Confidence Ends 2006 Stronger Than When Year Began

Jan. 2, 2007 — -- Consumer confidence remains in the negative range at the end of the year, after several weeks of matching its positive peak for 2006. Even with these recent negative ratings, the last quarter of 2006 saw confidence surge well above its yearly average.

Forget about those post-Christmas sales; positive ratings of the buying climate remained lower than at the start of the holiday shopping season for the second week in a row. Thirty-eight percent of Americans said it is a good time to buy things. A month ago, 44 percent said so.

The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -3 on its scale of +100 to -100, compared with -2 last week. That's still better than its 2006 average, -10, and its recent low of -19 amid soaring gasoline prices last August.

INDEX -- The CCI survey, conducted weekly since late 1985, is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, buying climate and personal finances. This week, 45 percent say the economy is in good shape, 5 points above the long-term average.

Today, 38 percent call it a good time to buy things, matching the long-term average of this measure. Sixty-three percent say their own finances are in good shape, 6 points above average.

TREND -- The CCI's average of -10 this year makes 2006 the best year (narrowly) since 2001, thanks in large part to a rally that began in August. It's still a long way from its glory days, an average of +29 in 2000 (peaking at +38 in January 2000). But it's also been vastly lower -- an average of -44 in 1992, cratering at -50 that February.

GROUPS -- As usual, the index is higher among college graduates and higher-income Americans. It's +15 among men, while -19 among women. And huge partisan differences remain: The CCI is +39 among Republicans, but -14 among independents and -26 among Democrats.