538 Follow the latest 538 news, videos, and analysis from ABC News.
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Jul 17, 2024, 10:55 AM
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Many Haley voters won't back Trump. They weren't going to anyway.
Nikki Haley has endorsed Donald Trump, but which Haley primary voters will break with the Republican Party in the 2024 general election?Jul 17, 2024, 10:55 AM
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Jul 1, 2024, 1:59 PM
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What Trump's VP pick could mean for 2028
Why Trump's vice presidential pick might not matter as much as you think.Jul 1, 2024, 1:59 PM
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Jul 12, 2024, 10:30 AM
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Americans were worried about Biden's age long before the debate
Polls say Americans think Joe Biden is too old to be president.Jul 12, 2024, 10:30 AM
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Jul 11, 2024, 4:53 PM
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4 reasons to beware of post-debate polling takes
This soon after the debate, with relatively little robust polling, there are early indications that President Joe Biden has lost ground, but it's hard to say much more.Jul 11, 2024, 4:53 PM
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Jul 10, 2024, 3:09 PM
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What the Democrats doubting Biden have in common
At first, there may not seem to be a pattern in who is calling on Biden to step down and who's supporting him. But a closer look reveals there are some similarities.Jul 10, 2024, 3:09 PM
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Jul 9, 2024, 5:34 PM
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Why 538's forecast hasn't moved much post-debate
Why 538's 2024 presidential election forecast model is still a toss-up after the debate.Jul 9, 2024, 5:34 PM
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Jul 8, 2024, 10:26 AM
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Why the Supreme Court tends to release unpopular decisions late in its term
The Supreme Court tends to release unpopular opinions later in its term.Jul 8, 2024, 10:26 AM
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Jul 3, 2024, 12:02 PM
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Voters are mad as hell in the UK and France
How the United Kingdom and France elections work and who will win.Jul 3, 2024, 12:02 PM
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Jul 2, 2024, 2:49 PM
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What the polls say after the first presidential debate
Trump looks to have gained at least some ground, but how much the polls end up moving remains to be seen.Jul 2, 2024, 2:49 PM
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Jun 28, 2024, 3:51 PM
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Who won the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?
Poll results from after the first 2024 presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.Jun 28, 2024, 3:51 PM
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Jun 27, 2024, 7:09 AM
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Who will win the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?
A new 538/Ipsos poll conducted before the debate shows where Biden and Trump stand.Jun 27, 2024, 7:09 AM
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Jun 27, 2024, 11:34 PM
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Biden's biggest weakness -- his age -- on full display at debate: ANALYSIS
From the earliest moments of the night, President Joe Biden's biggest political weakness -- his age and perceived frailty -- became a clear liability on the debate stage.Jun 27, 2024, 11:34 PM
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Jun 26, 2024, 11:19 AM
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Why the Biden-Trump debate matters more than you think
Will the June 27 presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden matter in the polls?Jun 26, 2024, 11:19 AM
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Jun 24, 2024, 5:22 PM
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15 elections to watch in New York, Colorado, Utah and South Carolina
Tuesday's elections include notable U.S. House primary races in New York, Colorado and Utah.Jun 24, 2024, 5:22 PM
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Jun 20, 2024, 2:28 PM
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Why RFK Jr. didn't qualify for the first presidential debate
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. came up short of qualifying for the first general election debate.Jun 20, 2024, 2:28 PM
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Jun 18, 2024, 4:00 PM
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It's not just vibes. Americans' perception of the economy has completely changed.
Why Americans feel bad about the economy even though economic data is strong.Jun 18, 2024, 4:00 PM
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Jun 14, 2024, 1:40 PM
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A Supreme Court abortion ruling that voters will be happy about
538's polling column examines Americans' opinion on access to the abortion medication mifepristone, the economy and threats to democracy, Pride month and polling itself.Jun 14, 2024, 1:40 PM
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Jun 17, 2024, 4:27 PM
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7 primaries to watch in Virginia and Oklahoma
Tuesday's elections include notable U.S. House primary races in Virginia and Oklahoma.Jun 17, 2024, 4:27 PM
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Jun 12, 2024, 2:44 PM
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Why Hunter Biden's guilty verdict probably won't affect the 2024 election
It's not clear that voters will fault the president for his son's wrongdoing.Jun 12, 2024, 2:44 PM
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Jun 11, 2024, 8:05 AM
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Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast
Announcing 538's 2024 presidential election forecast model.Jun 11, 2024, 8:05 AM
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Jun 7, 2024, 1:42 PM
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Abortion-rights ballot measures are leading in the polls
What the polls say about 2024 abortion-rights ballot measures in Florida, Arizona, Nevada and South Dakota.Jun 7, 2024, 1:42 PM
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Jun 4, 2024, 12:18 PM
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Trump’s conviction may be hurting him — but it’s early
National polling conducted immediately after Trump's guilty verdict reflects a slight swing toward Biden.Jun 4, 2024, 12:18 PM
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May 29, 2024, 2:49 PM
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Republicans are ramping up election fraud claims ahead of November
Republicans continue to embrace election denialism by pushing efforts to ban noncitizens from voting (which is already illegal).May 29, 2024, 2:49 PM
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May 28, 2024, 4:29 PM
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How will Trump's hush money trial impact the 2024 election?
Will the outcome of Trump's hush money trial matter to voters in November?May 28, 2024, 4:29 PM
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May 23, 2024, 5:19 PM
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Senate Democrats are polling well. That could help Biden.
Senate Democrats are polling better than President Joe Biden. What does that mean for 2024?May 23, 2024, 5:19 PM
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May 22, 2024, 12:08 PM
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It doesn’t matter which candidate you’d rather have a beer with
In the third episode of our mini-series "Campaign Throwback," we explore whether Americans really choose their presidents based on personal relatability.May 22, 2024, 12:08 PM
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May 20, 2024, 3:21 PM
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6 elections to watch in Georgia, Oregon and Idaho
538 previews the May 21 primaries in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky.May 20, 2024, 3:21 PM
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May 17, 2024, 3:31 PM
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Democracy is a top concern for many voters. We asked them why.
538 partnered with PerryUndem to conduct focus groups with undecided swing-state voters and delve deeper into how they're thinking about the state of our democracy.May 17, 2024, 3:31 PM
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May 15, 2024, 2:27 PM
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Biden's path to winning the Electoral College runs through the Midwest
Polls suggest Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will be pivotal states for Biden's chances of winning the Electoral College.May 15, 2024, 2:27 PM
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May 15, 2024, 9:27 AM
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Are 'soccer moms' actually swing voters?
In the second episode of our miniseries "Campaign Throwback," we get to the bottom of how suburban women became a political obsession.May 15, 2024, 9:27 AM
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May 13, 2024, 2:49 PM
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10 primaries to watch in Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia
538 breaks down the key primaries in Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia.May 13, 2024, 2:49 PM
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May 8, 2024, 4:39 PM
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Kristi Noem blamed shooting her dog on the realities of rural life. Experts say that doesn’t add up.
As a rural dog owner, I know Kristi Noem's story is far from normal.May 8, 2024, 4:39 PM
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May 6, 2024, 4:10 PM
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5 primaries to watch in Indiana
In the Indiana primaries, it's the establishment GOP versus the tea party in multiple House seats.May 6, 2024, 4:10 PM
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May 3, 2024, 2:36 PM
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Young people disapprove of Biden’s Israel policy. It may not mean much for November.
Despite campus protests over Israel's war with Hamas, polls find that young people rank other issues, like the economy, as much more important to their vote in November.May 3, 2024, 2:36 PM
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Mar 25, 2024, 4:26 PM
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House members seem to really hate their jobs
U.S. representatives are increasingly cutting their congressional careers off early.Mar 25, 2024, 4:26 PM
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Apr 30, 2024, 10:48 AM
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Voters don't like Biden's economy — but why?
Voters aren't happy with Biden's handling of the economy, but can't really explain why.Apr 30, 2024, 10:48 AM
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May 1, 2024, 2:15 PM
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The 8 types of Democrats and Republicans in the House
A 538 analysis of the unspoken caucuses in the U.S. House of Representatives, based on voting data from the 118th Congress.May 1, 2024, 2:15 PM
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May 2, 2024, 2:43 PM
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How Trump's trial is (not) changing the polls
Polls on Donald Trump's hush money trial, student protests over the war in Gaza, and marijuana legalization.May 2, 2024, 2:43 PM
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Apr 26, 2024, 12:06 PM
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Democratic divisions over Israel aren't guaranteed to sink The Squad
Will Democrats' divisions on Israel boost The Squad's primary challengers?Apr 26, 2024, 12:06 PM
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Apr 25, 2024, 10:01 AM
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Trump leads in swing-state polls and is tied with Biden nationally
How 538’s new 2024 presidential general election polling averages work.Apr 25, 2024, 10:01 AM
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