ANALYSIS: What's behind the 33,000 jobs the US lost in September

Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria took a great toll on jobs.

ByABC News
October 6, 2017, 1:04 PM

— -- In September, the U.S. economy lost 33,000 jobs –- the first month of job declines since September 2010, according to a report released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics -- but overall, unemployment fell and wages went up. Here's why.

Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria took a great toll on jobs. In particular, restaurants and bars, many of which were shuttered due to storms, saw jobs drop by 105,000 for the month.

“To quantify, there were 1.47 million people that didn’t show up for work due to the ‘bad weather.’” Those no-shows and temporarily halted businesses made the job losses look much worse," Peter Boockvar, co-chief investment officer for Bookmark Advisors, told ABC News.

In order to even be counted as employed, employees have to be paid by the 12th of the month. If they are not, they fall into that unemployment figure. Because many businesses were shuttered, they didn't meet that payroll deadline, and those jobs were considered "lost."

The unemployment rate, on the other hand, fell by 0.2 percent to 4.2 percent, the lowest rate since February 2001. So why did the unemployment rate improve if there were job losses in September?

To calculate its monthly jobs report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics collects data in two different ways: by surveying businesses to find out how many jobs were lost or gained and by surveying households to find out what happened to the overall rate of unemployment.

When they surveyed businesses, many were temporarily halted due to the storms. When they contacted households, things looked much better. According to leading economists, the job losses do not reflect a weakened economy.

“Labor market remains in good shape, and job losses were due to disruptions from Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria, not underlying weakness in the economy," PNC Chief Economist Gus Faucher told ABC News.

So while the economy lost 33,000 jobs, there is good news in today's report as well. Wages are rising; in September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 12 cents to $26.55.

So what's next?

Faucher said the Federal Reserve “will likely discount this report and wait to see how the labor market works its way through the hurricanes.”

Assuming the labor market continues to strengthen, economists expect the Fed to hike rates again in December.

Related Topics