Consumer Confidence at Five-Year High, but May Run Out of Gas

March 13, 2007 — -- Consumer confidence hit a five-year high in the latest ABC News/Washington Post survey. But gas prices may yet catch up.

The ABC/Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at +2 on its scale of +100 to -100, compared with -1 last week and a 2007 average of -2. It hasn't been this high in more than five years, since Oct. 7, 2001.

Whether it holds up is another question. Confidence in the past has been highly sensitive to gasoline prices, and the average price of a gallon of regular unleaded has risen by 39 cents in the last six weeks. There can be a lag before rising gas prices negatively impact consumer confidence. But ultimately, they usually do.

The ABC/Post index is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, the buying climate and their personal finances. This week, 47 percent rate the economy positively, almost matching the five-year high of 48 percent, last seen three weeks ago, and seven points above its long-term average, 40 percent in weekly polls since late 1985.

Sixty-four percent rate their personal finances positively, compared with a long-term average of 57 percent. (It hit 65 percent in mid-November, the most since August 2001.) And 42 percent call it a good time to buy things; the average is 38 percent.

The CCI's above its long-term average, -9, and well up from its 2006 low, -19 last August. Before this week, it hadn't strayed beyond a range from -3 to +1 since Jan. 14, and, again, had not reached +2 since Oct. 7, 2001.

The index is higher in better-off groups -- far better among higher-income Americans, those married, college graduates and whites. It's +11 among men and -7 among women. And partisan differences remain: +36 among Republicans, -1 among independents, -20 among Democrats.

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:

National Economy -- Forty-seven percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 45 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.