538 Follow the latest 538 news, videos, and analysis from ABC News.
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Nov 19, 2024, 5:10 PM
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What the gender gap tells us about Trump's win
Donald Trump's appeals to young men and men of color in the 2024 election campaign may have paid off.Nov 19, 2024, 5:10 PM
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Nov 18, 2024, 3:29 PM
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Democrats aren't alone — incumbent parties have lost elections all around the world
Democrats were just one of the many incumbent parties around the globe that lost ground in 2024 elections.Nov 18, 2024, 3:29 PM
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Nov 15, 2024, 10:09 AM
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Texas may finally pass school choice in 2025
A school-voucher-like program could pass in Texas after the 2024 election.Nov 15, 2024, 10:09 AM
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Nov 14, 2024, 4:07 PM
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Why voters chose Trump
Despite Donald Trump's unpopularity, he won on immigration, the economy and leadership.Nov 14, 2024, 4:07 PM
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Nov 13, 2024, 4:23 PM
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Republicans won the House. Now comes the hard part.
As of Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. Eastern, ABC News is reporting that Republicans have won at least 218 seats in the next House and Democrats have won at least 208.Nov 13, 2024, 4:23 PM
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Nov 11, 2024, 3:10 PM
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How Democrats won Senate seats in states that Trump carried
The 2024 election had at least three split-ticket results, though presidential and Senate votes still closely aligned.Nov 11, 2024, 3:10 PM
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Nov 8, 2024, 4:17 PM
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2024 polls were accurate but still underestimated Trump
How accurate were polls of the 2024 election?Nov 8, 2024, 4:17 PM
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Nov 6, 2024, 9:47 AM
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Republicans won the Senate
How big will the Republicans' U.S. Senate majority be?Nov 6, 2024, 9:47 AM
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Nov 5, 2024, 11:21 AM
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What would happen if Harris and Trump tie in the Electoral College?
The race would go to Congress, where Republicans would likely have an advantage.Nov 5, 2024, 11:21 AM
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Nov 4, 2024, 4:24 PM
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49 ballot measures to watch in the 2024 election
Ballot measures to watch in the 2024 election related to abortion, voting, drugs, workers' rights, and more.Nov 4, 2024, 4:24 PM
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Nov 1, 2024, 1:48 PM
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When will we know 2024 election results?
When will we know who won the 2024 presidential election? 538 shows you when to expect results in all 50 states.Nov 1, 2024, 1:48 PM
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Oct 31, 2024, 2:50 PM
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The 10 state legislative chambers that could flip in 2024
Alaska, Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are hosting competitive races for state legislative chambers in 2024.Oct 31, 2024, 2:50 PM
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Oct 29, 2024, 4:13 PM
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The 2024 election could hinge on Pennsylvania
538's final deep dive into swing states in the 2024 election focusing on Pennslyvania voters.Oct 29, 2024, 4:13 PM
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Oct 30, 2024, 1:20 PM
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Trump and Harris are both a normal polling error away from a blowout
How accurate will the polls of the 2024 presidential election be?Oct 30, 2024, 1:20 PM
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Oct 18, 2024, 4:00 PM
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Trump has gained in 538's forecast, but the election is still a toss-up
538's 2024 presidential election forecast shows a very close, toss-up race, with Trump taking a small lead.Oct 18, 2024, 4:00 PM
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Oct 28, 2024, 4:58 PM
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2024 has fewer polls, but they are higher quality
How polling in 2024 compares with other recent election cycles.Oct 28, 2024, 4:58 PM
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Oct 28, 2024, 2:24 PM
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In 2024, abortion rights initiatives are on the ballot in 10 states
There are 10 states with abortion rights initiatives in the 2024 election.Oct 28, 2024, 2:24 PM
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Oct 25, 2024, 1:10 PM
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Which states have the most — and least — accurate polls?
Polling is more accurate in swing states, especially in the Sun Belt.Oct 25, 2024, 1:10 PM
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Oct 24, 2024, 5:25 PM
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Can Democrats win Arizona again in 2024?
538's sixth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states of the 2024 election focuses on Arizona.Oct 24, 2024, 5:25 PM
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Jul 19, 2024, 8:00 AM
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This Florida county is struggling with inflation and housing costs. Voters don't trust either party to fix it.
The 2024 presidential election in Duval County, Florida, could be decided by inflation and housing costs.Jul 19, 2024, 8:00 AM
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May 8, 2024, 4:39 PM
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Kristi Noem blamed shooting her dog on the realities of rural life. Experts say that doesn’t add up.
As a rural dog owner, I know Kristi Noem's story is far from normal.May 8, 2024, 4:39 PM
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Oct 23, 2024, 4:23 PM
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Republicans have a good shot at flipping the Senate
What 538's 2024 Senate election forecast says.Oct 23, 2024, 4:23 PM
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Oct 17, 2024, 11:25 AM
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Wisconsin decided the 2020 election. How will it vote in 2024?
Our fifth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.Oct 17, 2024, 11:25 AM
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Oct 22, 2024, 3:29 PM
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Republican opposition could slow the push toward electric vehicles
Policies to boost EVs are still popular, but losing support.Oct 22, 2024, 3:29 PM
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Oct 16, 2024, 1:00 PM
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The 2024 election could have a big impact on education policy
How education is impacting the 2024 election and what school choice ballot measures are on the ballot.Oct 16, 2024, 1:00 PM
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Oct 15, 2024, 11:49 AM
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How Hurricanes Helene and Milton could affect the 2024 election
Hurricanes Helene and Milton may not change many voters' minds, but they could dampen turnout in the hardest-hit areas.Oct 15, 2024, 11:49 AM
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Oct 14, 2024, 4:04 PM
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How Georgia could swing back to the GOP in 2024
538 does its fourth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven swing states with Georgia, which could swing back to the GOP in 2024.Oct 14, 2024, 4:04 PM
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Oct 11, 2024, 3:54 PM
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3 states could vote to mandate paid sick days
Paid sick leave is on the ballot in Alaska, Nebraska, and Missouri in the 2024 election.Oct 11, 2024, 3:54 PM
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Oct 10, 2024, 1:08 PM
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Trump is holding more campaign events than Harris
Campaign visits probably won't make a difference in the 2024 presidential election.Oct 10, 2024, 1:08 PM
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Oct 9, 2024, 1:03 PM
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How redistricting could play a key role in the fight to control the House in 2024
Five states redrew their district lines and the changes could impact who wins the House in the 2024 election.Oct 9, 2024, 1:03 PM
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Oct 8, 2024, 7:50 PM
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How 538's 2024 House election forecast works
The methodology of 538's 2024 House of Representatives forecast model.Oct 8, 2024, 7:50 PM
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Oct 8, 2024, 7:51 PM
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The 2024 race to control the House couldn't be tighter
Introducing 538's forecast for U.S. House of Representatives races in 2024.Oct 8, 2024, 7:51 PM
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Oct 7, 2024, 1:10 PM
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What Americans think about the war in Gaza, a year after the Oct. 7 attacks
A year after October 7, 2023, 538 looks at polls on how Americans feel about Israel, Palestine and conflict in the Middle East.Oct 7, 2024, 1:10 PM
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Oct 4, 2024, 2:50 PM
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Which way are key demographic groups leaning in the 2024 election?
Polling averages of Kamala Harris's and Donald Trump's support among Black, Hispanic, white, young, old, male, female, college-educated and non-college-educated voters.Oct 4, 2024, 2:50 PM
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Oct 3, 2024, 2:30 PM
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Black and Arab American voters could swing Michigan's 2024 election
538 does its third deep dive into polling and other data in the seven swing states with Michigan, which is dependent on Black and Arab American voters.Oct 3, 2024, 2:30 PM
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Oct 2, 2024, 1:44 PM
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What early polls say about who won the VP debate
Americans are split over whether Sen. JD Vance or Gov. Tim Walz won Tuesday's vice presidential debate.Oct 2, 2024, 1:44 PM
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Oct 1, 2024, 10:57 AM
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Why VP debates aren't all that important
Historically, VP debates haven't really moved the polls.Oct 1, 2024, 10:57 AM
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Sep 17, 2024, 12:03 PM
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Pro-Israel groups spent big to oust two Squad members in primaries
Pro-Israel groups focused their spending on defeating two members of the Squad, and had a fairly strong showing in Democratic primary endorsements.Sep 17, 2024, 12:03 PM
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Sep 18, 2024, 1:03 PM
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Progressive organizations were forced to play defense in the 2024 primaries
Progressive candidates won most of the open primary races they ran in for U.S. Senate, House and governor in 2024.Sep 18, 2024, 1:03 PM
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Sep 27, 2024, 2:17 PM
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Why Nevada is so close in 2024
538's second deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states in the 2024 presidential election.Sep 27, 2024, 2:17 PM
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