Year After Obama vs. McCain It's Obama vs. the Economy

Nov. 6, 2009— -- A year after he went one-on-one with John McCain, Barack Obama's now playing for time.

For all that's transpired since his election as president, public opinion has not moved on the big issue, the current economy. The question a year later is how long Obama's got until it goes up, or he goes down – possibly with his party in tow.

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The danger was evident in Tuesday's off-year voting, in which the incumbent Democratic Party lost the New Jersey and Virginia governorships, with 89 and 85 percent of voters, respectively, worried about the economy in the year ahead. Majorities were "very" worried – and they voted Republican by wide margins, 61-34 percent in New Jersey, 77-23 percent in Virginia.

Compare with a year ago: Obama won voters who were very worried about the economy by 22 points nationally and by almost identical margins in New Jersey and Virginia alike.

Other than the direction of the vote, little has changed in basic economic views since the maelstrom blew into town. Economic worry in New Jersey and Virginia this week was almost exactly the same as in the 2008 exit polls there. Nationally, the ABC News Consumer Comfort Index likewise is almost precisely the same today as a year ago – near its worst in 23 years.

There have been partisan shifts – economic confidence is higher among Democrats than it was a year ago, lower among Republicans – but with no net movement. Crucially, it's unchanged among independents, the centerweight of politics. A year ago, Obama won independents by eight points. This week they favored Republicans Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell by 2-1.

Unpacking this to get past the influence of partisanship on economic sentiment, there's a sobering result for the Democrats: Just among independents who are very worried about the economy, McDonnell won by a huge 65 points, Christie by 48. Obama in 2008 finished ahead among very worried independents in both states, but by much smaller margins – 10 points in Virginia, just three in New Jersey. Nationally, he won very worried independents by 15.