Stock Market Rally Might Signal Recession's End

July 21, 2009— -- An American public desperately looking for an end to this recession might finally see the light at the end of the tunnel.

We aren't there yet -- and the trip could take some time -- but there are a number of promising indicators.

The biggest signs have come from the stock market. The Dow Jones industrial average was up 104 points Monday, its sixth straight trading day of gains, to close at 8,848. That's up 35 percent from its 12-year closing low of 6547.05 hit on March 9. In July alone, the index has gained 4.75 percent.

The stock market opened higher again today, possibly extending the rally further.

Stocks still have a ways to go. The Dow has yet to break above its high for the year -- 9,034 points hit on Jan. 2 -- and is still down more than 5,000 points, or 37 percent, from its record close of 14,164, hit on Oct. 9, 2007.

But the much-broader Standard & Poor's 500 climbed Monday to its highest finish since November. The Nasdaq composite index had its ninth straight advance Monday and is at its highest mark since Oct. 3.

This puts the market back close to where it was before the fall of Lehman Brothers nearly a year ago but still far away from where it was at its peak, nearly two years ago before the recession started.

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The latest push comes as companies, led by the country's major banks reporting earnings that beat analysts' and traders' expectations, easing concerns that an earlier rally this spring was premature.

"The stock market is a lot like a small child in many ways very emotional, very erratic at times. And they both work best in stable and certain environments," ABC's "Good Morning America" correspondent Bianna Golodryga said this morning from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. "And that's where the stock market sees itself right now. Instead of news that's less bad, we're getting some good news."

Today brought a number of high-interest earning reports from several large companies whose health is often seen as an indicator of the heath of the larger economy.