What Michelle Obama Isn't Doing for J. Crew

May 20, 2009— -- Every time Michelle Obama wears a cardigan, it happens again: a nationwide gush-fest over the way that the first lady is boosting retailer J. Crew (JCG).

The theory that the first lady has saved the preppy clothing store from a recessionary doomsday fits nicely with the fact that J. Crew stock has doubled in value since the inauguration. Shares have risen from $9.61 per share to $19.23. And TBM for this reason included J. Crew stock in its tongue-in-cheek but successful Obama portfolio.

But is Michelle really the cause here? In a recent research report, courtesy of JPMorgan (JPM), you can find a collection of 10 myths "that along with Easter Bunny," one retail analyst writes, "we're not sure we believe in either." The "Michelle Obama Bounce" is fourth on the list, suggesting that she's had no meaningful impact on the financial standing of the company. In a November earnings conference call, J. Crew CEO Millard Drexler acknowledged Michelle Obama's endorsement as a publicity boon but admitted, "I can't say she drove plus comps," meaning any increase in sales at stores. Her name wasn't mentioned at all in the most recent earnings call in March.

Indeed, it may well be that J. Crew has done more for Michelle Obama than she has done for J. Crew. By wearing the retailer's reasonably priced clothes every now and then, she has convinced American women that she understands them—an invaluable reputation in a recession. While J. Crew is undoubtedly pleased with the free publicity and occasional single-item sales bumps that she provides, the retailer would be doing just fine without her.

So, if it's not Michelle, what has kept the company afloat? There are a few likely explanations. For one thing, the retailer is cutting back. In February, it eliminated 95 positions, stopped matching contributions to 401(k) plans, and sacked merit-based wage increases. Another reason for stability: J. Crew isn't anchored to the sinking shopping mall: Approximately 30 percent of sales come through its catalog and Web site, jcrew.com. Such sales not only offer higher margins, but they can pick up the slack for weak mall traffic. Also, according to analyst estimates, 20 percent of J. Crew's sales come from its outlets, which offer markdowns that are especially appealing in a downturn. And, in its standard stores, it has lowered price points for popular items like ballet flats and jeans.