Recent reports suggest Russia has overtaken Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer, a fact that at first glance could have dire consequences if U.S. companies and consumers become more dependent on Russian oil. But first glances can be deceiving.
Statistics recently published by the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries show that Russia is currently extracting slightly more oil than Saudi Arabia, making it the biggest oil producer in the world, according to a recent story in the Financial Times. Both countries produce slightly more than 9 million barrels of oil per day. The OPEC statistics show that in June 2006 Russia extracted 9.236 million barrels a day, about 46,000 more than Saudi Arabia.
The United States is the world's largest consumer of oil, accounting for about 20 million barrels per day of the world's 86-million-barrel output. At a time when oil supplies are tight and price fluctuations regularly squeeze consumers, Russia's emergence has implications for the oil market.
U.S. and Russian relations have cooled recently as Moscow asserts its independence from Washington. The country's leaders have distanced themselves from the Bush administration and become more aggressive creating political alliances with anti-U.S. states like Venezuela.
So as Russia's oil-fueled economic recovery puts the country on more solid footing. Will American companies and the government find themselves overly dependent on a Russia that is no longer a geopolitical ally?
Probably not, or at least not financially, say oil industry sources.
The transportation pipeline from the Middle East -- from Saudi Arabia in particular -- to the United States, involving supertankers that ship to refineries in the Gulf of Mexico, is much more established than anything between the United States and Russia. Because of this, it's unlikely U.S. companies and importers will immediately become more dependent on Russian oil.
"The logistics of getting Russian oil over to the U.S. are difficult because of infrastructure issues," said John Parry, an oil analyst with John S. Herold. "In reality, because of the function of the market, oil finds its most economic destination. Russian oil is going to find a home in eastern Europe first."
Worldwide, oil consumption has grown faster than production over the last decade. In the late 1990s, the world consumed about 80 million barrels of oil per day and produced about 85 million. The daily surplus of 5 million kept the market in check in the event of a shortage.
Today worldwide consumption is closer to 85 million barrels, and production levels hover near 86 million, leaving a surplus of only about 1 million barrels per day. The shrinking surplus has made markets much more volatile and prone to price spikes when production levels falter, as they did when refining capacity went temporarily off-line after Hurricane Katrina last fall.
According to Parry, the world needs to continue finding sources of oil, regardless of the geopolitical philosophies of the source country.
"If anything, it's welcome, because there's so little surplus in the world right now," he said. "Russian oil is not going to compete with Saudi Arabia right now because of the infrastructure issues and because the world needs as much oil as it can get."