The Note: Meet and Greet

— -- NEWS SUMMARY
Today is Republicans and the Future Day.

How do we know?

Well, for one thing, RNC chair Ken Mehlman has an op-ed in the Washington Times about growing the party. LINK

And President Bush meets with African-American leaders at the White House at 1:15 pm ET. (Tomorrow, he meets with the Congressional Black Caucus.)

The White House plans to semi-formally ask Congress to spend an additional $80 billion on the Iraq/Afghanistan wars today. (That means suits but not tuxes . . .)

The Senate is planning for up to nine hours of debate on the nomination of Condoleezza Rice to be Secretary of State. That begins at 9:45 am ET. Rice will likely be confirmed tomorrow. The House takes up suspensions at 2:00 pm ET. There might be sound from Sen. Frist today outside the Senate party policy luncheons.

At 11:00 am ET, the Congressional Budget Office releases its budget and economic outlook, and Democrats respond with a news conference at 2:00 pm ET on Capitol Hill. The numbers won't include current Iraq war costs and make some assumptions about tax cuts, so watch for Democrats to decry the math as not based in reality.

Says Reuters: "The U.S. budget deficit will reach $368 billion this year, the Congressional Budget Office said in new forecasts on Tuesday, a source familiar with the numbers said. The number is worse than the CBO's previous $348 billion forecast for the 2005 fiscal year that began on Oct. 1. Due to a technical quirk, the latest number does not include billions of dollars in expected war costs and analysts said these must be added in to get a true picture of the red ink."

Note warning: do not underestimate the dramas that will unfold when the Bush budget comes out. We so far do not discern a carefully-planned-to-manage-the-pain leak strategy, but maybe it hasn't started yet or maybe we are dumb.

Bush agenda: tensions and opportunities:
David Kirkpatrick and Sheryl Gay Stolberg report exclusively that the Arlington Group, a collection of social conservative political agenda-setters, wrote a "confidential" letter to Karl Rove insisting that the President use his political capital to persuade the Senate to pass a federal marriage amendment to the Constitution.

Excerpts:

"'We couldn't help but notice the contrast between how the president is approaching the difficult issue of Social Security privatization where the public is deeply divided and the marriage issue where public opinion is overwhelmingly on his side,' the letter said. 'Is he prepared to spend significant political capital on privatization but reluctant to devote the same energy to preserving traditional marriage? If so it would create outrage with countless voters who stood with him just a few weeks ago, including an unprecedented number of African-Americans, Latinos and Catholics who broke with tradition and supported the president solely because of this issue.'" LINK

"'When the administration adopts a defeatist attitude on an issue that is at the top of our agenda, it becomes impossible for us to unite our movement on an issue such as Social Security privatization where there are already deep misgivings.'"

"The letter also expressed alarm at recent comments President Bush made to The Washington Post, including his statement that "nothing will happen" on the marriage amendment for now because many senators did not see the need for it.'"

"'We trust that you can imagine our deep disappointment at the defeatist position President Bush demonstrated' in the interview, the group wrote. 'He even declined to answer a simple question about whether he would use his bully pulpit to overcome this Senate foot-dragging.'"

We mean no disrespect when we say, blah blah blah.

David Brooks urges President Bush to embrace "Social Mobility" at SOTU. "In his State of the Union address, President Bush is no doubt going to talk about his vision of an ownership society. But homeownership or pension ownership is only part of a larger story. The larger story is the one Lincoln defined over a century ago, the idea that this nation should provide an open field and a fair chance so that all can compete in the race of life." LINK

AP previews the President's meeting on Wednesday with the Congressional Black Caucus. LINK

Here's what Rep. Mel Watt (D-NC), chairman of the CBC, said in a statement about tomorrow's meeting: ""As we begin a new year and a new Congressional session, the Agenda of the Congressional Black Caucus for the 109th Congress will focus on closing and eliminating the disparities that continue to exist in our society. We will lay out a succinct agenda for the President which addresses the actual disparities that exist today in health care, education, economic opportunity, justice, retirement security and foreign policy. We will also offer specific proposals that we can and will support to address the disparities."

"I believe that it is critically important that we work together with the President on behalf of the American people. When we disagree with the President, we will stand up and do so. However, it is my hope that we will find common ground that will benefit all Americans. We look forward to this being a positive meeting and to having future meetings with President Bush."

Three reporters for the New York Times detail how the shaky dollar is contributing to tensions with Europe and the rest of the world. LINK

(And of course, since one of the three reporters is David Sanger, there is a mention of North Korea -- although you have to read near the end to see it . . . )

In light of warnings by presidential advisers that the inaugural speech shouldn't be taken too literally, the Washington Post's E.J. Dionne coins the phrase "Freedom Shuffle" for President Bush's outlook on the idea of spreading democracy. LINK

Paul Krugman wonders whether the next Fed Chair will be a Bush "yes man" or possess credibility with the markets. LINK

Abortion politics:
How breathless should we be about Patrick D. (Non O'Gilfoil) Healy's article on Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's soothing remarks about abortion yesterday in Albany?

Well, Neera Tanden, Sen. Clinton's L.D., told Healy the focus of the speech "was to make sure that she still communicated that she was pro-choice -- she doesn't want to undermine that -- but she also thinks we can have some common ground among all sides and make abortion rare." And Tony Perkins certainly dismissed it as, essentially, pandering.

If everyone expects Clinton to "moderate" her views, will everything she says be interpreted as an act of deliberate viewpoint moderation. Perhaps that's not the fairest way to judge a politician -- even/especially Hillary Clinton.

If the Times plans to front every story in which the Senator restates her past centrist-y views on things ("justified" by "context"), then Tim Russert is going to have to get up many amornin' to have Katie ask him about it. And the Drudge siren will get worn out.

The meat of what Sen. Clinton said is par the course for pro-choice centrists and even for liberal Democrats these days. And her record, which includes support for parental notification (with judicial bypass) in some circumstances, and support for a partial birth ban if it included a health exception, reflects her remarks.

"'We can all recognize that abortion in many ways represents a sad, even tragic choice to many, many women,' Mrs. Clinton told the annual conference of the Family Planning Advocates of New York State. 'The fact is that the best way to reduce the number of abortions is to reduce the number of unwanted pregnancies in the first place.'"

"She called on abortion rights advocates and anti-abortion campaigners to form a broad alliance to support sexual education -- including abstinence counseling -- family planning, and morning-after emergency contraception for victims of sexual assault as ways to reduce unintended pregnancies," Healy writes.

"'There is an opportunity for people of good faith to find common ground in this debate -- we should be able to agree that we want every child born in this country to be wanted, cherished and loved,' Mrs. Clinton said."

Concludes Healy: "Mrs. Clinton's remarks were generally well received, though the audience was silent during most of her overtures to anti-abortion groups. Afterward, leaders of those groups were skeptical, given Mrs. Clinton's outspoken support for abortion rights over the years."

A Sister Soulja moment, this was not.

(The AP reports on the speech with a little less breathlessness. LINK)

In any event, we eagerly await Mandy Grunwald's first ad on abortion and immigration!

The Washington Post's David Snyder looks at the crowds who gathered on the Mall yesterday to protest the anniversary of Roe v. Wade, and the comments by President Bush, who phoned the gathering and talked about the "culture of life," saying that it comes not only from the changing of laws. LINK

As does the Los Angeles Times' Johanna Neuman. LINK

Michael Fletcher of the Washington Post looks a little more closely at the President's remarks. LINK

Republicans and conservatives:
David Kirkpatrick calendar alert: From Feb. 3 to Feb. 5, Baltimore, MD will host the annual conservative member retreat sponsored by the House Republican Study Conference and Rep. Mike Pence of Indiana, its chairman. Confirmed speakers include Chuck Colson, Dick Armey, Phil Gramm and Newt Gingrich.

Staffing up: here's the rest of Ken Mehlman's RNC team, which will be announced today. Mike DuHaime, a young organizing superstar from New Jersey and formerly Northeast Regional Field Director for BC04 (just look at Bush's vote increases in that region) will be political director, replacing Blaise Hazelwood, who now directs campaigns at the NRSC.

Kelley McCullough, formerly a top deputy to Mehlman at BC04 and Karl Rove at the White House, will serve as Mehlman's chief of staff.

Matthew Dowd returns to the RNC as a senior adviser.

Brian Jones, an astute and friendly veteran of politics, research, polling and PR, will serve as communications director.

Adrian Gray assumes the position of director of strategic information. He's a veteran of the BC04 field team as well as a former administration official.

Michael Turk gets to serve as eCampaign director, similar to his position at BC04. And Mina Nguyen, who worked with coalitions at BC04, will be government affairs director.

Mehlman told Z. Hallow that the GOP will start year-round voter drives. LINK

The new chair heads to Texas tomorrow to participate in a leadership forum hosted by George H.W. Bush. Also participating: Mary Beth Cahill. LINK

Social Security:
New idea reportedly being discussed by the Administration: progressive indexing by way of means testing. The richer you are, the quicker your benefits would be indexed to inflation. Most middle class and working class Social Security beneficiaries would see at least most of their income indexed to wage growth for the foreseeable future.

The New York Times' Edmund Andrews and Richard Stevenson thusly report: "People who have been briefed on White House discussions said the administration was striving to retain as much flexibility as possible both on legislative tactics and policy details. Deliberations are under way within the White House and between the White House and Republican leaders in Congress over how to proceed, they said, but there is no sense of panic or even surprise within the administration." LINK

"Shifting from wage indexing to price indexing would in itself come close to eliminating the projected shortfall. But such a change would mean Social Security would steadily replace less and less of a person's pre-retirement income. The new approach would help protect people at the lowest rungs of the income scale. But it would not save nearly as much money. By one estimate, it would close about two-thirds of the projected shortfall."

Jackie Calmes and John D. McKinnon write in the Wall Street Journal that the White House "is enlisting former Treasury Department officials to sell the president's initiatives on Social Security and taxes -- a sign of the agenda's importance and the administration's difficulty in recruiting for a demoralized department."

"Mark Weinberger, Treasury's top tax-policy official when Mr. Bush won passage of his signature income-tax cuts, may become deputy secretary charged with leading the lobbying for Social Security and tax overhaul, according to individuals close to the personnel discussions. Another possible returnee to government service is Timothy Adams, who was chief of staff for former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill and, briefly, for his successor, John Snow. More recently, Mr. Adams was policy director for the Bush re-election campaign."

"A knowledgeable Republican jokingly likened the White House's overture to the veterans to 'The Blues Brothers,' the 1980 comedy film about former band members reuniting. More seriously, it reflects an administration struggling to restore the Treasury Department's talent and prestige. The department is widely perceived as irrelevant in an administration that controls decision-making at the White House, and embarrassed first by the ouster of Mr. O'Neill and then by a long delay in extending Mr. Snow's tenure."

Steve Moore wants the White House to get with the program and specifies how he thinks Social Security reform should be sold. LINK

AP looks at the poll released Monday by the AARP supporting its opposition to President Bush's plan to overhaul Social Security, the wording and execution of which the RNC was not impressed. LINK

USA Today's William Welch takes a closer look at AARP's opposition efforts. LINK

USA Today's Dennis Cauchon takes a good look at how longer retirements and life expectancies are affecting the pool of Social Security benefits available, and sizes up the arguments that accompany the possibility of raising the retirement age. LINK

Congress:
Senate Democrats may resort more frequently to procedural delays in order to more closely scrutinize nominees and policies, the New York Times reports. LINK

AP forecasts a debate over Rice designed to allow Senate Democrats to get their punches in on the President's Iraq policy. LINK

The Washington Post's Chuck Babington looks at the differing priorities among Republicans in the Senate. For Republicans: Social Security, taxes, medical liability, and oil exploration are on the front burner, while immigration laws, abortion, and same-sex marriage have moved to the back. For Democrats: importing prescription drugs, creating national standards for elections, restoring overtime pay, adding military troops, and increasing benefits for veterans and college students. LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Richard Simon, however, focuses almost exclusively on congressional Republicans pushing for a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage. LINK

And the Boston Globe's Rick Klein leads with Democrats' legislative priorities. LINK

David Rogers in the Wall Street Journal on the imminent passage of class action reform and what it says about Democratic and Republican strategies:

"A key question now is how much momentum a victory on class-action lawsuits might provide for other business-backed efforts to enact broader tort reform. Following on Republican gains in November's elections, business is pressing for legislation to expedite the settlement of multibillion-dollar asbestos claims and to reduce the size and impact of medical malpractice suits. Mindful of these fights ahead, Democrats are more willing to retreat given the compromises reached on class action and the support in their own ranks for the bill. While consumer and labor groups remain strongly opposed to core provisions, Senate Democrats show little desire to delay the legislation any longer. House Republicans are more willing to accept whatever compromise emerges from the Senate, and President Bush is widely expected to sign the measure."

Iraq:
Read Greg Jaffe on the front page of the Wall Street Journal: vets spending is squeezing military spending, and the problem is likely to get worse.

A positive sign? Sunni leaders say they won't participate in the vote but will demand a place at the table when a constitution is written. LINK

ABC News' Brian Hartman reports that Lt. Gen. James Lovelace, the army's chief of operations, said yesterday that the plan is keep at least 120,000 troops in Iraq until 2006. More, if needed. And less, if possible.

The New York Times' Eric Schmitt writes that the comments were "yet another indicator of how the Iraqi training program is lagging woefully behind original Pentagon estimates." LINK

The Washington Post's Anthony Shadid explains the political parties on the ballot in Iraq and the nature of political Islam. LINK

As Rep. Martin Meehan details his exit strategy at the Brookings Institute today . . .

. . . Henry Kissinger and George Shultz pen a Washington Post op-ed rejecting the clamoring for such a strategy in Iraq, arguing that the outcome of the elections and the conditions of the country are more important than an end date. LINK

The Boston Globe's Thanassis Cambanis and Anne Barnard look at the logistical difficulties in trying to hold an election when so many people, from voters to election workers, are living with threats, fear, and intimidation. LINK

It's unclear where this story goes: another disclosure in the Samir Vincent-Jack Kemp relationship. LINK

National security:
"Defense Department officials acknowledged yesterday that the Pentagon has created new clandestine teams to gain better human intelligence for military commanders but emphasized that the program was developed with the cooperation of the Central Intelligence Agency, not to bypass it," report the Washington Post's Josh White and Bart Gellman. LINK

DNC chair's race:
Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina, a former chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, has endorsed Donnie Fowler, along with former Sen. Fritz Hollings.

If the DNC changes the rules and the only people who are allowed to vote in the chair race are from the Palmetto State, our money is on Fowler.

But what if these people find out he lives closer to Chris Lehane and Postrio than he does to Nu Wexler and the parking lot where the Clyburn fish fry is held?

2006:
RFK Jr: Sez No to NY AG: LINK

Roll Call's Erin Billings and Josh Kurtz report that Maryland Democrats are trying to persuade Minority Whip Steny Hoyer to run for governor.

2008:
The New York Times' Randy Archibold got permission (apparently) to write about Gov. Pataki's Monday chalk talk to the "influential" Monday Meeting of Gotham conservative activists. LINK

Although Pataki has surely made no decisions about 2006 or 2008, his lengthy slide show presentation -- obviously intended to sure up his fiscal disciplone bona fides -- sure seemed like a test-run of what some call a "national" message.

Sen. Clinton's former finance director gets a day in court. LINK

The Boston Globe's Scott Greenberger previews the changes to welfare Gov. Mitt Romney is expected to propose this week, which would greatly increase the number of welfare recipients who have to work, increase the number of hours some of them must work, and cap at five years the lifetime limit to receive welfare benefits. "The Romney plan, which is stricter than the recommendations of an advisory panel given in November, is likely to enhance the conservative bona fides of the Republican governor, who is widely thought to be contemplating a run for the White House," Greenberger writes. LINK

Politics:
Farewell Mr. Ashcroft. LINK

Media:
Tom Oliphant writes a lovely farewell to "Nyhan of The Globe." LINK

Who is powerful in Texas? (Besides Evan Smith, that is . . . )

See LINK, LINK, LINK, LINK and LINK and LINK