The Mother of Parliamentary Messes: A Guide to UK's Political Turmoil

LONDON -- The so-called mother of parliaments is in one mother of a mess. Since U.K. voters opted to leave the European Union in a referendum last week, the country’s political system has been plunged into turmoil, with increasingly bitter leadership battles that could determine the future course for Britain’s two main parties.

It a confusing scene involving an array of characters, but here is what you should know.

Who is in charge?

Prior to last week’s vote, Prime Minister David Cameron had vowed to stay on in the event of a Brexit. But having failed to convince the country to vote “remain” in the referendum, he instead announced a decision to step down. In a bid to ease the transition, he said that he would remain in place for three months while a replacement leader of the Conservative Party was sought.

Who will replace him?

Now this is where it gets messy. Former London Mayor Boris Johnson, who spearheaded the Brexit campaign, was the favorite to take over as Conservative Party leader and, as such, become the likely new British prime minister. But in a shocking decision today, Johnson decided not to run.

In another surprise announcement, Justice Secretary Michael Gove -- a close friend of Johnson and a fellow Brexit campaigner -- announced that he was throwing his hat in the ring, saying Johnson couldn’t "provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead.”

Those remarks followed an email sent accidentally by Gove's wife, Sarah Vine, a newspaper columnist, to a member of the public that subsequently was obtained by the press. In it, she expressed concerns about Johnson's popularity among Conservatives.

Why did Johnson decide not to run?

Perhaps he thought he couldn’t win after all. The Conservative leadership election is first decided by Conservative members of Parliament who vote until only two candidates are left, and a majority of Conservative MPs were supportive of remaining in the E.U., which Johnson passionately campaigned to leave.

The Conservative Party maintains control over the U.K. premiership by virtue of its winning the most recent general election.

Gove’s announcement to run might also have discouraged Johnson, assuming they hadn’t coordinated their statements. Johnson’s father said they hadn’t.

Speaking to the BBC, Stanley Johnson compared Gove to Julius Caesar’s murderers by quoting what is believed to be the Roman general’s last words.

“’Et tu Brute’ is my comment on that,” Stanley Johnson told the BBC, adding that his son hadn’t expected Gove to make his bid. “I think he was probably very surprised by Michael Gove’s sudden move as, indeed, many people are.”

There have also been suggestions that Johnson hadn’t factored on the “Leave” vote to actually prevail, and may be wary of taking over a party in such turmoil.

So the new Conservative Party leader will be Gove, then?

Not necessarily. Apart from Gove, Home Secretary Theresa May, Pensions Secretary Stephen Crabb, former Defense Secretary Liam Fox and former City minister Andrea Leadsom have declared that they will run. Many now consider May, who backed staying in the E.U., the new favorite.

The deadline for declaring a candidacy has passed and the first voting is due to occur Tuesday. Members of the Conservative Party will have the final say after Conservative MPs select the two final candidates.The outcome of the contest to succeed Cameron is due on Sept 9.

With so much turmoil in the ruling party, the opposition must be laughing

Er … no. As bad as things are for the Conservative Party, the fortunes of the Labour Party are no better. Indeed, they could even be worse. Its leader, Jeremy Corbyn, who sits on the political left of the party and has long had to fend off efforts to undermine him from moderates, is accused by many within his own party of underperforming in his efforts to get U.K. voters to bend toward “remain.”

As a result, he faced immediate demands to quit after last Thursday’s vote, but has so far refused to stand down. Instead, he has presided over a fracturing party. On Tuesday, 172 Labour MPs voted in favor of a no-confidence motion against him; just 40 supported him. On Wednesday, Cameron told his counterpart in a House of Commons’ exchange: “For heaven’s sake, man, go.”

It is now likely that he will face a formal challenge to his leadership, with ex-shadow business secretary Angela Eagle – a more moderate Labour figure – likely to be a strong challenger.

So messy party leadership races, but then it will be settled, right?

Unlikely. The fallout of the Brexit vote has been such that many are tipping an early general election, perhaps this fall. The outcome of that potential national ballot might decide which party will lead the country into a Brexit, one that party leaders themselves may not have wanted.

For the losing side, it might trigger another leadership battle. In short, a mess.