Consumer Confidence Stays Flat

Oct. 3, 2006 — -- Despite falling gas prices and a strong stock market, consumer confidence held essentially steady this week. One factor: strong partisanship five weeks before Election Day.

The latest ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -13 on its scale of +100 to -100, virtually unchanged from last week and about at its average so far this year, -12.

While gas prices continue to drop and the stock market is reaching record highs, other economic reports are less positive, including a cooling housing market and slower income growth. The mixed data open the door to partisanship. The index is +29 among Republicans, but -20 among independents and -37 among Democrats. That 66-point gap between the two major parties is more than double the average gap since 1990.

The index is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, the buying climate and their personal finances. This week 40 percent say the economy's in good shape, matching the long-term average; and 35 percent call it a good time to buy things, compared with an average 38 percent.

More, 55 percent, say their own finances are in good shape, but that's down six points in the last two months. While ratings are up five points among Republicans, they're down six points among Democrats and 13 points among independents.

TREND -- The index has ranged this year from a high of -7 in March and April to a low of -19 in May and late August. Its all-time high was +38 in January 2000; its record low, -50 in February 1992. As noted, it's averaged -12 so far this year. Its average since December 1985 is -9.

GROUPS -- As usual, the index is higher in better-off groups. It's +39 among higher-income Americans while -62 among those with the lowest incomes, +5 among college graduates while -43 among those who haven't finished high school, -8 among whites but -45 among blacks and -2 among men while -23 among women.

At -3, the index is best in the West. It's -10 in the South, -19 in the Midwest and -24 in the Northeast.

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:

NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Forty percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 39 percent last week. The highest percentage of Americans rating the economy as excellent or good was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.