Biden-backed Israel-Hamas cease-fire proposal faces strong headwinds: ANALYSIS

Securing Hamas buy-in and keeping Israel’s support a challenge, officials say.

May 31, 2024, 7:29 PM

In a White House address, President Joe Biden on Friday said Israel's offensive in Gaza had degraded Hamas to the point that it could no longer carry out another sweeping terror attack on Israel and declared it was time to set a course for enduring peace by reaching a cease-fire deal.

"It's time for this war to end, for the day after to begin," Biden said, before outlining the contours of a three-phase plan he said was a "comprehensive new proposal" crafted by Israel.

But later in the same speech, Biden seemed to acknowledge that even though Israel had authored the plan, its leadership's commitment to its terms was not a forgone conclusion.

"I know there are those in Israel who will not agree with this plan and will call for the war to continue indefinitely. Some– some are even in the government coalition," he said. "Well, I've urged the nation of Israel to stand behind this deal despite whatever pressure comes."

PHOTO: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a wreath-laying ceremony marking Holocaust Remembrance Day for the six million Jews killed in World War II, at the Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial in Jerusalem on May 6, 2024.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a wreath-laying ceremony marking Holocaust Remembrance Day for the six million Jews killed in World War II, at the Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial in Jerusalem on May 6, 2024.
Amir Cohen/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

The president also called on Hamas to accept the proposal.

"Hamas says it wants a cease-fire. This deal is an opportunity to prove whether they really mean it," he said. "Hamas needs to take the deal."

Sensitive diplomatic negotiations typically unfold in secrecy, but administration officials say the president was motivated to update Americans about U.S. efforts to end the conflict, which has evolved into a significant political liability for Biden as he seeks reelection.

After Biden's speech, Hamas reacted positively, issuing a statement saying the group remained ready to "deal positively and constructively with any proposal based on a permanent ceasefire, full withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, reconstruction, the return of the displaced to all their places of residence, and the completion of a serious prisoner exchange deal."

But Hamas has not yet issued a direct reaction to the latest proposal itself, which was transmitted to the group on Thursday.

Throughout months of stop-and-start talks, some U.S. officials have grown increasingly skeptical that Hamas would agree to any agreement that allows for all living hostages to go free without ensuring the group can retain its hold over Gaza -- a situation both the Biden administration and Israel say is untenable.

Earlier in the week, Hamas also announced to mediators attempting to broker a cease-fire deal that it would not even return to the negotiating table until Israel completely halted its military campaign.

PHOTO: An Israeli armored personnel carrier (APC) operates, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, near Israel's border with Gaza in southern Israel, May 29, 2024.
An Israeli armored personnel carrier (APC) operates, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, near Israel's border with Gaza in southern Israel, May 29, 2024.
Ronen Zvulun/Reuters

Biden said the first phase of the proposal he announced Friday would last for six weeks and include a "complete cease-fire;" the withdrawal of Israeli forces "from all populated areas of Gaza;" the release of "a number of hostages," including women, the elderly, and the wounded, and, in exchange, the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.

In the second phase, he noted that if "Hamas lives up to its commitments," the temporary cease-fire would become a "cessation of hostilities permanently," quoting from the Israeli proposal.

Senior Biden administration officials have acknowledged that a deal is not on the immediate horizon, but some have expressed optimism that the new proposal could spark new momentum.

"What's on the table now is very close to the deal Hamas said they would take," one official said.

But throughout the negotiations, Hamas has repeatedly proven to be unreliable -- shifting its demands and often backtracking right when all parties seemed to be on the cusp of a deal, according to sources familiar with the matter.

"The president's fundamental failing is treating Hamas and Hezbollah as legitimate political actors instead of the brutal Iran-backed terrorist organizations that they are," said Richard Goldberg, former Director for Countering Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction for the White House National Security Council and a senior adviser at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy.

PHOTO: President Joe Biden announces a proposed ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza while delivering remarks at the White House in Washington, DC, May 31, 2024.
President Joe Biden announces a proposed ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza while delivering remarks at the White House in Washington, DC, May 31, 2024.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Earlier in May, Hamas rejected a similar proposal that Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other top officials in the Biden administration cast as a best and final offer, citing concerns that it didn't go far enough to ensure a lasting end to the conflict.

Biden admitted the parameters of the current offer are also undefined, saying there are a "number of details" that would need to be negotiated after the first phase of the deal was implemented.

And despite their status as close allies, even the U.S. and Israel have also struggled to reach a common vision for the future of Gaza, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains staunch in his opposition to a Palestinian state and adamant that Israel must retain security control of the Gaza strip after the war.

ABC News' Fritz Farrow, Michelle Stoddart and Ellie Kaufman contributed to this report.