If you're being affected by the downturn in housing or financial services, hang in there. At some point, those industries will rebound. Others should be so lucky.
Just look at apparel manufacturers in the United States. According to the Labor Department, their ranks are expected to decrease by 54 percent while their output falls more than 43 percent between 2006 and 2016. Then there's the ailing printing business. Jobs in that U.S. industry will drop by 22 percent during the next decade, with output falling by 12 percent.
They're classic examples of twin death knells for industries: foreign competition and technology. Why make clothes in the U.S. when the labor is cheaper in China? Who wants to publish the old-fashioned way when it's cheaper to use the Internet?
So which U.S. industries are dying fastest? It's a crucial question for a host of folks, from investors to workers to government officials looking to avoid economic disaster. For answers, we turned to research firm IBISWorld for projections and analysis of declining industries from 2007 to 2012. We looked at projected changes in industry employment, revenue and gross output. As much as possible, we avoided manufacturing since it's widely known to be in decline.
The most surprising find: While technology is changing the face of many industries, the firms within them are often doing quite well. One strategy for surviving a technological onslaught is to control the change itself. AT&T and Verizon, the largest wired telecommunications firms, are hardly worried that more than 1 million phone "land lines" are expected to be switched off each year between now and 2012. Both of those firms saw their wireless subscriber numbers surge in 2007.
Online video rental firm Netflix, which mails DVDs to subscribers' doorsteps, was quick to foresee the death of the mom-and-pop video store. Last year the company's revenue and net income were up 21 percent and 36 percent, respectively, above 2006 levels. Industry giant Blockbuster was slower to adapt, but it too now offers Web-subscription for movie rentals. Both firms realize that downloadable video is the industry's future. Netflix already offers that service for some movies. Blockbuster's plan is still in the works.
Another way to avoid disaster? Diversify. In response to decades of declining circulation and shaky print advertising numbers, newspaper publishers are expanding their holdings in non-traditional ways. The two largest, Gannett and Tribune, own a stake Careerbuilder.com, the online job search Web site. In 2005, The New York Times Co. bought About.com, a general information site. Will it work? The jury is out. Worth noting, though--the industry's most successful transition is also its most radical. The Washington Post Co. secured their future by buying Kaplan Learning centers, morphing the company into an "information" firm and leaning on the new entity, rather than their news operations, to drive growth.