this time of year, when a delayed or canceled flight can ruin your holiday and finding space on an alternative airline can be just about impossible. Saving a few dollars on a flight will seem a hollow victory if you spend Christmas, Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, or New Year's Eve in an airport terminal.
According to the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), the passenger load factor for U.S. carriers rose to 77% last December. That's a systemwide average, so it means quite a few holiday flights were packed solid at 100%. And there's early evidence flights will be just as crammed this year, so choosing the right departure is critical.
As I pointed out in a previous column, Arriving on time is a science, selecting the best time to travel can take some research. Unfortunately, December is an inherently dicey time. The good news is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting a warmer than normal winter. However, the head of NOAA's forecast operations still warns, "Even though December, January and February are likely to be milder than average for much of the country, people should still expect some typical winter weather this season."
The best way to determine how airlines will perform this December is to look at the last few Decembers. And the best way to examine airline delay patterns is to download the most recent Air Travel Consumer Report from the DOT. These monthly reports provide a lot of detailed information on airline and airport on-time performance.
Here's a rundown of what the last few Decembers have taught us.
•How airlines stack up
According to the DOT, the nation's airlines performed steadily worse at operating flights that arrived within 15 minutes of schedule during the last four Decembers. Collectively, here's how they ranked:
December 2003 76.0% December 2004 71.6% December 2005 71.0% December 2006 70.8%
Obviously that's a pattern many would like to see disrupted this year. Here's how the carriers themselves performed in December 2006:
Aloha 93.7% Hawaiian 90.1% Delta 80.8% Southwest 76.9% AirTran 75.8% Continental
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