Poll: Americans Say Economy Getting Worse

N E W  Y O R K, Aug. 18, 2004 -- — Economic optimism slipped slightly this month, with more Americans continuing to say the economy is getting worse than say it’s improving — a different view than President Bush expresses in his re-election campaign.

Monday Bush declared, “The economy is strong, it’s getting stronger.” In the latest ABC News/Money magazine survey, however, fewer than four in 10 say the economy’s in good shape, and fewer still, 24 percent, say it’s improving.

Those views are not necessarily awful for the president: Confidence is average, not worse. It was far weaker in the summer of 1992, when economic discontent pushed his father from office, and indeed remains better than it was in mid-June. But it’s not as rosy as the president’s comments would suggest, indicating he’s got some convincing to do.

OPTIMISM/PESSIMISM — Thirty-eight percent of Americans now say the economy’s getting worse; the 24 percent who say it’s improving is down slightly from 29 percent last month. Economic optimists haven’t outnumbered pessimists since January.

A bit of pessimism, however, is the norm for such views: The numbers today are very near their long-term average in nearly 250 ABC News and ABC/Money polls since 1981: Twenty-one percent optimistic, 38 percent pessimistic. And optimists today are double their number in August 1992.

PARTISANSHIP — Particularly in an election year, political partisanship strongly influences these views. Fifty-four percent of Republicans say the economy’s getting better, while just eight percent say it’s getting worse. Democrats for their part are three times more apt to say it’s worsening than improving. Independents divide about evenly.

In views of current economic conditions, similarly, Republicans are far more positive, Democrats far less so. The ABC/Money Consumer Comfort Index, figured on a scale of +100 to -100, index stands at +37 among Republicans, -13 among independents and -38 among Democrats.